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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:39 pm

He didn't have the best control in the minors so let's see what happens when a team forces him into the strike zone instead of helping him out.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby thatguy27 » Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:45 pm

kab21 wrote:He didn't have the best control in the minors so let's see what happens when a team forces him into the strike zone instead of helping him out.


Wouldn't you think that teams would be doing, or trying to do that, already? He's been in the bigs for a bit now--it's not like he just arrived and is catching teams off guard. There's enough tape on him that teams should know what to expect.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:53 pm

thatguy27 wrote:
kab21 wrote:He didn't have the best control in the minors so let's see what happens when a team forces him into the strike zone instead of helping him out.


Wouldn't you think that teams would be doing, or trying to do that, already? He's been in the bigs for a bit now--it's not like he just arrived and is catching teams off guard. There's enough tape on him that teams should know what to expect.


He pitched against the Padres, Twins and Phillies. Of course that is going to be the strategy but those teams aren't filled with top hitters to make him pay for being in the zone. Let's see what happens when he matches up against the Braves, Nationals and Cards a couple of times.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Mon Apr 15, 2013 2:27 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:Seeing that his best stuff is unhittable (read: his slider and fastball in particular), he should have what it takes to grind out the starts where everything isn't going his way.


Brandon Morrow was lights out when he had his good stuff his first few years too. He was a disaster when he didn't have it. I want to see Harvey face a decent team with bad stuff and not have a disaster. That is what will make him a legit ace. If he can't do that he is more of a soft ace like a Gallardo type. He has had about the easiest schedule you could ask for so far and his arm is fresh. He still is technically in his 1st time around the league too and pitchers have a huge advantage the 1st time.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Apr 15, 2013 4:52 pm

Here's the thing you guys are forgetting, though...
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby thatguy27 » Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:12 pm

kab21 wrote:
thatguy27 wrote:
kab21 wrote:He didn't have the best control in the minors so let's see what happens when a team forces him into the strike zone instead of helping him out.


Wouldn't you think that teams would be doing, or trying to do that, already? He's been in the bigs for a bit now--it's not like he just arrived and is catching teams off guard. There's enough tape on him that teams should know what to expect.


He pitched against the Padres, Twins and Phillies. Of course that is going to be the strategy but those teams aren't filled with top hitters to make him pay for being in the zone. Let's see what happens when he matches up against the Braves, Nationals and Cards a couple of times.


I understand that his schedule has been a cakewalk, and that other teams will certainly test him more. But he can only pitch to the teams on his schedule. And the results so far are video game like: 22 IP, 25 K, 6 BB, 6 H, 2 R, 0.82 ERA, 0.55 WHIP. I mean, he did what he had to do against the competition he faced. So even if the better offenses do give him a more difficult test, his numbers have a lot of room to go up while still being very very good. In his 3 games last season against the 3 teams you mentioned, he posted 16 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 11 BB, and 17 Ks. So, yes, his control was an issue with those 11 BBs. But even so the K's were there and he was able to manage solid outings despite his control issues, which suggests he has the killer instinct necessary to gut it out in tough situations. We have to assume he's improved since then, so if he pitches similar to or better than he did last season against those teams this season while dominating the teams he should, he'll easily post ace like numbers.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:50 pm

thatguy27 wrote:I understand that his schedule has been a cakewalk, and that other teams will certainly test him more. But he can only pitch to the teams on his schedule. And the results so far are video game like: 22 IP, 25 K, 6 BB, 6 H, 2 R, 0.82 ERA, 0.55 WHIP. I mean, he did what he had to do against the competition he faced. So even if the better offenses do give him a more difficult test, his numbers have a lot of room to go up while still being very very good. In his 3 games last season against the 3 teams you mentioned, he posted 16 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 11 BB, and 17 Ks. So, yes, his control was an issue with those 11 BBs. But even so the K's were there and he was able to manage solid outings despite his control issues, which suggests he has the killer instinct necessary to gut it out in tough situations. We have to assume he's improved since then, so if he pitches similar to or better than he did last season against those teams this season while dominating the teams he should, he'll easily post ace like numbers.


You are getting way ahead of yourself. It was a great 3 starts to open the season but at the end of the day it was only 3 starts. Maholm, Ogando, Masterson and Ryu have put up similar numbers. I don't think anyone is suggesting that these guys will easily post ace numbers.

Let's not make it sound like I don't like Harvey though. I think he's pretty awesome but anyone thinking that a young pitcher will simply dominate from day one in the majors is a little too optimistic. I comped him to last year's Matt Moore. They both have excellent stuff and can rack up K's but there were signs that he could struggle with his control and he did.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:57 pm

I think we have seen enough to consider him a legit soft ace.

He is in that tier 4 or 5 in the cafe rankings which goes from 16 to 36. Those are exactly the guys I like to build my rotation around. He has to show he can do it all year long, on a bad day and against a great hitting team to be in that top 15.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby thatguy27 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:54 am

kab21 wrote:
thatguy27 wrote:I understand that his schedule has been a cakewalk, and that other teams will certainly test him more. But he can only pitch to the teams on his schedule. And the results so far are video game like: 22 IP, 25 K, 6 BB, 6 H, 2 R, 0.82 ERA, 0.55 WHIP. I mean, he did what he had to do against the competition he faced. So even if the better offenses do give him a more difficult test, his numbers have a lot of room to go up while still being very very good. In his 3 games last season against the 3 teams you mentioned, he posted 16 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 11 BB, and 17 Ks. So, yes, his control was an issue with those 11 BBs. But even so the K's were there and he was able to manage solid outings despite his control issues, which suggests he has the killer instinct necessary to gut it out in tough situations. We have to assume he's improved since then, so if he pitches similar to or better than he did last season against those teams this season while dominating the teams he should, he'll easily post ace like numbers.


You are getting way ahead of yourself. It was a great 3 starts to open the season but at the end of the day it was only 3 starts. Maholm, Ogando, Masterson and Ryu have put up similar numbers. I don't think anyone is suggesting that these guys will easily post ace numbers.

Well, I didn't say he'll easily post ace like numbers based solely on his first three starts... I said IF he can gut it out against the tough teams like he showed he could last season, and continue to dominate against the weaker offenses, THEN he'll easily post ace like numbers. Now, I know you could say that about any pitcher, so it's not exactly enlightening (for lack of a better word--there is a better word but it escapes me). But the point I was trying to make is that there is evidence that suggests he has the ability to do just that. I'm not saying it's a certainly, but I definitely like his chances.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby thatguy27 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:57 am

And understand none of this is to say that I'm dismissing what you're saying. I hear you loud and clear, and I don't disagree. I'm just a big believer in his ability to become a top tier pitcher. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I just feel strongly that Harvey is the real deal and believe he has the ability to be an annual CY contender.
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