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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 10:57 am

Both of them are having location problems. Gallardo is missing with his offspeed stuff out of the zone so people are sitting fastball. Cain is missing with his offspeed stuff up in the zone and people are putting the balls over the fence. People really should avoid looking at velocity numbers in April, they are meaningless. It is cold, pitchers velocity is generally down in the cold. Every single pitcher on the Brewers has an average velocity lower than last year except Lohse and almost all of them are down at least 1 MPH. I just looked at every single one of their fangraphs pages.

Seriously though early season velocity is meaningless unless there is some huge drop in it, like 50% of the pitchers in baseball are down in velocity from last year.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Izenhart » Wed May 01, 2013 12:20 pm

Ender wrote:If those numbers end up being accurate then Gallardo would have been much more valuable the rest of the season~. So if you projected Gallardo to have the worst season of his career I can understand your point. Most people probably aren't comfortable projecting someone to have their worst season ever at age 27. Lowest K of any full time season, lowest W total of any season. ERA above his career average etc.


This is true, however based on how April has played out and what kab just said about Gallardo's declining periphials, I expect his numbers to be worse now. I think the signs have been there for 2 seasons now that he is in a soft decline, and with pitching it's always hard to tell when that line is crossed when they go from good to getting hammered. The bottom line is Harvey has better stuff and a higher ceiling, and he has been better out of the gate. I think the chances he outpitches Gallardo are better than Gallardo outpitching him.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 12:37 pm

I think the signs have been there for 2 seasons now that he is in a soft decline


Two years ago was his best year from a peripheral standpoint. Last year was one bad month and then he posted stats just like 2011. I mean you can be worried about his peripherals this year and that makes complete sense to me but there is no way he was in soft decline for the past 2 seasons. 2011 was everything you like about a young pitcher, pretty much improved in every single area. More groundballs, more popups, fewer walks, more swinging strikes, less contact, more swings on out of zone pitches etc.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Izenhart » Wed May 01, 2013 12:51 pm

2011 was his best year from a fantasy standpoint, but from 2010 to 2011 he K rate per batter dropped slightly, he gave up 12 home runs in 2010, then 26 in 2011, yet his ERA dropped. Last year his walk total rose to over 80 and his K/BB dropped from 3.5 to 2.5. His velocity has fallen each year since 2010.

The funny thing about this year (I know its a very small sample size but) his BB/9 has improved, but his K/9 has taken a nosedive, so a much higher % of batters are putting his pitches into play, yet only 2 home runs allowed (A pace of 11-12) so that 5.9% HR/FB will rise. His BABIP isn't even that bad this year (.328 compared to a .297 career) but he's not fooling anyone right now and looks as hittable as ever. Until he shows some sign of being able to put the baseball past hitters his ERA will easily end up over 4 this year.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Thu May 02, 2013 10:11 am

2011 was his best year from a fantasy standpoint, but from 2010 to 2011 he K rate per batter dropped slightly, he gave up 12 home runs in 2010, then 26 in 2011, yet his ERA dropped. Last year his walk total rose to over 80 and his K/BB dropped from 3.5 to 2.5. His velocity has fallen each year since 2010.


Ok well we just look at pitchers completely differentlyt hen. His K rate drop was almost not noticeable in 2011, I'm guessing you are looking at K/9 which isn't very useful, his K/9 got much worse because he put fewer runners on. HR/FB% is the least reliable of all pitcher stats, his GB% improved so he got better. 2011 he was a better pitcher in every way than he was 2008-2010. His velocity was at its highest in 2011 so part of this isn't even true and in 2012 it was down in April and right back to normal the rest of the season. His average his last game was over 91 as well. 2012 was a mirror image of 2011 outside of 2 bad starts in early April both against the Cardinals, that is the only real difference between the two years.

The 2013 samples are worthless so far so can't speak to trying to make much out of those. In 2011 his K/9 was all of 5.7 in April too and that was his best season, in 2008 it was 5.7 in April and 6.0 in May. He just doesn't like pitching in the cold.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby garf112 » Tue May 07, 2013 9:21 pm

So, what do we think now???
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 07, 2013 9:23 pm

garf112 wrote:So, what do we think now???

I think the Mets have 3 outs to score a Run before I lose my mind... :-C
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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby JMR162; » Tue May 07, 2013 9:41 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
garf112 wrote:So, what do we think now???

I think the Mets have 3 outs to score a Run before I lose my mind... :-C

Stinkin mets
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue May 07, 2013 9:49 pm

Anybody listen to the Hawk Harrelson feed of the game? How many times did he point out that Matt Harvey doesn't have "the will to win"?
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby garf112 » Tue May 07, 2013 9:52 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
garf112 wrote:So, what do we think now???

I think the Mets have 3 outs to score a Run before I lose my mind... :-C


They took more than that, but still scored the final run... More importantly, how about that Matt Harvey? His changeup is completely unreal. Is MLB still hitting .000 against it? I'm guessing, yes.
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