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Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby chargerss24 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:02 pm

horatio wrote:I fully expect Ian Kennedy and Anibal Sanchez to be absolute monsters next year on the mound but I won't be drafting them again either.


You fully expect them to have monster season, but you won't be drafting them? :-S

You don't sound very confident in them having "monster seasons".
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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby Ender » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:47 am

Dunn didn't revert back to normal. He had a big hot streak which saved an otherwise bad season. his OPS is down almost 80 points from normal, his AVG is down 60 points. Lets be clear on Dunn, he has been in decline for 4 years now, this wasn't just some fluke in 2011, it has been a long steady decline that just had an abnormal spike in 2011.
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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:07 pm

Ender wrote:Dunn didn't revert back to normal. He had a big hot streak which saved an otherwise bad season. his OPS is down almost 80 points from normal, his AVG is down 60 points. Lets be clear on Dunn, he has been in decline for 4 years now, this wasn't just some fluke in 2011, it has been a long steady decline that just had an abnormal spike in 2011.

I'm curious how 2008, 2009 and 2010 was a long steady decline. He seemed pretty consistant to me before falling off a cliff in 2011.
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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:32 pm

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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby Izenhart » Thu Sep 13, 2012 2:25 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Image


LOL

Well in 2010 Dunn's BB/K ratio was 77/199, which was a career low walk total and career high K total. The writing was on the wall as far as the beginning of a decline, but before that I don't see it. He was amazingly consistent from 2004-2009. In fact he was so consistent the BB/K ratio from 2010 was a huge outlier, and people who saw this and predicted a decline as it seems Ended did, passed on him in 2011. I also passed on him and had him on my overrated list that year, but the decline has been anything but steady.
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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby Ender » Thu Sep 13, 2012 3:40 pm

2004-2008 he was a 100+ R guy. 2009-2012 he fell into the mid 80s most years. 2004-2008 he was a 5-10 SB guy, 2009 to 2012 he has dropped to 1 or 2. His AVG has dropped from that 240-265 range to around .200. The K% has steadily gone up, the BB% steadily gone down. OPS+ is one of the most flawed stats you can find because of the poor park factors so I won't even go into graph but if you want to look at his offensive production wOBA points the more realistic picture and it has been in decline 3 years now.

Adam Dunn used to be a fantasy monster who was underrated but the loss of R, SB and now AVG and the small chipping away at the HR have made his fantasy value steadily dive since 2007. He has gone from a 100/40/100/10 guy who hurts you in AVG to a 85/38/100/1 guy who destroys you in AVG.
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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby benb18a » Thu Sep 13, 2012 4:15 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Image


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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby Izenhart » Thu Sep 13, 2012 4:44 pm

The loss of a handful of steals a season is expected from a guy (who is now 32) who was never fast and only had double digit steals in his rookie year back in 2002. His decline as a hitter is what we are really talking about here.

His batting average in 2002 was .249. He followed that up with a .215 average in 116 games, but his HR per AB totals saw a nice spike, and people saw 40 HR potential. He realized it with 46 bombs and hit .266. His averages following that year were .247, .234, back up to .264, .236, .267 and .260. So in 2010 he posted his third best BA, despite career low walks and career high K's.

His K rate didn't steadily go up. From 2002 to 2009 his K% rate was consistently between 31% and 34%. In 2009 his K rate was 32%. In 2010 he struck out 199 times but his K rate was still just 35%, a new career high but only slightly. in 2004 and 2006 he struck out 195 and 194 times and had a 34% K rate. His BA in 2010 was .260, which was his third highest of his career. The only thing about his stats that show any type of decline was his walk total took a dip in 2010, and his .356 OBP was the lowest of any full season he played. Even then, it was just 9 points under his previous low.

Any decline up to that point would strictly be fantasy related, because his run totals after leaving Cincy dropped about 20 a year and he wasn't going to get you any steals. People were drafting him knowing this and there was no reason not to expect a .250ish average and 35ish bombs with 80 runs and 100 RBI going into 2011.

In 2011, his K rate suddenly spiked to 42.6% and as far as I can see it is the first season he actually showed any type of regression. This season his walk rate is back up, his home runs per at bat is the second best of his career, and everything else looks normal for him except that K rate is up at 41% again, which would explain why he is hitting 33 points lower than his career average. Yes, he destroys your average now, and is certainly not the same hitter he once was, but pre-2011 I just don't see the clear cut decline you say there was with him.
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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby Ender » Thu Sep 13, 2012 6:10 pm

His K% was 26% for most of his prime and jumped into the 30% starting in 2010. Not sure where you are getting your numbers but they aren't using the proper math for K%. And yes losing 15 R and 6 to 8 SB a year is a big loss, especially when you drop 40 points in AVG the next couple years as well.

To put it in perspective here are the fantasy values I give Dunn with my system from 2004 until this year.

38
30
25
35
21
25
25
-28
14

From 2004 to 2007 he averaged 32 points per year. Since 2007 he has maxed out at 25 and even if he didn't get hurt this year he was going to max out under 25.
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Re: Who will be the 2013 version of Adam Dunn?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:11 am

Are we discussing fantasy value or actual skill decline? Seems it was the latter, until it was shown that there wasn't actually any skill decline prior to 2011. You've moved on to a different topic for some reason and you're arguing against yourself, as far as I can tell.
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