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NL MVP.

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Re: NL MVP.

Postby dannahann » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:00 am

benb18a wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
Ender wrote:Yeah I expect both leagues to go to the wrong player. Cabrera in the AL and Posey in the NL. Neither is a horrible choice which happens now and again, just not the best one.


How exactly is Posey the wrong player?



Because he was not the best player in his league this season?


Per the voting criteria it's 'the player most valuable to his team', not the 'best player' or 'most outstanding player in a league'.
from BBWA "“The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931: (1) actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense; (2) number of games played; (3) general character, disposition, loyalty and effort; (4) former winners are eligible; and (5) members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.”
I think it has to be Posey (Molina 2nd) if most voters follow this. I also find it funny how some say in the AL thread that playing fewer games favors Trout somehow. Rule (2) is in direct contrast to that premise.
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Re: NL MVP.

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:00 am

benb18a wrote:I never said that it is ridiculous for one to consider him the MVP of his league this season, just that, I consider him not to be the MVP of his league this season.

It is interesting that you fall back on "the stats." Because what I see, is Braun leading the league in multiple categories that Posey is not in the top ten in, namely, insignificant statistical categories such as home runs, and runs scored. Funny how a player who leads the league in homers, runs, and OPS, and is second in RBI, 9th in steals isn't considered a "snub" when juxtaposed with a Giants player.


Yes, let's compare an average defending left-fielder to an above average catcher by comparing "insignificant" offensive numbers straight across the board. What a brilliant way to determine value. Let's also not take any park factors into account because hitting in Miller Park is the same as hitting in AT&T.

WAR: Posey
Offensive WAR: Posey
OPS+: Posey
Defense: Posey
Position: Posey

Yes those don't mean everything, but by most worthwhile metrics, Braun was not much better than Posey offensively (if you take position into account then Posey was clearly better), and Posey played a much tougher position much better defensively. Not the mention the physical and mental toll that catching has over the course of the season. No rational person would see this as a snub because by the best metrics we have today Posey was at least an equal to Braun if not better. This isn't fantasy MVP bro.
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Re: NL MVP.

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:48 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:WAR: Posey
Offensive WAR: Posey
OPS+: Posey
Defense: Posey
Position: Posey


If you use fangraphs WAR Posey and Braun are tied with Braun having a higher offensive score.
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Re: NL MVP.

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:20 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:WAR: Posey
Offensive WAR: Posey
OPS+: Posey
Defense: Posey
Position: Posey


If you use fangraphs WAR Posey and Braun are tied with Braun having a higher offensive score.


So he's tied by fangraphs, ahead by baseball-reference. How can anyone say that Braun was a snub unless they want to flat out ignore the difference in positions?
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NL MVP.

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:39 am

Bryce Harper.
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Re: NL MVP.

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:42 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:WAR: Posey
Offensive WAR: Posey
OPS+: Posey
Defense: Posey
Position: Posey


If you use fangraphs WAR Posey and Braun are tied with Braun having a higher offensive score.


So he's tied by fangraphs, ahead by baseball-reference. How can anyone say that Braun was a snub unless they want to flat out ignore the difference in positions?


That's pretty much the only way. If you only look at the offensive numbers and count anything else like position or ballpark. I'd personally vote for Braun but I have no problem with Posey winning. I'm willing to bet Braun doesn't finish in the top 3 and I think that is a shame. Heck, if enough writers leave him off the ballot all together he might not finish top 5.
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Re: NL MVP.

Postby benb18a » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:44 pm

Okay, let's take a look at the facts. Braun's WAR? 7.0 His offensive WAR? 6.0 What is 7-6? 1.0
Posey's WAR? 7.2 His offensive WAR? 7.2 What is 7.2-7.2? 0

What was that about Braun being an average outfielder, and Posey being a better than average catcher?

"actual value (not positional relativity) of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense" And I'm done here. The player who deserves to win the MVP will not, and a player who does not, will. /thread
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Re: NL MVP.

Postby J35J » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:51 pm

benb18a wrote:Okay, let's take a look at the facts. Braun's WAR? 7.0 His offensive WAR? 6.0 What is 7-6? 1.0
Posey's WAR? 7.2 His offensive WAR? 7.2 What is 7.2-7.2? 0

What was that about Braun being an average outfielder, and Posey being a better than average catcher?

"actual value (not positional relativity) of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense" And I'm done here. The player who deserves to win the MVP will not, and a player who does not, will. /thread

I could be wrong but I didn't think they calculated defensive WAR for catchers...I might have misremembered though...
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Re: NL MVP.

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:46 pm

They calculate it, but it's pretty much a useless number from what I understand. There's so much that needs to go into it that just isn't available yet. And Braun's offensive WAR is quite a bit higher (almost a full win) than Posey's, and his baserunning is also better than Posey by abouthalf of a win. So roughly 1.5 WAR advantage for Braun excluding fielding, where obviously the edge would go to Posey, but hard to say by how much. Suffice it to say it's close enough that simply looking at WAR won't give a definitive answer. It's not like either of them are ahead by 3+ WAR or anything.
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Re: NL MVP.

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:48 pm

benb18a wrote:Okay, let's take a look at the facts. Braun's WAR? 7.0 His offensive WAR? 6.0 What is 7-6? 1.0
Posey's WAR? 7.2 His offensive WAR? 7.2 What is 7.2-7.2? 0

What was that about Braun being an average outfielder, and Posey being a better than average catcher?

"actual value (not positional relativity) of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense" And I'm done here. The player who deserves to win the MVP will not, and a player who does not, will. /thread


Actual value is highly dependent on position, and just ignoring it would be an incredibly terrible way at determining value. A catcher who puts up similar offensive numbers to a left fielder holds considerably more value. That is a fact, not an opinion.

Catcher defense is incredibly hard to valuate and both UZR and TZ do a pretty poor job of accurately determining it. This is a well known fact. By any metric Posey is an above average catcher and anyone who watched games the Giants plan (whether your a fan or not) will pretty clearly be able to tell that Posey is at the very least a solid fielder behind the plate. He has very good ball-blocking skills, good pitch-framing skills, and a very strong and accurate arm.

Ryan Braun, on the other hand, has been a below average fielder his entire career. His UZR this year show him as slightly above average, but one year UZR doesn't do a great job of accurately determining fielding skills and it's likely he's still below average. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and called him average.

Fielding is still something that is not easy to accurately valuate, especially for catchers. Based on the information we have and pretty much any scouting report you read, it seems pretty obvious that Posey is the superior defender at a much more difficult position. He also put up similar numbers to Braun at a position where it is much more valuable and whether you want to believe that it matters or not is irrelevant, because it clearly does.

You are welcome to have the opinion that Braun should win it, but in no way is it a snub and in no way is he clearly better than Posey unless you're just going to cherry pick stats and ignore where a lot of the value actually comes from. If anything the stats seem to suggest Posey had the more valuable season.
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