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AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:01 pm

jfg wrote:Also, does anybody else find it funny that SABR heads are all about Trout and his 49 stolen bases? :-D Things done changed.


Stolen bases have always had value, just the value is higher now that offense is down across baseball. And it's not just the stolen bases, it's the success rate. He steals at a success rate that is much higher than the break even point (which I believe is around 70% in this offensive environment). That number of steals at that high of a success rate has always been valuable.

Also most SABR heads aren't only looking at steals but baserunning in general with extra bases taken into account as well. All of that together adds significant value.
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:57 pm

jfg wrote:Even though I still agree that Trout is the right choice, I want to weigh in the defense debate. How many runs did Cabrera cost the Tigers with below average defense and how many runs did Trout save? We all agreed in an earlier thread this season that WAR is an inexact science because it doesn't seem to really have a good handle on defense (http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=450308). We can definitely see that Trout is a great defensive player and that Cabrera is below average. But what's the quantifiable difference?

It's definitely inexact. Their defense works out to ~20 runs saved for Trout over Miggy. Which equals about 2 wins, or $9M of value. So while it's inexact, it's not really even close. And it's pretty easy to use the eye test on the two of them for those that prefer that approach. Trout has crazy range and Miggy has about a 10" radius around his body that defines his fielding zone.
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby jackie hayes » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:04 pm

jfg wrote:Also, does anybody else find it funny that SABR heads are all about Trout and his 49 stolen bases? :-D Things done changed.


I still don't understand how this debate has come to be about sabermetrics. It's not like Trout's season was only impressive by the light of obscure stats, nor is the criticism of Cabrera's defense or baserunning limited to stat-happy fans.
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:48 pm

I actually stumbled upon somebody briefly making an (almost) rational argument for Cabrera as MVP. Kind of twisting itself to maybe sorta fit within the actual criteria for the award, which is something the Cabrera supporters have been ignoring. It was only one small thought among a steaming pile of trash, but at least it was interesting:



He conveniently ignores the 25 WAR accumulated by the Tigers' pitchers compared to 10 WAR by the Angels, giving Trout 22% of his team's total vs 16% for Miggy. But it's a semblance of a rational argument. He tried, at least. He even acknowledged that "no player at any age has scored 125 runs with 40 stolen bases and 30 homers" but since nobody had ever done it he couldn't build a narrative around names like Gehrig and Ruth, so it was brushed aside.
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:59 am

Should all post season awards be handed out based on statistical formulae? Should we remove voting and discretion from the ROY, Cy, MVP, gold glove etc awards and make it strictly statistically based?

It's a serious question. It can be done. In the same way that we can take umpires out of the game and allow it to be called by technology we can allow the statistics to determine award winners and it's pretty much the same argument.

Is discretion and voting based upon actually watching these guys play now just a quaint anachronism of the game?
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:06 am

Mookie4ever wrote:It's a serious question. It can be done. In the same way that we can take umpires out of the game and allow it to be called by technology we can allow the statistics to determine award winners and it's pretty much the same argument.


Disagree. Removing umps from the game would change the game itself whereas using a statistical formula to determine certain awards would have no effect on the game at all. Awards are nice and all.. but they are of little worth in the grand scheme of things.

I wouldn't mind seeing a set of stricter guidelines when it comes to voting for awards or the HoF. For instance, some people who vote for the MVP will heavily consider team success (playoff appearance) whereas some others won't consider that at all. I don't think that should occur; all of the voters should be on a similar page.
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Bwanna » Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:15 am

We wouldn't have anything to discuss if voting followed such strict guidelines that there was little room for subjectivity and/or opinion.

Subjectivity, varied perspective, entertainment value, history are all a major factor in these awards and the game would be far less interesting for fans if everything were reduced to very precise score.
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:32 am

Bwanna wrote:We wouldn't have anything to discuss if voting followed such strict guidelines that there was little room for subjectivity and/or opinion.


So you think it is okay for voters to leave Mike Trout off of their MVP ballot because the Angels didn't make the playoffs? What about Yankee fans leaving Pedro Martinez off of their Cy Young ballots because he was a Red Sox player? Would it be alright to completely ignore Miggy from the ballot due to his previous DUI?

I'm not saying we shouldn't leave room for subjectivity. I do think that having a good set of guidelines would make things more fair.

Pedro lost a Cy Young because two Yankee writers didn't include him on their ballots. Trout will most likely lose some votes because the Angels didn't make the playoffs, despite having a better record than the Tigers. I don't think scenarios like this should occur and something should be done to prevent similar outcomes.
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby Bwanna » Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:49 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:
Bwanna wrote:We wouldn't have anything to discuss if voting followed such strict guidelines that there was little room for subjectivity and/or opinion.


So you think it is okay for voters to leave Mike Trout off of their MVP ballot because the Angels didn't make the playoffs? What about Yankee fans leaving Pedro Martinez off of their Cy Young ballots because he was a Red Sox player? Would it be alright to completely ignore Miggy from the ballot due to his previous DUI?


No, but a minority will [think any of the above are OK] because the V in MVP is not specific. To some, value is all tied up whether their team is playoff bound, to some value is strongly related to personal behavior, etc. Fortunately for the latter, those are in the very small minority.

You'll never have a perfect system when people are involved in making the decision as opposed to a very complex equation - there are flaws in both of those extremes which no amount of tweaking will even eventually produce a perfect system.

If there's a need for accurate awards, then it should be reduced to a set of awards for each stat instead of a 'Most Valuable Player' which is a word group that has many, many different interpretations - and some arguably dishonest as you've pointed out.

Have many single stat awards would eliminate most of the debate, but, it would be boring.

Urban Cohorts wrote:
Bwanna wrote:We wouldn't have anything to discuss if voting followed such strict guidelines that there was little room for subjectivity and/or opinion.


So you think it is okay for voters to leave Mike Trout off of their MVP ballot because the Angels didn't make the playoffs? What about Yankee fans leaving Pedro Martinez off of their Cy Young ballots because he was a Red Sox player? Would it be alright to completely ignore Miggy from the ballot due to his previous DUI?


No, but a minority will [think any of the above are OK] because the V in MVP is not specific. To some, value is all tied up whether their team is playoff bound, to some value is strongly related to personal behavior, etc. Fortunately for the latter, those are in the very small minority.

You'll never have a perfect system when people are involved in making the decision as opposed to a very complex equation - there are flaws in both of those extremes which no amount of tweaking will even eventually produce a perfect system.

If there's a need for accurate awards, then it should be reduced to a set of awards for each stat instead of a 'Most Valuable Player' which is a word group that has many, many different interpretations - and some arguably dishonest as you've pointed out.

Have many single stat awards would eliminate most of the debate, but, it would be boring.

EDIT: Strike that last sentence - there would still be plenty of debate about which stats have any real value (e.g., ERA, RBI, etc.)
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Re: AL MVP. Mike Trout show?

Postby RyeWhiskey » Fri Oct 05, 2012 1:56 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:Should all post season awards be handed out based on statistical formulae? Should we remove voting and discretion from the ROY, Cy, MVP, gold glove etc awards and make it strictly statistically based?

It's a serious question. It can be done. In the same way that we can take umpires out of the game and allow it to be called by technology we can allow the statistics to determine award winners and it's pretty much the same argument.

Is discretion and voting based upon actually watching these guys play now just a quaint anachronism of the game?


Great post.

This is, pretty much, what we're talking about here. And the question ultimately comes down to a linguistic discussion over what the world valuable means in the context of major league baseball.

Generally speaking, the goal of the game is to win the world series. So the value of each player is translated in context of this goal. A player may have been vastly more valuable than every other player in getting close to the playoffs (Trout), but it really doesn't matter at this point because the goal isn't to just kinda get close to the playoffs.
And this is because, unlike fantasy baseball fans, the goal of major league players is not to accumulate an enormous bonerload of stats regardless of other circumstances - it's to win the world series. So if you don't help your team get to the playoffs, you really aren't the most valuable player in the context of major league baseball.

In short:
In the context of fantasy baseball, MVP = best statistical season (because fantasy baseball is a statistical game).
In the context of major league baseball, MVP = player who helped his team the most towards the world series (because major league baseball is a real game).

This is why Ryan Braun won't win in the NL. His season was indeed bonerriffic. But unfortunately the Brewers didn't make the playoffs, so by most major league baseball standards his season is relatively worthless as it did not end up in a playoff opportunity. Same for McCutch although you could make a very good argument that he was single-handedly responsible for the resurgence of the Pirates this year. But still, resurgence is great but it's even better when it ends in getting to the playoffs.

And this is why MCab should win the AL MVP. His season actually matters now. Trout's doesn't.
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