AL MVP. Mike Trout show? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:17 pm

RyeWhiskey wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Should all post season awards be handed out based on statistical formulae? Should we remove voting and discretion from the ROY, Cy, MVP, gold glove etc awards and make it strictly statistically based?

It's a serious question. It can be done. In the same way that we can take umpires out of the game and allow it to be called by technology we can allow the statistics to determine award winners and it's pretty much the same argument.

Is discretion and voting based upon actually watching these guys play now just a quaint anachronism of the game?


Great post.

This is, pretty much, what we're talking about here. And the question ultimately comes down to a linguistic discussion over what the world valuable means in the context of major league baseball.

Generally speaking, the goal of the game is to win the world series. So the value of each player is translated in context of this goal. A player may have been vastly more valuable than every other player in getting close to the playoffs (Trout), but it really doesn't matter at this point because the goal isn't to just kinda get close to the playoffs.
And this is because, unlike fantasy baseball fans, the goal of major league players is not to accumulate an enormous bonerload of stats regardless of other circumstances - it's to win the world series. So if you don't help your team get to the playoffs, you really aren't the most valuable player in the context of major league baseball.

In short:
In the context of fantasy baseball, MVP = best statistical season (because fantasy baseball is a statistical game).
In the context of major league baseball, MVP = player who helped his team the most towards the world series (because major league baseball is a real game).

This is why Ryan Braun won't win in the NL. His season was indeed bonerriffic. But unfortunately the Brewers didn't make the playoffs, so by most major league baseball standards his season is relatively worthless as it did not end up in a playoff opportunity. Same for McCutch although you could make a very good argument that he was single-handedly responsible for the resurgence of the Pirates this year. But still, resurgence is great but it's even better when it ends in getting to the playoffs.

And this is why MCab should win the AL MVP. His season actually matters now. Trout's doesn't.


What you're doing is awarding the MVP to MCab, not for what he did, but for what his teammates did. Baseball is not a 1-player sport. Detroit is not in the playoffs because of MCab, they are in the playoffs because of their entire roster. The Angels aren't NOT in the playoffs because of Trout, they aren't in the playoffs because their roster didn't win enough games.

The MVP isn't a team award, it's an individual award. Mike Trout had a better season and contributed to more WINS than MCab did. Why should Trout be penalized because his teammates didn't play as well as MCab's did? Why should MCab be rewarded for having better teammates?

And by the way, as I write this I remember that the Angels won more games than the Tigers did anyway. It was technicality that the Tigers made the playoffs and Angels didn't. So in this case, you're not even rewarding MCab for having a better team, you're rewarding him for the ineptness of the other teams in the AL Central and punishing Trout for the better teams of the AL West.

It makes no sense. The best player is also the most valuable player. Bar none.
25
BronXBombers51
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 11944
(Past Year: 116)
Joined: 8 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby jfg » Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:55 pm

I can get behind giving it to Cabrera for the Triple Crown, still not the right decision, but it's somewhat rational. Giving it to him because the Tigers made the playoffs is just flat out stupid. I can't believe that this even crosses the minds of voters. Put Trout on the Tigers and Cabrera on the Angels, and more likely than not the Tigers still make the playoffs, the Angels still miss the playoffs. Put Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, whomever you want on a team full of replacement players and they don't make the playoffs. But, steroid debates aside, are you going to argue that those players weren't the most valuable players ever to play the game? If they played an entire career with a team full of replacements aren't they still the greatest ever? Where a team finishes for judging MVP candidates is just the worst argument ever, and anybody who votes this way doesn't deserve to have a vote.

Oh, and it's even more ridiculous of an argument this year when the Angels actually had a better record than the Tigers.
Image
jfg
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicGolden Eagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 6077
(Past Year: 169)
Joined: 4 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:45 pm

Discussions like this make me hate stats like Liam Neeson hates wolves. WAR is getting a ridiculous amount of play. What use were the wins contributed by Trout or McCutcheon? At least watch them play and then vote for Trout because Miggy's fat. That's an argument I can digest.
Image
Mookie4ever
Head Moderator
Head Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterHockey ModBasketball ModFootball ModMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 19486
(Past Year: 301)
Joined: 17 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Hakuna, Montana

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby jorgesca » Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:40 pm

WAR is too hypothetical to be the end all stat, it has 3 different sites who calculate it, with different defensive metrics and we don't even know how reliable those metrics are. Besides these flaws, someone arbitrarily assigned a value to defense, baserunning and offense. Who's to say offense should be rewarded more? Or defense? It's a good work in progress but nothing close to perfect.
jorgesca
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 102
(Past Year: 35)
Joined: 11 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby RyeWhiskey » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:17 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
What you're doing is awarding the MVP to MCab, not for what he did, but for what his teammates did. Baseball is not a 1-player sport. Detroit is not in the playoffs because of MCab, they are in the playoffs because of their entire roster. The Angels aren't NOT in the playoffs because of Trout, they aren't in the playoffs because their roster didn't win enough games.


No. I'm saying MCab should have the MVP for two reasons:
1. He just achieved one of the most prestigious and difficult milestones in all of baseball, the triple crown.
2. He helped his team make the playoffs, which is the goal of the regular season.

BronXBombers51 wrote:The MVP isn't a team award, it's an individual award. Mike Trout had a better season and contributed to more WINS than MCab did. Why should Trout be penalized because his teammates didn't play as well as MCab's did? Why should MCab be rewarded for having better teammates?


Trout contributed to more wins. Wow. Now he's watching the playoffs from a couch. So his wins mean all of.... nothing.

BronXBombers51 wrote:And by the way, as I write this I remember that the Angels won more games than the Tigers did anyway. It was technicality that the Tigers made the playoffs and Angels didn't. So in this case, you're not even rewarding MCab for having a better team, you're rewarding him for the ineptness of the other teams in the AL Central and punishing Trout for the better teams of the AL West.


Oh darn. So life isn't all neat and clean like statistics? Get over it.

BronXBombers51 wrote:It makes no sense. The best player is also the most valuable player. Bar none.


Clearly false. Look at the history of MVP awards, often times the best player is not selected.

What doesn't make sense is that you don't seem to understand that fantasy baseball is different from regular baseball.
In fantasy baseball the MVP is the best player, period. That's because we only deal with statistics and statistics are what lead us to the playoffs and the championship. So the best player is obviously the most valuable player because... the best player puts up the best numbers.
In regular baseball there's actually a game being played with actual people who are not made entirely out of mathematical statistics. Hence the concept of value cannot be reduced to numbers as numbers often don't correlate with victory. Instead, value is derived from the purpose of the game and how a player effects a team in relationship to the achievement of this purpose.
Since the purpose of the regular season is to get into the postseason, the most valuable player is one who most helped his team do so.
Image
RyeWhiskey
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1552
Joined: 11 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby dapperslacks » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:40 pm

To all of you who are saying that the only argument Trout supporters have is WAR, let's go through the arguments that people are making for Cabrera to be the MVP. And I'll do it on hard-mode by not even mentioning WAR one time.


Let's go through the arguments that people are making for Cabrera to be the MVP. And I'll do it on hard-mode by not even mentioning WAR one time.

"He won the Triple Crown! That hasn't happened in so long! He must be better than Trout!"

Well, that's nice. I understand it's rarity and difficulty, but the Triple Crown is just an arbitrary, seemingly random, collection of 3 stats. One of which tells you nothing about individual effectiveness and is completely opportunity-based (RBI) and one of which is very misleading and again tells you very little about individual effectiveness (.AVG). If you want to pull the Triple Crown card, though, Trout had a collection of 3 random stats that were even rarer than Cabrera's (30 HR, 45 SB, 125 R, which has never been done in the history of the MLB). Winning the Triple Crown does not automatically equate someone to be being the best offensive player that year.

"Well he leads the league in OPS! That includes all the aspects of hitting. His OPS is over 1!"

While an OPS of 1+ is very impressive, OPS is kind of a flawed stat in the sense that it treats OBP and SLG as the same importance, when in reality each point of OBP is worth more in terms of creating runs than each point of SLG.

A better stat to look at is wOBA (weighted on-base average), which is similar to OPS but weighs every individual offensive outcome (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS, BB, HBP) based on their true run value. SLG assumes that a double is worth twice as much as a single, which is actually false as a single is worth about .44 runs to a double's .77. 2 singles are better than 1 double. This year Trout posted a league-high .421 wOBA to Cabrera's .417.

"But he had so many RBI! He had 50 more than Trout! He's such a better run producer!"

While the RBI totals would tell you Cabrera is better at driving in runners, it's a lot closer than the numbers suggest. See, RBI is the most flawed and useless stat that constantly gets thrown around when comparing player performance. What resulted in his misleading RBI total was a league-high 444 runners on-base during his plate appearances. In terms of actual effectiveness of knocking runners in, they were close to equal. Cabrera this year drove in 31% of his runners on base to Trout's 28%, a lot closer than the 50 RBI margin would have you think. In addition, Miguel batting 3rd meant most of the time his baserunners were Austin Jackson and Quintin Berry, the two fastest players in Detroit's lineup, making them easier to drive in. Most of Trout's baserunners were slower bottom of the order hitters like Chris Ianetta and Vernon Wells.

But if you want to play the RBI (opportunity) game, you must also consider the other side to having the most opportunities with men on base, with the fact that Cabrera grounded into more double plays (28) than any other player in baseball this year.

So you can either ignore the gross difference in opportunities and give Cabrera credit for driving in many more runs while also penalizing him for creating many more outs, or adjust for opportunity and realize that Cabrera hasn’t actually been that much better than Trout at bringing his teammates home once they get on base.

"OK, well maybe his offensive numbers aren't any better, but Miggy is so clutch! He gets the big hits when it really matters and carried his team down the stretch!"

Although "clutchness" is hard to quantify, WPA (win-probability added) does a pretty good job of it. It uses win probability, which takes into account baserunners, outs, and what inning it is -- all the things people used to describe "clutch" -- and measures the win probability before and after each player's at-bat, crediting them with the difference in win probability that resulted from their at-bat. It essentially measure's how much each individual player contributed to their team's win (or loss). For example, the highest single-game postseason WPA of all-time was David Freese in Game 6 of last year's World Series. I don't think anyone would deny that he was as clutch as they came in that game.

So let's look at Trout and Cabrera's season WPA this year:

Trout - 5.67 (1st in AL)
Cabrera - 4.55 (4th in AL, behind teammate Prince Fielder and Edwin Encarnacion)

So Trout actually contributed (offensively) to more wins, even taking into account context-based (clutch) situations for his team than Miggy this year.

WPA by month
Trout
-0.08 - April
0.89 - May
1.63 - June
1.42 - July
1.45 - August

0.36 - Sept/Oct

Cabrera
0.86 - April
0.83 - May
-0.28 - June
0.99 - July
1.05 - August
1.11 - Sept/Oct

So yes, while Cabrera was more clutch and effective over the last month, does it really make up for the previous 4 months that Trout consistently beat Cabrera? After all, a win in June is worth just as much as a win in September at the end of the year. I don't buy that Cabrera playing better during a one-month window of time that's deemed "more important" (when in reality every win is worth the same) outweighs the previous four months that Trout had.

So now we've come to the conclusion that they were virtually equal in runs created for their team, with the slight edge to Trout, they were virtually equal in driving in baserunners, with the slight edge to Cabrera, and Trout was consistently more clutch throughout the course of the season, with the edge going to Cabrera in the final month. I think it's safe to say they were virtually equal offensive contributors for their teams, you really can't give an edge to either one.

But wait, there's more! (to the game of baseball than just offense). You have to play defense too. And while we couldn't really decide upon who has the advantage offensively, I don't think anyone would really debate that Trout has a MASSIVE advantage over Cabrera defensively, while playing the hardest position in the game. (Although I'm not a huge fan of defensive stats in baseball - and you don't really need them in this situation for it to be clear who the advantage goes to - the defensive numbers are there to support Trout pretty soundly as well).

One more thing to consider is Trout's obvious, and again MASSIVE, speed advantage over Cabrera. Yes, we already included this earlier as SB and CS are included in wOBA, but let's even take steals out of the picture. Trout added so much more value to his team by all the times he used his speed to go from 1st to 3rd, scoring from 2nd on singles and taking extra bases by just being faster and better base runner. This is something that Cabrera simply cannot offer to his team, and frankly, he hurts his team (takes away value) by his deficiency in this facet of the game.

So let's break it down:

Offense: No clear advantage
Speed: Huge advantage Trout
Defense: Huge advantage Trout

So how can Trout not be the Most Valuable Player this season?

"Well Cabrera's team is in the playoffs! And Trout's isn't! Ha! See? Cabrera is MVP!"

Well, the Angels winning percentage when Trout was in the lineup was the best in the MLB, plus they had a better record overall than the Tigers. So Cabrera should win the MVP because he plays in a weaker division than Trout and his teammates are better? What else did Trout have to do to make up for his team's shortcomings and his stronger division? Should he have played the other 7 positions and pitched like Justin Verlander?

He added more value to his team than Cabrera, plain and simple. Player value to me does not change based on what team you are on. That implies that your team has something to do with an individual award, and that's not the case. It's not the "Most Valuable Player plus other valuable players around you" award, it's just "Most Valuable Player". And Trout was the Most Valuable Player to his team in the entire MLB this year

Cabrera had an incredible season, no doubt, and I'm glad he won the Triple Crown (for both my fantasy team and my wallet, not to mention the sport of baseball), but he was not the Most Valuable Player to his team this year.
dapperslacks
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 6
Joined: 5 Oct 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby RyeWhiskey » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:47 pm

:-°

My main argument is that Trout's amazing season did not lead his team to the playoffs and getting to the playoffs is the goal of the regular season. Hence, in real baseball terms, his season was not as valuable as someone who's team did make the playoffs.

I'm sorry but it's true. Not everything comes down to stats.
Image
RyeWhiskey
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1552
Joined: 11 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:56 pm

Miggy wins in the isFAT stat.

This discussion sucks. Too many people trying to prove they can pull out more stupid esoteric stats than anyone else. You're already posting on a fantasy baseball message board, you don't need to prove that you don't have a girlfriend.
Image
Mookie4ever
Head Moderator
Head Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterHockey ModBasketball ModFootball ModMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 19486
(Past Year: 301)
Joined: 17 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Hakuna, Montana

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby dapperslacks » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:57 pm

RyeWhiskey wrote::-°

My main argument is that Trout's amazing season did not lead his team to the playoffs and getting to the playoffs is the goal of the regular season. Hence, in real baseball terms, his season was not as valuable as someone who's team did make the playoffs.

I'm sorry but it's true. Not everything comes down to stats.


What else did Trout have to do? How much more valuable than Cabrera did he need to be to make up for his teammates and his division (things completely out of his control)? If he would have hit 90 homers and stole 100 bases but his team didn't make the playoffs would you still penalize him for the players around him and his division?

BTW,

MVP's whose team's didn't make the playoffs

1983- Dale Murphy (Braves finished 2nd)
1985- Don Mattingly (Yankees finished 2nd)
1987- Andre Dawson (Cubs finished 6th)
1987- George Bell (Blue Jays finished 2nd)
1989- Robin Yount (Brewers finished 4th)
1991- Cal Ripken Jr (Orioles finished 6th)
1993- Barry Bonds (finished 2nd)
1997- Larry Walker (Rockies finished 5th)
2001- Barry Bonds (Giants finished 2nd)
2004- Barry Bonds (Giants finished 2nd)
2006- Ryan Howard (Phillies finished 2nd)
2008- Albert Pujols (Cardinals finished 4th)
dapperslacks
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 6
Joined: 5 Oct 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby dapperslacks » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:58 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:You're already posting on a fantasy baseball message board, you don't need to prove that you don't have a girlfriend.

LOL, did this really just come from the "head moderator" with, if I'm reading it correctly, 18,000+ posts?
dapperslacks
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 6
Joined: 5 Oct 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Frenchiegangsta9, myrati3, slink and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Apr. 23
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Arizona at Chi Cubs
(12:10 pm)
San Francisco at Colorado
(2:20 pm)
Texas at Oakland
(3:10 pm)
Houston at Seattle
(3:35 pm)
Kansas City at Cleveland
(3:40 pm)
LA Angels at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Toronto at Toronto
(7:05 pm)
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
Baltimore at Baltimore
(7:07 pm)
Chi White Sox at Detroit
(7:08 pm)
NY Yankees at Boston
(7:10 pm)
St. Louis at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Minnesota at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
San Diego at Milwaukee
(8:10 pm)
Philadelphia at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact