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Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:55 am

OBPlover wrote:
This is just data from this year, but it disagrees.


That's a chart that badly needs a legend. Where did you cut and paste from Fangraphs? Fangraphs is one of those Sabremetric friendly sites where there is much disagreement on the importance of strikeouts for hitters. Some say that it's not important at all (like I do) and some say that it's at least somewhat important. But I have yet to read a concensus strong and united and preachy about using K's to predict the success of hitters as a strong determinant (ie fantasy where money/pride is on the line).

Is it not common sense though? You are down two strikes and you do not want to strike out so you adjust your swing ("shorten"). You put in an improved emphasis on making contact AND get more hits on balls in play? Defies common sense.

Anyways, here's some more food for thought, strikeout rates jumped in the so-called "steroid era". Look at the late 90's-mid 2000's. Does that mean pitchers were having an easy time of things compared to now? Not only did HR's and walks rise but batting averages were also higher than where they were 10 years before or where they are now.


I made the chart myself with K% (x-axis) vs BABIP (y-axis). Very little correlation between the two from the data for qualified players this year.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:03 am

Also the hitters that strike out a lot (and thus must hit for more power to make up for it), tend to be fly ball hitters and fly balls have the lowest BABIP of any batted ball.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:23 am

kab21 wrote:I've never said that I think K's are meaningless. You've said that K's are meaningless. I've said that K's are alright if there are a lot of BB's (and power) to go along with them. Which returns us to K:BB...

I have also said that K's are meaningful in fantasy because K's have a good correlation to BA. that stat is overrated in real life though.


here's what you said exactly I copied and pasted:

"You directly said that K:BB is meaningless. Nobody said that K's were meaningful but somehow you think you are right because you posted an article showing that half of the K:BB equation is meaningless. K:BB is actually an outstanding stat to evaluate players with.

So that lead me to believe you were arguing in favor of K/BB as a stat without K's being important. Call me old fashioned, but I tend to respond with what people write.


In other words, a player with a lot of strikeouts is trading them off for a better BABIP.
This is not true. BAPIP is influenced by many things but number of K's is not one of the biggest contributors.


Without crunching the numbers I find it very hard to believe there is a correlation to strikeouts and extra base hits without having a correlation between strikeouts and BABIP. It just makes sense.

willingham has had a herniated disc that has flared up in other seasons. I consider that something to be concerned about for a long time especially when a player is his mid 30's.


His main injury in 2010 was his knee. Anyways, you are completely avoiding some of my points. He DID average 130 games in 6 seasons. He generally went for real cheap. A lot of injury plagued guys went for a lot more. Nelson Cruz, CA-Rod etc. This can not be purely based on logic can it?
E6 has played 6 seasons in the Rogers Centre and Great American SmallPark. I refuse to believe that he hasn't always hit in hitter friendly ballparks. If anything he faces better pitching now.


The purpose of looking at his ballpark is not to devalue his value in the past. The purpose is to look at the RC as a hedge and assign him extra value based on playing in a hitters park. His numbers should always be somewhat decent based on that alone, which gives him extra upside.
Let me ask you a question, if Josh Willinham goes up for bid for a buck next year are you going to pay it or assume he gets injured again?

I paid more than a buck for Willingham last year so it's a silly question. I guess I'm unimpressed by the quality of leagues that you play in since you are claiming that E6, Willingham and earlier Ortiz were getting picked in the last rd. it appears that I liked Willingham more than you did this year.
Willingham was picked 189th (by me) and 215th. E6 was picked 188th and 186th.[/quote]
This has nothing to do with anything. Look at the average ranking of Willingham, E6 and Ortiz and compare their rankings with Hosmer and Lawrie and ask yourself if this difference is justifiable on stats alone. That's the entire point.
Since you took Willingham and paid more than a dollar for him, (And I'm assuming you didn't pay 30+ for Lawrie) than I really don't see why you even bothered arguing with me in the first place.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:38 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:Also the hitters that strike out a lot (and thus must hit for more power to make up for it), tend to be fly ball hitters and fly balls have the lowest BABIP of any batted ball.



Ahh then I see the problem. You need to compare K rates with BABIP on a 2 strike count. If a hitter hits a flyball on the first pitch than Strikeouts are not really coming into question.

Also, I'm not certain I am reading your chart correctly but it does seem to show a slight positive correlation in favor of higher BABIP than lower.

Just curious, you agreed that Hosmer was overvalued this year and Willingham was undervalued. IF you are satisfied with Hosmer's projections due to his K rate, why do you feel this way?
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby Inukchuk » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:46 am

OBPlover wrote:
Also, I'm not certain I am reading your chart correctly but it does seem to show a slight positive correlation in favor of higher BABIP than lower.


Variance is on the chart as r squared. Square root it to get the correlation. Mathematically, it's awful. It doesn't matter what the chart 'seems to show'.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 12:27 am

1. I'm not sure that looking at BABIP with 2 strikes is what OBPLover is looking to define here. I'd be willing to bet that strikeout% doesn't coorelate that highly with 2-strike BABIP (i haven't pulled the data though). What I would be willing to say is that guys who strikeout more have more success when they do put the ball in play (success can also include HR and more extra base hits, which is being lost if you look solely at BABIP). And this could be for 2 reasons; either because swinging harder is likely to result in the ball traveling faster/harder off the bat, or because hitters who don't hit the ball hard/far and strike out a lot probably aren't seeing much success and therefore aren't in MLB. Another advantage that power hitters get is that pitchers usually fear them more (which is foolish but that's how it is), so they are able to draw more walks.

2. Strikeouts are extremely important in real-life and fantasy. They are automatic outs (if you don't hit the ball you don't get on base). It's possible to overcome a lot of strikeouts and still be a good hitter (in reality hitting comes down to essentially 3 tools; contact, eye, and power). If you do one of the three elite, then you are probably a mediocre hitter. If you do two of the three elite, then you are a very good hitter. If you do all three well, then you are an incredible hitter (Pujols).

3. The reason guys like Willingham get overlooked in fantasy isn't that they aren't useful; it's that they have little upside. In Willingham, you know you are getting a 2-category contirbutor (runs/RBI) who will hurt you in SB and AVG. And the general feeling is that .270/30 HR can be replaced off the wire relatively easily, if you know how to ride the hot hand. What I do find interesting abotu this is that the high-upside power guys (like Bruce/Stanton) tend to be valued a ton higher. I think that's more Bruce/Stanton being overvalued though than it is Mr. Willingham being undervalued (though I agree willingham is undervalued as well; I ended up with him in the 15th round or later in almost all my drafts as a UTIL/bench hitter).
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby BJSFAN123 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:48 pm

Adam Laroche has been an amazing pickup for me when Votto went down. He's going to finish the season with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI and an average that doesn't hurt you.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sun Sep 09, 2012 12:38 am

Chase Headley. Guy could basically have been had for nothing, is never talked about, and is having a great season. He's already almost at 100 RBIs on the freaking Padres.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby Izenhart » Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:19 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:Chase Headley. Guy could basically have been had for nothing, is never talked about, and is having a great season. He's already almost at 100 RBIs on the freaking Padres.


Chase who?
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby benb18a » Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:29 am

How has Chase Utley compiled nearly 100 RBIs sitting out half the year?
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
BN: Howard, Rizzo, Donaldson
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Peavy Sale, Valverde, Axford, Greinke, Marcum, Estrada, Capuano, Hughes, Haren

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