buffalobillsrul2002 wrote:1. I'm not sure that looking at BABIP with 2 strikes is what OBPLover is looking to define here. I'd be willing to bet that strikeout% doesn't coorelate that highly with 2-strike BABIP (i haven't pulled the data though). What I would be willing to say is that guys who strikeout more have more success when they do put the ball in play (success can also include HR and more extra base hits, which is being lost if you look solely at BABIP). And this could be for 2 reasons; either because swinging harder is likely to result in the ball traveling faster/harder off the bat, or because hitters who don't hit the ball hard/far and strike out a lot probably aren't seeing much success and therefore aren't in MLB. Another advantage that power hitters get is that pitchers usually fear them more (which is foolish but that's how it is), so they are able to draw more walks.
Suppose on a 2 strike count. A high K% swings and mises since it was a quality pitch. A low K% swings and makes contact. Do you think that low K% hitter will have a comparable batting average as he would in a no-strike or 1-strike count? Of course not. In other words, the same pitch that strikes out Adam Dunn, is not likely to be turned into a base hit by say, Marco Scutaro. BAtting averages on an 0-2 count will be much lower than say, a 2-0 count.
The only thing I concede is that very fast runners can purposefully cut down their swings to make contact on 2 strikes and draw out some extra infield hits. But this won't make a large difference.
3. The reason guys like Willingham get overlooked in fantasy isn't that they aren't useful; it's that they have little upside. In Willingham, you know you are getting a 2-category contirbutor (runs/RBI) who will hurt you in SB and AVG. And the general feeling is that .270/30 HR can be replaced off the wire relatively easily, if you know how to ride the hot hand. What I do find interesting abotu this is that the high-upside power guys (like Bruce/Stanton) tend to be valued a ton higher. I think that's more Bruce/Stanton being overvalued though than it is Mr. Willingham being undervalued (though I agree willingham is undervalued as well; I ended up with him in the 15th round or later in almost all my drafts as a UTIL/bench hitter).
Let me clarify, because I think people are misunderstanding. I am not saying nor have I ever said that Eric Hosmer should have gone for less than Josh Willingham. What I am saying is that the gap between the two players was too high.
There were lots of players in the same boat as Willingham, offering success in just 2 categories and not much else but going for a lot more in the average league. E.g. Nick Swisher
Last edited by OBPlover on Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:53 am, edited 4 times in total.