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Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby J35J » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:32 pm

Skin Blues wrote:K% may not have an impact on BABIP, but it has a huge impact on batting average. And most fantasy leagues count AVG, not BABIP, so his K% is certainly a factor to consider. This probably isn't the proper thread for this discussion though.


This.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Wed Sep 12, 2012 11:00 pm

His K rate is around 20% and he has a contact rate of around 79%. He has a BABIP slightly above his career norm (.319) at .330, which explains his .292 average that is 22 pct. points above his career average. He is getting a little more lucky but he is also hitting the ball the hardest he has hit it in his entire career.


His 79% contact rate is among the lowest for all qualified shortstops and would put him in the bottom 25% quartile for all qualified position players. He's hitting the ball the hardest he's hit in his whole career? So you're saying that there's a lot more than getting hits than simply contact? The QUALITY of contact counts. Good, my point exactly.

This has nothing at all to do with why he is underrated. The reason he is underrated is that he is a lesser known player that plays for a lesser known team and he was drafted around the 16-20th rounds if not later while easily providing top 6 round value.


So you're saying that "hype" can sometimes have a lot to do with player value. There wasn't much hype behind Desmond so he went cheap? Again, my point exactly.
Yes, your ideas are not well thought out and I don't care to get into a long winded discussion over every stupid talking point you bring up.
Best regards, West


Well if my ideas are stupid, than you have a problem. They are similar to yours.
Last edited by OBPlover on Wed Sep 12, 2012 11:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Wed Sep 12, 2012 11:09 pm

You clearly have some sample size issues if the last 3 weeks of the regular season are going to make a huge impact in what you think of a player. Nobody asked for a draft position within 5 positions. Just a general range.

Here's an example of how this works. Last year I picked willingham in the 180-200 range and next year I'm upgrading that to probably just inside the top 150. I simply do not believe that he will stay healthy. Meanwhile you claimed that he went undrafted in your leagues so you passed on him until the 250+ range. Next year are you upgrading him to the top 200? top 150? top 125? top 100? top 75? top 50? top 25?



Ok let me see if I can explain this to you...really....slowwwwwwwwwwww.

To rank Willingham or anyone else for that matter I would have to sit down an analyze all other players. Who is headed for major improvement for 2013? 3 weeks is a ton of time when looking at THE ENTIRE MAJOR LEAGUES. I can guarantee you that in the next 3 weeks, some impact player will get hurt, someone will go on a monster slump and someone will go on a tear. Then there's the entire offseason to consider. Outfielders traded to better hitters' parks etc.

If you want to rank someone now, be my guest. You will be revising like crazy by Mar 2013.
Additionally supporting cast doesn't have a huge effect other than R/RBI's and there is no way that Mauer is traded. Possibly Morneau or Span but that is because there are some good prospects coming up to replace them (and the Twins really need pitching).


Supporting cast doesn't have a huge effect on RBI? So if Mauer's .400+ OBP gets replaced by some minor league call up, that doesn't have an impact?

You should really try to think things through.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Wed Sep 12, 2012 11:14 pm

J35J wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:K% may not have an impact on BABIP, but it has a huge impact on batting average. And most fantasy leagues count AVG, not BABIP, so his K% is certainly a factor to consider. This probably isn't the proper thread for this discussion though.


This.


I guarantee you that if I put you into a room and offered you seasons' tickets to your favorite team if you won my game, you wouldn't win. All you would have to do is I'd I list 10 random hitters from baseball history, you could get what their lifetime batting average would be. But I don't tell you their names, just their lifetime K/BB ratios, Heck, because I'm a nice guy, I'll even mention their lifetime K% and contact rate (if the info is available).

Let me ask you a question, do you think that high average hitters, say .300+, get that way because they get a lot of extra hits on 2 strike counts?

or do they just have much higher averages than average hitters on hitters' counts like 3-1?
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:25 am

OBPlover wrote:Let me ask you a question, do you think that high average hitters, say .300+, get that way because they get a lot of extra hits on 2 strike counts?

or do they just have much higher averages than average hitters on hitters' counts like 3-1?


they get that way because they put the ball in play a lot (don't strikeout) and hit the ball hard.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby Ender » Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:27 am

To rank Willingham or anyone else for that matter I would have to sit down an analyze all other players


I don't know about that. If you had told me Willingham was going to be healthy all year I'd put him in my top 30 hitter list, he has always had this kind of talent. He just had too many back issues to realize the talent. There is almost nothing abnormal about his numbers other than the number of PA he is going to end up with.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:03 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
OBPlover wrote:Let me ask you a question, do you think that high average hitters, say .300+, get that way because they get a lot of extra hits on 2 strike counts?

or do they just have much higher averages than average hitters on hitters' counts like 3-1?


they get that way because they put the ball in play a lot (don't strikeout) and hit the ball hard.


Yes, but hitting the ball hard or "quality of contact" is much, much more important than the "amount" of contact. That is why, except for extreme examples of K% (like an Adam Dunn) K% is pretty useless for predicting batting average.

Let's say you have 2 different hitters. Player A has a K rate of 20% amd Player B has a K rate of 15%. It is assumed that player A will have a lower batting average. What is being implied is that there is some kind of hitter "base rate", it doesn't matter who Player A and Player B are. When both players make contact, than both players have an equal chance of getting a hit - 2 different hitters should have a similar BABIP. This means whoever puts the ball in play more, is the better hitter. But this is utter nonsense. There's a big difference in hitting ability from say Miguel cabrera and Jemile Weeks, but you can look this up, they have comparative K% rates. Cabrera can do more in his at bats because he is a better hitter. He can direct the ball where he needs it to go with authority and Weeks can't. This is what is important. Who cares that they both strikeout at a similar rate.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:09 am

Ender wrote:
To rank Willingham or anyone else for that matter I would have to sit down an analyze all other players


I don't know about that. If you had told me Willingham was going to be healthy all year I'd put him in my top 30 hitter list, he has always had this kind of talent. He just had too many back issues to realize the talent. There is almost nothing abnormal about his numbers other than the number of PA he is going to end up with.


Yes, I agree. But for a buck or two, it was a worthwhile gamble he could stay healthy for 130 games, which is his 6 year average.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:22 am

OBPlover wrote:Yes, but hitting the ball hard or "quality of contact" is much, much more important than the "amount" of contact. That is why, except for extreme examples of K% (like an Adam Dunn) K% is pretty useless for predicting batting average.


You keep saying that but I don't see the data to back it up.

This on the other hand shows pretty considerable correlation.

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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby Izenhart » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:53 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
OBPlover wrote:Yes, but hitting the ball hard or "quality of contact" is much, much more important than the "amount" of contact. That is why, except for extreme examples of K% (like an Adam Dunn) K% is pretty useless for predicting batting average.


You keep saying that but I don't see the data to back it up.

This on the other hand shows pretty considerable correlation.

Image


Who is the blue dot that stands out near 30% k rate and just under .300 avg?
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