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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:16 pm

mac-unit wrote:He went from 93 innings to 135 innings to 169.1 innings to this years 178.1


None of those jumps were beyond excessive. Some people just get hurt and there's no stopping it. Everybodys body is different


Do you disagree that Harvey's usage this year was more typical of a veteran starter? Do you disagree that rookie's should have lighter workloads?

He was on pace for about 220 IP which would have blown away the Verducci Effect that you mentioned or a typical rookie limit of 200 IP. The fact is that the Mets were riding him this year. This is nothing like what the Cubs did with Prior but that is the extreme situation.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby jackie hayes » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:29 pm

kab21 wrote:
mac-unit wrote:He went from 93 innings to 135 innings to 169.1 innings to this years 178.1


None of those jumps were beyond excessive. Some people just get hurt and there's no stopping it. Everybodys body is different


Do you disagree that Harvey's usage this year was more typical of a veteran starter? Do you disagree that rookie's should have lighter workloads?

He was on pace for about 220 IP which would have blown away the Verducci Effect that you mentioned or a typical rookie limit of 200 IP. The fact is that the Mets were riding him this year. This is nothing like what the Cubs did with Prior but that is the extreme situation.


But he would not have kept up that pace for the rest of the season. Plus, he was throwing fewer pitches per inning.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:46 pm

jackie hayes wrote:
But he would not have kept up that pace for the rest of the season. Plus, he was throwing fewer pitches per inning.


The only way that he doesn't keep that pace up is by getting shut down. That's not the same as a lighter workload. the damage is usually done when a pitcher is tiring at the end of the game.

He's also still 25th in total pitches thrown. He was efficient but that doesn't mean that he didn't throw a lot this year. The facts are that he pitched a lot and I don't understand how that is even debatable.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby jackie hayes » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:52 pm

kab21 wrote:
jackie hayes wrote:
But he would not have kept up that pace for the rest of the season. Plus, he was throwing fewer pitches per inning.


The only way that he doesn't keep that pace up is by getting shut down. That's not the same as a lighter workload. the damage is usually done when a pitcher is tiring at the end of the game.

He's also still 25th in total pitches thrown. He was efficient but that doesn't mean that he didn't throw a lot this year. The facts are that he pitched a lot and I don't understand how that is even debatable.


Not with roster expansion; you can skip a start or push someone back a day or two without problems.

He has pitched a lot, but he's used to pitching a lot. 170 ip isn't a low baseline.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:38 pm

mac-unit wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
mac-unit wrote:He went from 93 innings to 135 innings to 169.1 innings to this years 178.1


None of those jumps were beyond excessive. Some people just get hurt and there's no stopping it. Everybodys body is different

Please, please, please, do not ever use the "Verducci Effect". It's worthless, despite how much Tom loves to drag it's ugly corpse out at the beginning of every season.


So it's coincidence that teams suddenly started to put innings and pitch caps on young pitchers.

There has been tons of research into innings/pitch count reduction, that doesn't mean every single bit of it is correct. Verducci's formula was flawed because not all innings are created equally, and there's nothing to show that an increase in innings actually causes harm. It's been debunked by Baseball Prospectus, on multiple occasions I believe. Pitching tired and pitching at max effort is correlated with arm injuries. This is partially why relief pitchers burn out so fast (along with irregular rest patterns) despite barely throwing any innings. If Harvey is regularly throwing 110+ pitches at max effort and even up to 120, he's at a much greater risk of injury than guys that throw 90-100 pitches per outing. Chris Sale is the exception, not the rule.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby mac-unit » Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:18 am

lol you should look at numbers before you post your research. He's thrown 2697 pitches over 26 starts. That's an average of 103.7 pitches per start. The 3.7 extra pitches per game obviously is the blame for the injury.

It most definitely isn't the fact that he threw 120 pitches or more 6 times his senior season of college. It's all the mets fault for handling him wrong.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:50 pm

mac-unit wrote:lol you should look at numbers before you post your research. He's thrown 2697 pitches over 26 starts. That's an average of 103.7 pitches per start. The 3.7 extra pitches per game obviously is the blame for the injury.

It most definitely isn't the fact that he threw 120 pitches or more 6 times his senior season of college. It's all the mets fault for handling him wrong.


taking an average really isn't the way to analyze the data.

Did you know that college pitchers (and Japanese pitchers) get 6 rest days and typically throw more pitches/start?

It's baffling that people can look at data that shows someone ranked among the league leaders (top 20 in almost every usage metric) and say that someone wasn't used like a veteran. This isn't a case of gross overuse but I remember several instances where Harvey was sent back into a game that was out of reach when he was already around 100 pitches. there really isn't any reason to do that when you plan on shutting a pitcher down early to avoid overusing his arm.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby mac-unit » Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:20 pm

kab21 wrote:
mac-unit wrote:lol you should look at numbers before you post your research. He's thrown 2697 pitches over 26 starts. That's an average of 103.7 pitches per start. The 3.7 extra pitches per game obviously is the blame for the injury.

It most definitely isn't the fact that he threw 120 pitches or more 6 times his senior season of college. It's all the mets fault for handling him wrong.


taking an average really isn't the way to analyze the data.

Did you know that college pitchers (and Japanese pitchers) get 6 rest days and typically throw more pitches/start?

It's baffling that people can look at data that shows someone ranked among the league leaders (top 20 in almost every usage metric) and say that someone wasn't used like a veteran. This isn't a case of gross overuse but I remember several instances where Harvey was sent back into a game that was out of reach when he was already around 100 pitches. there really isn't any reason to do that when you plan on shutting a pitcher down early to avoid overusing his arm.


Did you know he threw 130+ pitches 3 times that year(including 1 game with 157 pitches)? And the last game he threw 130 pitches, 5 days later they had him throw 124 pitches.


Look at his gamelog. The only extensive work he got without getting extra rest before or after was a 3 game period leading up to the all star break.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:30 pm

So his college team overworked him more than the Mets did. They were both wrong... is that better? Considering the damage that they admitted he already had when he joined the team, you'd think that would cause them to go easier on him, as opposed to working him like an established veteran right from the start. The Mets have a vested interest in his long-term health so they had much more incentive to keep his arm in good shape. MLB pitchers of Harvey's quality are worth on the order of $25M/yr whereas to a college team they might be worth what, a couple hundred thousand bucks for a couple years before they bolt for the majors? The moral hazard of college coaches deciding on the pitch counts of young pitchers is a very real problem though, to be sure. Use them, abuse them, and replace them.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:21 pm

So Harvey is likely going to play in the AFL. My theory: they know he needs surgery, but he's resisting and they want him to find out for himself that rehab won't work before Spring Training rolls around.
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