Skin Blues wrote:I think Lincecum is done. His fastball velocity and ERA are quickly going in opposite directions. Same with his K% and BB%. Here's the fastball velo drop:
Really seems to wear down as the season goes on. His last three outings this year were all below 90. His 5+ ERA may be a tad unlucky but his underlying numbers say he should still be right around 4. I don't expect him to have an ERA much lower than 4 next season, although the K total will still be good as long as he's healthy.
Ender wrote:When actually projecting him for next year I'll probably just use his 2nd half as my metric. 3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP seems like a good risk vs reward line for him.
That seems about right, this years CJ Wilson with a few more K's.