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Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby J35J » Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:12 am

OBPlover wrote:I rarely ask for help in return.

Don't be silly, you don't need any help from anyone around here...we are mindless, Yahoo clique followers.


OBPlover wrote:I am right, far, far more often than I am wrong.

Sure you are...this is why you'd not be looking for any help from us shlubs.


OBPlover wrote:Let me ask you a question, every year there are dozens of players who either perform far above or below expectations. Every year there are lists and "cheat sheets" telling people who to take and in what order.

Do you think being a consistently good fantasy performer will follow from simply going with the herd and trying to get luckier than the other owners? The same owners using the same lists and cheat sheets?

I'm assuming you think this site is full of people "going with the herd" and aren't very good fantasy performers. Not to burst your bubble though, but if you are in a league full of intelligent owners then, yes, luck plays a huge role in fantasy sports. :-X


OBPlover wrote:When players perform far better or worse than expected, do you see this as the luck of the draw, or is this a mystery and a puzzle waiting to be solved, learned from and used to make someone a better player than they were before?

Hopefully, you feel the latter is correct. People are coming to you for advice. Shouldn't you feel like you have something unqiue to offer that they can't just look up on Fangraphs?

So what is your unique advice here? All I've heard is, you're all mindless Yahoo clique followers. Your a toad if you liked Hosmer this year and your a mad genious if you liked Willingham. I mean, thats all rock solid advice right there...keep up the good work.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:27 pm

You seem to be suffering from some kind of paranoia where you think I've personally insulted you. I never have. But if you feel that way than I apologize.

If you read throughly you can see that I also followed in the trap and took Hosmer way too early. I got caught up in the wave too.

Otherwise,I don't think I've said anything too surprisng or insulting. Would you not agree that psychology can be an important aspect to fantasy baseball play? When you are playing with a group of guys online and they tell you they are all from say, New York, would not a more effective strategy to be to nominate players from New York and let them overspend on their favorites?

When it's the middle of the season and you think an opposing owner will trade away one of their disappointing star players for cheap, isn't this using psychology as an advantage?l

Ok, I think you would agree that psychology plays an important part to the game of fantasy baseball. But you get quickly offended when I suggest that many people overvalued Hosmer or Lawrie and many others due to psychology? Hmmm is that not possible?? It's not meant to be offensive. It's only offensive when people start to gang up on the person who looks at that differently. If you go onto Yahoo Sports and go back through the archives you will read posts about Hosmer. You can read how any critics of his of his upcoming "superstardom" were berated.

As far as assistance. Just do aa search with my username and see some of my advice. Way back in June or July, someone asked if they should trade away Edwin Encarnacion. A lot of people felt he should because he was overachieving. I told him to hang onto EE. Why? I noticed his Walk rate had spiked substantially. Just like I will recommend now that EE is a changed player and a huge dropoff for 2013 is not likely. When someone asked if he should pickup Juan Pierre (after Victorino and Pence were traded) I said No. Not because I didn't like Pierre but because it seemed like Philly was going with a youth movement and despite the job openings, he would be looking at less playing time. (Turns out I was right about this).

Not saying I have always been right But I do help whenever I can.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby kab21 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:51 pm

If you don't see that K:BB is meaningful then there is nothing that I can say to change your mind. In my opinion it is one of the best basic stat evaluation tools for hitters but I guess you feel okay about throwing it out because of an article that only mentions K's.

I really can't see how you think a 33 yr old with recurring back problems is not a huge injury risk. I not only look at how much time he has missed but also the types of injuries that he's suffered. Broken bones usually heal but back injuries usually don't go away especially when you start hitting your mid 30's. As a Twins fan I expect him to miss significantly more time next season.

If you don't want to consider how much time willingham misses every year then look at the stats that he finishes up with. His career avg's per season are .260, 22 HR's, 64 R's, 72 RBI's and 4 SB's. These are okay but none of those numbers are that interesting in fantasy esp when combined with the low avg and SB's. Encarnacion's per season avg's are .265, 17, 58, 60 and 4. These numbers frankly stink even at 3B and they nearly match his 2011 numbers. Both of these players have been awesome in 2012 but there were reasons that they were getting drafted in rds 12-18. And that reason is that they have 6 yr track records of being entirely mediocre.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:01 pm

kab21 wrote:If you don't see that K:BB is meaningful then there is nothing that I can say to change your mind. In my opinion it is one of the best basic stat evaluation tools for hitters but I guess you feel okay about throwing it out because of an article that only mentions K's.


Here is another article to explain why striekouts are meaningless for hitters

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2617

I just can't understand how you can think it makes sense that K's is meaningless but K/BB is meaningful. What you want to say is that walks are important, which I agree. But you don't need to look at K/BB to value walks.

I really can't see how you think a 33 yr old with recurring back problems is not a huge injury risk. I not only look at how much time he has missed but also the types of injuries that he's suffered. Broken bones usually heal but back injuries usually don't go away especially when you start hitting your mid 30's. As a Twins fan I expect him to miss significantly more time next season.


You really don't have stats to back up your claim that back injuries take longer to heal and are more reoccurring than any other form of injury. If you do than post it.

If you don't want to consider how much time willingham misses every year then look at the stats that he finishes up with. His career avg's per season are .260, 22 HR's, 64 R's, 72 RBI's and 4 SB's. These are okay but none of those numbers are that interesting in fantasy esp when combined with the low avg and SB's. Encarnacion's per season avg's are .265, 17, 58, 60 and 4. These numbers frankly stink even at 3B and they nearly match his 2011 numbers. Both of these players have been awesome in 2012 but there were reasons that they were getting drafted in rds 12-18. And that reason is that they have 6 yr track records of being entirely mediocre.


A) They weren't getting drafted in rounds 12-18, they were going much later than that. Let me ask you a question, if Josh Willinham goes up for bid for a buck next year are you going to pay it or assume he gets injured again?
B) EE's second half numbers (following his transistion to 1B/DH) look like this .291/.382 /.504 .887 OPS. You can't really use total averages for a guy like EE because 1) His sucky defense was getting him benched from games. 2) In previous years he did not always benefit from a good hitter's park like the Roger's Centre. 3) It seemed likely that a move to DH would help him relax and concentrate on his hitting.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:16 pm

OBPlover wrote:
kab21 wrote:If you don't see that K:BB is meaningful then there is nothing that I can say to change your mind. In my opinion it is one of the best basic stat evaluation tools for hitters but I guess you feel okay about throwing it out because of an article that only mentions K's.


Here is another article to explain why striekouts are meaningless for hitters

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=2617


Ks are pretty clearly meaningful. The less you put a ball in play, the less hits you are going to get, it's that simple. Sure a strikeout isn't much different than any other out, but other outs are balls that had chances to be hits, Ks do not. That can be seen in how strikeouts relate to AVG and OBP in that data. The positive data comes from the fact that players who tend to strikeout a lot also tend to have more power because they simply have to have power to make it to the majors (a hitter with no power who strikes out a ton isn't gonna get very far in baseball). Correlation =/= causation and such. It's pretty clear that the best hitters are those who hit for power, take walks, and don't strike out much. Guys who do two of the three can still be good players, but just ignoring strikeouts is like saying Adam Dunn is the same hitter as Albert Pujols.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:35 am

[
Ks are pretty clearly meaningful. The less you put a ball in play, the less hits you are going to get, it's that simple. Sure a strikeout isn't much different than any other out, but other outs are balls that had chances to be hits, Ks do not. That can be seen in how strikeouts relate to AVG and OBP in that data. The positive data comes from the fact that players who tend to strikeout a lot also tend to have more power because they simply have to have power to make it to the majors (a hitter with no power who strikes out a ton isn't gonna get very far in baseball). Correlation =/= causation and such. It's pretty clear that the best hitters are those who hit for power, take walks, and don't strike out much. Guys who do two of the three can still be good players, but just ignoring strikeouts is like saying Adam Dunn is the same hitter as Albert Pujols.


Hmm now that I think about it. I should have rephrased myself a bit. Strikeouts are meaningful in the sense that they are a failed result to swing for a hit and missing, creating an out.

But what we really are concerned with is looking at a player's K rate and determining if that leads to an overall better or worse fantasy performance, in terms of Batting Average, Home Runs, etc.

Strikeouts are the price the good hitter willingly pays for making harder contact. Swinging harder is a gamble, and if he is good, he will come out ahead. His extra strikeouts will be more than compensated for by extra hits and homers. (Ditto for the risk of strikeout incurred by being extra selective and going deeper into counts, which not only increases hardness of contact but raises walk rate.)

In other words, a player with a lot of strikeouts is trading them off for a better BABIP.
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Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby lastingsgriller » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:48 am

This argument hurts my brain.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:58 am

OBPlover wrote:In other words, a player with a lot of strikeouts is trading them off for a better BABIP.


This is just data from this year, but it disagrees.

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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby kab21 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:11 am

I've never said that I think K's are meaningless. You've said that K's are meaningless. I've said that K's are alright if there are a lot of BB's (and power) to go along with them. Which returns us to K:BB...

I have also said that K's are meaningful in fantasy because K's have a good correlation to BA. that stat is overrated in real life though.

In other words, a player with a lot of strikeouts is trading them off for a better BABIP.

This is not true. BAPIP is influenced by many things but number of K's is not one of the biggest contributors.

willingham has had a herniated disc that has flared up in other seasons. I consider that something to be concerned about for a long time especially when a player is his mid 30's.

E6 has played 6 seasons in the rogers Centre and Great American SmallPark. I refuse to believe that he hasn't always hit in hitter friendly ballparks. If anything he faces better pitching now.

Let me ask you a question, if Josh Willinham goes up for bid for a buck next year are you going to pay it or assume he gets injured again?


I paid more than a buck for Willingham last year so it's a silly question. I guess I'm unimpressed by the quality of leagues that you play in since you are claiming that E6, Willingham and earlier Ortiz were getting picked in the last rd. it appears that I liked Willingham more than you did this year.

Willingham was picked 189th (by me) and 215th. E6 was picked 188th and 186th.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:54 am

This is just data from this year, but it disagrees.


That's a chart that badly needs a legend. Where did you cut and paste from Fangraphs? Fangraphs is one of those Sabremetric friendly sites where there is much disagreement on the importance of strikeouts for hitters. Some say that it's not important at all (like I do) and some say that it's at least somewhat important. But I have yet to read a concensus strong and united and preachy about using K's to predict the success of hitters as a strong determinant (ie fantasy where money/pride is on the line).

Is it not common sense though? You are down two strikes and you do not want to strike out so you adjust your swing ("shorten"). You put in an improved emphasis on making contact AND get more hits on balls in play? Defies common sense.

Anyways, here's some more food for thought, strikeout rates jumped in the so-called "steroid era". Look at the late 90's-mid 2000's. Does that mean pitchers were having an easy time of things compared to now? Not only did HR's and walks rise but batting averages were also higher than where they were 10 years before or where they are now.
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