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Bold Predictions for 2013

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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:23 am

Ender wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
Ender wrote:The A's finish under .500
The Nationals and Orioles both miss the playoffs (ok the O's aren't so bold~)
Ryan Braun follows up Cabrera with a back to back triple crown.
Billy Hamilton steals 100 bases while posting a sub .300 OBP.
Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitski won't be top 50 players (ok again not so bold if you want to be a realist~).


I'd say the Braun and Hamilton predictions are the only bold ones. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the A's back below .500, just looking at their roster kind of blows my mind.


Just for you then. Lincecum wins the NL CY and I really don't think it so bold.


I think that is quite bold. I'd be surprised if he was any better than the 3rd best pitcher on the Giants next year and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I sure would welcome it though!
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby Ender » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:25 am


I think that is quite bold. I'd be surprised if he was any better than the 3rd best pitcher on the Giants next year and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I sure would welcome it though!


I think for him it was an effort thing and I think next year after this awful season he has renewed purpose and goes back to being his old self. The same way I worry about MCab who seemed to go into this season playing 3B with a focus he hadn't showed in years and it payed off but I can easily see him getting lazy going into next year. We tend to downplay these types of things but they really do play a large factor in things. The mental part of the game directly relates to the physical part.
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:32 am

I could probably check this myself with a search. but was there a thread with bold predictions for THIS season? it could be interesting/funny to look back now after the season to see how good or bad people did at predicting for this season.
usually at the end of the season I take some time to look at "expects" projections from different websites to see how good or bad they did.
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby Ender » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:33 am

SpecialFNK wrote:I could probably check this myself with a search. but was there a thread with bold predictions for THIS season? it could be interesting/funny to look back now after the season to see how good or bad people did at predicting for this season.
usually at the end of the season I take some time to look at "expects" projections from different websites to see how good or bad they did.


There was at least one made by me saying the Nationals would finish under .500~ That didn't work out~.
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:48 am

Ender wrote:

I think that is quite bold. I'd be surprised if he was any better than the 3rd best pitcher on the Giants next year and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I sure would welcome it though!


I think for him it was an effort thing and I think next year after this awful season he has renewed purpose and goes back to being his old self. The same way I worry about MCab who seemed to go into this season playing 3B with a focus he hadn't showed in years and it payed off but I can easily see him getting lazy going into next year. We tend to downplay these types of things but they really do play a large factor in things. The mental part of the game directly relates to the physical part.


It was a combination of poor luck and poor command, especially out of the stretch. It seems like he has no idea where the ball is gonna go if he's not in the wind-up. the strikeout numbers are still there which is re-assuring, and FIP/xFIP does show that he was quite unlucky. I'm definitely buying on a rebound next year, I'd just be surprised if it was a cy young level rebound.
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby ayebatter » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:31 am

SpecialFNK wrote:I could probably check this myself with a search. but was there a thread with bold predictions for THIS season? it could be interesting/funny to look back now after the season to see how good or bad people did at predicting for this season.
usually at the end of the season I take some time to look at "expects" projections from different websites to see how good or bad they did.



Besides the Prediction Forum there's this: but it's all I could find for 2012

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=442204&p=3492455&hilit=predictions#p3492455
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:41 am

I think Lincecum is done. His fastball velocity and ERA are quickly going in opposite directions. Same with his K% and BB%. Here's the fastball velo drop:

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Really seems to wear down as the season goes on. His last three outings this year were all below 90. His 5+ ERA may be a tad unlucky but his underlying numbers say he should still be right around 4. I don't expect him to have an ERA much lower than 4 next season, although the K total will still be good as long as he's healthy.
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby Padsin05 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:59 am

Padres win the NL West

Chase Headley is the MVP of the NL
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:07 am

Brandon Morrow wins the AL Cy Young
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Re: Bold Predictions for 2013

Postby Ender » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:32 am

It won't surprise me if Lincecum is done either, that is why it is bold~. I figured he would age well because by far his best pitch is his change up so a loss in velocity wouldn't be the end of the world for him. When actually projecting him for next year I'll probably just use his 2nd half as my metric. 3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP seems like a good risk vs reward line for him.
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