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Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:29 am

Inukchuk wrote:Come on, you've been pimping Willingham out all thread, but now you don't want to make a definitive statement? How about we say nothing changes as far as the Twins roster goes. He's currently ranked in the late 30s. Would you take him in the early 4th? That seems to be fair value considering the fact that you don't find this year to be flukish...


How can I be expected to give an exact rank on a guy with 3 weeks left of the regular season and an entire offseason to worry about? I don't even know who my number 1 is for 2013 let alone who I'd pick in the third or 4th round.

I am guessing that there is some point you wish to make and are beating around the bush with this whole ranking thing.

I can tell you that I'd spend more than a buck on him in an auction league and I wouldn't let him go undrafted like so many did in 2012. I wouldn't have any trouble with making him a starting outfielder at this point.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:33 am

West wrote:
OBPlover wrote:
West wrote:Thanks for getting back on subject...that guy was brutal. K's are meaningless...what an inane argument.


You misread everything. I never said K's are meaningless. For pitchers they are crucial. What I said was that they are menaingless for hitters which was proven in the article I quoted. K's show little correlation to OPS.

The only debate is whether K's are meaningful to predict batting average.



No, I know you meant that K's are meaningless for hitters. It's still a stupid idea.

Two words: Contact rate.

Man, I have no wish to carry this argument any further than this. Let's get back to why Ian Desmond is completely underrated.


Just curious, how can you call me stupid for suggesting that K rate was meaningless and then talk about Ian Desmond as underrated.

have you had a chance to look at Ian Desmond's K rate and K/BB rate at all?
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Sep 12, 2012 7:47 am

OBPlover wrote:I can tell you that I'd spend more than a buck on him in an auction league and I wouldn't let him go undrafted like so many did in 2012. I wouldn't have any trouble with making him a starting outfielder at this point.
I have no idea what leagues you're participating in, but you have continuously made comments like this one, saying Willingham was going undrafted. Luckily for us, we have an incredible resource here at the Cafe, the compilation Median Draft Position, which has Josh Willingham as the #203 player being selected in drafts this past Spring, with an average draft spot of 205.07. Where was he going undrafted? 8 team leagues? You've also talked about Edwin Encarnacion going undrafted (MDP: 200), and even David Ortiz (MDP: 107). Interestingly enough, drafted after all of them (MDP: 236), was Ian Desmond, and (MDP: 270) Jake Peavy, and (MDP: 287) Ryan Vogelsong, and (MDP: 318) Allen Craig.

In that bizarro world was Josh Willingham going undrafted?
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby J35J » Wed Sep 12, 2012 8:34 am

OBPlover wrote:
West wrote:
OBPlover wrote:
You misread everything. I never said K's are meaningless. For pitchers they are crucial. What I said was that they are menaingless for hitters which was proven in the article I quoted. K's show little correlation to OPS.

The only debate is whether K's are meaningful to predict batting average.



No, I know you meant that K's are meaningless for hitters. It's still a stupid idea.

Two words: Contact rate.

Man, I have no wish to carry this argument any further than this. Let's get back to why Ian Desmond is completely underrated.


Just curious, how can you call me stupid for suggesting that K rate was meaningless and then talk about Ian Desmond as underrated.

have you had a chance to look at Ian Desmond's K rate and K/BB rate at all?


Because Desmonds value doesn't lie in his average...though this year he's had a nice bump in that department....it's the 20/20 or 25/25 potential from a shortstop that makes him valuable...if he can continue to keep a BABIP above .330 then a .290+avg is icing on the cake for his value. My guess is it drops back down closer to .275 next year....but if he can maintain the 20/20 or 25/25 then he's still extremely valuable even with a .265+ avg.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby OBPlover » Wed Sep 12, 2012 4:59 pm

Because Desmonds value doesn't lie in his average...though this year he's had a nice bump in that department....it's the 20/20 or 25/25 potential from a shortstop that makes him valuable...if he can continue to keep a BABIP above .330 then a .290+avg is icing on the cake for his value. My guess is it drops back down closer to .275 next year....but if he can maintain the 20/20 or 25/25 then he's still extremely valuable even with a .265+ avg.


If you believe in the importance of K/BB ratio for hitters and apparently you do, then you are ignoring EVERYTHING that you believe in to predict that Desmond's batting average does not fall off a cliff in 2013.

His K/BB is the second worst for all qualified shortstops, behind such batting average clunkers as JJ Hardy, Jimmy Rollins and Zack Cozart. His K/BB is even among the 10 worst in baseball this year, yet he maintains a .295 batting average. How do you explain this?

It's much more likely to collapse well below .275 based on this metric.

You can relax though his K% of 20% is meaningless.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:31 pm

K% may not have an impact on BABIP, but it has a huge impact on batting average. And most fantasy leagues count AVG, not BABIP, so his K% is certainly a factor to consider. This probably isn't the proper thread for this discussion though.
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Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:07 pm

Average shmaverage. OBP is all that matters.
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby West » Wed Sep 12, 2012 8:26 pm

OBPlover wrote:
West wrote:
OBPlover wrote:
You misread everything. I never said K's are meaningless. For pitchers they are crucial. What I said was that they are menaingless for hitters which was proven in the article I quoted. K's show little correlation to OPS.

The only debate is whether K's are meaningful to predict batting average.



No, I know you meant that K's are meaningless for hitters. It's still a stupid idea.

Two words: Contact rate.

Man, I have no wish to carry this argument any further than this. Let's get back to why Ian Desmond is completely underrated.


Just curious, how can you call me stupid for suggesting that K rate was meaningless and then talk about Ian Desmond as underrated.

have you had a chance to look at Ian Desmond's K rate and K/BB rate at all?



His K rate is around 20% and he has a contact rate of around 79%. He has a BABIP slightly above his career norm (.319) at .330, which explains his .292 average that is 22 pct. points above his career average. He is getting a little more lucky but he is also hitting the ball the hardest he has hit it in his entire career.

This has nothing at all to do with why he is underrated. The reason he is underrated is that he is a lesser known player that plays for a lesser known team and he was drafted around the 16-20th rounds if not later while easily providing top 6 round value.

Yes, your ideas are not well thought out and I don't care to get into a long winded discussion over every stupid talking point you bring up.

Best regards, West
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby kab21 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:01 pm

OBPlover wrote:How can I be expected to give an exact rank on a guy with 3 weeks left of the regular season and an entire offseason to worry about? I don't even know who my number 1 is for 2013 let alone who I'd pick in the third or 4th round.

I am guessing that there is some point you wish to make and are beating around the bush with this whole ranking thing.

I can tell you that I'd spend more than a buck on him in an auction league and I wouldn't let him go undrafted like so many did in 2012. I wouldn't have any trouble with making him a starting outfielder at this point.


You clearly have some sample size issues if the last 3 weeks of the regular season are going to make a huge impact in what you think of a player. Nobody asked for a draft position within 5 positions. Just a general range.

Here's an example of how this works. Last year I picked willingham in the 180-200 range and next year I'm upgrading that to probably just inside the top 150. I simply do not believe that he will stay healthy. Meanwhile you claimed that he went undrafted in your leagues so you passed on him until the 250+ range. Next year are you upgrading him to the top 200? top 150? top 125? top 100? top 75? top 50? top 25?

Additionally supporting cast doesn't have a huge effect other than R/RBI's and there is no way that Mauer is traded. Possibly Morneau or Span but that is because there are some good prospects coming up to replace them (and the Twins really need pitching).
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Re: Most Underrated Fantasy Player 2012

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:05 pm

OBPlover wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:Come on, you've been pimping Willingham out all thread, but now you don't want to make a definitive statement? How about we say nothing changes as far as the Twins roster goes. He's currently ranked in the late 30s. Would you take him in the early 4th? That seems to be fair value considering the fact that you don't find this year to be flukish...


How can I be expected to give an exact rank on a guy with 3 weeks left of the regular season and an entire offseason to worry about? I don't even know who my number 1 is for 2013 let alone who I'd pick in the third or 4th round.

I am guessing that there is some point you wish to make and are beating around the bush with this whole ranking thing.

I can tell you that I'd spend more than a buck on him in an auction league and I wouldn't let him go undrafted like so many did in 2012. I wouldn't have any trouble with making him a starting outfielder at this point.


Beating around the bush? I think I'm being pretty clear in what I'm asking you, yet you seem to not want to give a definitive answer. I'll lay it out perfectly clearly: if Willingham continues at his current pace for the remaining 2.5 weeks of the season, and Minny makes no offseason moves affecting his value, would you draft Willingham around his current rank as a 4th rounder?
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