Bold Predictions for 2013

[J35J]

I think Lincecum is done. His fastball velocity and ERA are quickly going in opposite directions. Same with his K% and BB%. Here's the fastball velo drop:



Really seems to wear down as the season goes on. His last three outings this year were all below 90. His 5+ ERA may be a tad unlucky but his underlying numbers say he should still be right around 4. I don't expect him to have an ERA much lower than 4 next season, although the K total will still be good as long as he's healthy.

Agreed.

When actually projecting him for next year I'll probably just use his 2nd half as my metric. 3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP seems like a good risk vs reward line for him.

That seems about right, this years CJ Wilson with a few more K's.