I posted this last week, but be wary of small sample sizes, especially at the end of the season. Of his 10 starts, he hasn't faced a single team that is fighting for a playoff spot. He's had 2 games against Miami, 2 against the Mets, 2 against the Padres, 1 against Houston, 1 against Colorado (not in Coors), and 2 against the Nationals. The Nationals are the only team that has had more than a 0% chance of making the playoffs when he faced them, and they're coasting to a first place finish. He's been excellent, but not only is this a very small sample size, he's got a list of opponents that would make 2011 Doug Fister jealous.
Skin Blues wrote:I posted this last week, but be wary of small sample sizes, especially at the end of the season. Of his 10 starts, he hasn't faced a single team that is fighting for a playoff spot. He's had 2 games against Miami, 2 against the Mets, 2 against the Padres, 1 against Houston, 1 against Colorado (not in Coors), and 2 against the Nationals. The Nationals are the only team that has had more than a 0% chance of making the playoffs when he faced them, and they're coasting to a first place finish. He's been excellent, but not only is this a very small sample size, he's got a list of opponents that would make 2011 Doug Fister jealous.
Yeah, I agree with all of this as well....for the most part.
Skin Blues wrote:I posted this last week, but be wary of small sample sizes, especially at the end of the season. Of his 10 starts, he hasn't faced a single team that is fighting for a playoff spot. He's had 2 games against Miami, 2 against the Mets, 2 against the Padres, 1 against Houston, 1 against Colorado (not in Coors), and 2 against the Nationals. The Nationals are the only team that has had more than a 0% chance of making the playoffs when he faced them, and they're coasting to a first place finish. He's been excellent, but not only is this a very small sample size, he's got a list of opponents that would make 2011 Doug Fister jealous.
While that's true, how many good hitting, dangerous line ups are there in the NL? I think that factor is a bit overstated.
At this point I think it would be foolish to expect an ERA over 4 next year for Medlen
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
There aren't a lot of great teams in the NL but over half are at least still in the palyoff hunt. He's made 8 of his 10 starts against the most washed up teams in the league. That's not to write him off, because he still has an xFIP/SIERA of about 3 and has a decent K rate. But a .260 BABIP and 95% LOB will absolutely not last. I don't think his ERA will balloon north of 4 but I'd be realistic with him. Maybe expect mid-high 3's ERA and 7.5 K/9. That's still pretty good. Just not the absolute beat he appears to be right now.
13K's in 7 IP against a red hot Nationals team is no fluke. This guy is for real. Is he top of your fantasy rotation for real? No. But he certainly will be considered for my #2 starter. Even if the LOB and BABIP fall off a bit... look where he's starting - a 0.76 ERA as a starter. How far can it fall off and still be below 3?
Nerfherders wrote:13K's in 7 IP against a red hot Nationals team is no fluke. This guy is for real. Is he top of your fantasy rotation for real? No. But he certainly will be considered for my #2 starter. Even if the LOB and BABIP fall off a bit... look where he's starting - a 0.76 ERA as a starter. How far can it fall off and still be below 3?
There's no way I'd trust him as my #2 starter next season in standard leagues. #3 maybe, and even then I'd be very weary and uncomfortable. He's got #2 potential, but realistic expectation should be as a 3/4 fantasy starter.
Nerfherders wrote:13K's in 7 IP against a red hot Nationals team is no fluke. This guy is for real. Is he top of your fantasy rotation for real? No. But he certainly will be considered for my #2 starter. Even if the LOB and BABIP fall off a bit... look where he's starting - a 0.76 ERA as a starter. How far can it fall off and still be below 3?
There's no way I'd trust him as my #2 starter next season in standard leagues. #3 maybe, and even then I'd be very weary and uncomfortable. He's got #2 potential, but realistic expectation should be as a 3/4 fantasy starter.
This. All thoughts about getting him on the cheaper side next year is out the widows now. Especially if he performs well in the postseason for Atlanta. Someone in every league will think that they're the wiser and reach. I generally wait on pitching. He'll be long gone before I would even consider him.
Matt Moore and Yu Darvish accomplished far, far less than Medlen did and still went for decent bucks in Auction leagues, averaging maybe 20-25 dollars.
They accomplished less in MLB, but not in professional baseball. It can be argued that most of Medlen's opponents are pushing the boundary of being called MLB teams, anyway
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by Skin Blues » Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:21 am 
