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Kris Medlen

Postby jcook3127 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:43 pm

Where does this kid go next year? Give me a couple starters that you might sandwich around him on your big board..

He's been unreal since given a starters job but I don't know much about him
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby Inukchuk » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:54 pm

He had TJ which knocked him out of last season, but he's always been touted as having a great skill set. I feel as if his small track record will push him down in drafts where most will label him a later round sleeper, but I plan on going all in on him as my #5, if possible.

I'd expect a low 3's ERA with around 7.5K/9
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:37 pm

It's only 7 starts, 6 of which came against teams that had already given up hopes on making the playoffs long before he faced them. He's certainly been lights-out, so it'll be interesting to see how September goes. He's a long way from being next year's version of Brandon Beachy, in my opinion.
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:17 pm

Inukchuk wrote:I'd expect a low 3's ERA with around 7.5K/9


I think this is unbelievably ambitious. He'll be good, but low 3's is overboard. I'm thinking his ERA will be closer to 4 than 3 when all is said and done next year.
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby Izenhart » Tue Sep 04, 2012 5:37 pm

I'd rather gamble on him as a #5 than take a Mark Buehrle type. I have no idea when I'd draft him but he's on my midround target list. I say after round 10 or so I'll be looking his way.
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Sep 05, 2012 12:15 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:I'd expect a low 3's ERA with around 7.5K/9


I think this is unbelievably ambitious. He'll be good, but low 3's is overboard. I'm thinking his ERA will be closer to 4 than 3 when all is said and done next year.


Considering his peripherals throughout his career (FIP and xFIP under 3.5 for every year but one), along with his current performances, I think the phrase "unbelievably ambitious" doesn't do Medlen credit. He certainly has the ability to do it, and for what I would imagine will be a reasonable price next year. As was mentioned, I'd take him over the Mark Buehrles of the world any day.
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:00 am

I agree with Inuk. Low 3's ERA and that k rate wouldnt surprise me. I imagine he will be drafted in the low teens, maybe round 13ish?
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:53 pm

Picked him up for a spot start when I still thought McDonald was (somehow) worthy of my last keeper spot in a deep league. I'll be hard-pressed to not keep him for a buck now as he's impressed more than my big-ticket guys down the stretch 8-o ;-D
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby OBPlover » Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:57 am

His peripherals aren't just good, the're otherworldly. 5 to 1 K/BB ration and only 4 HRs allowed in over 120 innings. There's no reason to assume he's going to fall apart next year.

The real question for the baseball philosopher - suppose the Braves make it to the post season and have that 1 game wild card and Kris is available. Do they give the most important start of the season to the best pitcher of the last 6 weeks or to an established veteran like Tim Hudson?

As a side note, I picked up Medlen in my main league about 6 weeks ago, noticing he had a spiffy 25K-5BB and I needed someone. Because of Medlen I did very well. He anchored my entire pitching staff after Cueto and Vogelsong started falling apart.

Thanks Kris!
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Re: Kris Medlen

Postby J35J » Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:46 am

When your command is top notch it's hard not to be at least better than average so if he can maintain that then he should be fine. He will likely come back to the pack some though...his BABIP, HR/FB and LOB% all will revert back to some normalcy. He's also more of a "finesse righty" which is a difficult thing to be in the majors so that's got to be a little concerning if you are looking at him being a top 20SPer or something. He's got all his pitches working for him right now, he's locked in, I'm not sure I'm going to expect the same level of "locked in-ness" next year but he should at least be someone to draft and roster all year long, which isn't a slap in the face. I'd expect more numbers like 2010, and be happy with more if he gave it, than go in next year expecting him to be a ton more than that and getting let down. You also got to think he's not likely going to throw a ton of innings next year either so that's got to be taken into account as well.

3.50 ERA, give or take
1.20 WHIP, give or take
7.5 k/9, give or take
1.7 bb/9, give or take
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