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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Element » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:18 pm

kab21 wrote:
Element wrote:
Sure. He had some elevated pitch counts. But you'd expect to be there when throwing 8 innings plus nearly every start. I watched nearly every start and everything looked smooth and effortless. He labored in very few starts this season. When it's time for the ligament to go it'll go. I don't care if you throw 100+ pitches every game or only get into a game every now and again. It doesn't matter if you throw 85 or 95. All of these things being done in today's game to prevent the injury is somewhat ridiculous. Are rebuilding clubs supposed to put their guys in a bubble until they're ready to compete again? I have no issues at all with the way that the Mets treated him. I wish more teams would loosen kid gloves a bit.


He's a rookie that was still adjusting to a major league workload that was going to be shutdown at some point. These guys are always in bubbles when pitch counts are concerned. What's the point of sending him back out there down by 3+ runs and already over 100 pitches?


I, personally, would be more concerned with pitchers that display less efficiency. For as many innings as he's totaled, he's only 37th in the league in pitches per inning. He has not labored at all this season. And for someone that throws as hard as he does, he hardly looked like he's trying. If pitchers are going to break, they'll break. There isn't a mathematical formula for this. Until his last start, he's looked in control and effortless since his call up. Again, as Harvey mentioned yesterday, forearm stiffness is not something that is new to him. He has experienced it since high school after his starts. This could've been there the entire time. When it's time, it's just time.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby jackie hayes » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:41 pm

Skin Blues wrote:It's pretty clear that he was abused a lot more than most teams' young pitchers. Just quickly looking at the top young starting pitchers, Jose Fernandez didn't throw 110 pitches in any outing, Shelby Miller maxed out at 113, Chris Archer, Julio Teheran, Wily Peralta and Tony Cingrani each only had one game above 110, Gerrit Cole maxed out at 102, Dan Straily maxed out at 103.

So all those seven guys combined had a total of for 10 games of 110+ pitches, compared to Harvey having 9 all on his own. And between all 7 guys, only one of them reached 120 pitches a single time, and it was Fredi Gonzalez sending Julio Teheran back out in the 9th to try to finish off a CGSO with a 5-0 lead (which is completely unacceptable, and I'm sure he got an earful since he hasn't gone past 110 since that time).

We don't know for sure what the thresholds are for pitcher injures, and surely it's different for everybody since all arms are different. But we do know that Harvey was pushed a lot harder in terms of pitch counts than any of his contemporaries, and now he's probably going to be on the DL until 2015.


I don't agree with that -- especially the "a lot"s. The overall difference in average pitch count is small, compared to other young successful pitchers. (Corbin is around 99 pitches per start, Miller is around the same if you toss his 2-pitch start, Harvey's just below 104. Chris Sale is the high man at 109.) Some young pitchers don't match up well -- Cole and Fernandez, for example, are both younger (much younger, in Fernandez's case) and coming off lower inning counts last year. For some of the rest, I don't see a huge difference in the distribution of pitch counts. Archer has only one game over 110 pitches, true, but he has 3 at 109, with 10 fewer starts. Miller doesn't seem much different (5 over 110, and coming off fewer innings in 2012).
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:01 pm

I've never seen anybody look at average pitch counts to gauge injury risk. Doesn't make much sense intuitively, either. You'd be hard-pressed to find an MLB front office that thinks 80-120-100 is just as hard on an arm as 100-100-100. You could mix in a 140 pitch outing into a normal pitcher's season and it might only bump the average up by 1 or 2 pitchers/start, and do a ton of damage (ask Johan Santana about that). It's the outliers that seem to be correlated to arm injuries, or so believes the vast majority of people that make million dollar decisions based on this information. Harvey having two starts above 120 is very abnormal. Definitely doesn't mean that's what necessarily caused the injury, but it shows that the Mets were more careless with him than essentially every other team is with their own young pitchers. Except I guess the White Sox with Chris Sale, although even he didn't reach 120 pitches in an outing until his third full season.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby TheTrith » Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:39 pm

Why dont teams gives every single pitcher of any value that they control an elbow/shoulder MRI at least once before the season begins, and at least once during the season, just to have an idea wtf is going on inside there?
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby jackie hayes » Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:12 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I've never seen anybody look at average pitch counts to gauge injury risk. Doesn't make much sense intuitively, either. You'd be hard-pressed to find an MLB front office that thinks 80-120-100 is just as hard on an arm as 100-100-100. You could mix in a 140 pitch outing into a normal pitcher's season and it might only bump the average up by 1 or 2 pitchers/start, and do a ton of damage (ask Johan Santana about that). It's the outliers that seem to be correlated to arm injuries, or so believes the vast majority of people that make million dollar decisions based on this information. Harvey having two starts above 120 is very abnormal. Definitely doesn't mean that's what necessarily caused the injury, but it shows that the Mets were more careless with him than essentially every other team is with their own young pitchers. Except I guess the White Sox with Chris Sale, although even he didn't reach 120 pitches in an outing until his third full season.


Noone's saying the average is all-important, I just thought "abused a lot more" suggested something like a pattern. But for two games of 121 pitches, I'm just going to disagree on that being "a lot more".

Now, on Sale, he hit 117, 118, and 119 pitches in his first year. No, it's not 120, but...
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Element » Tue Aug 27, 2013 7:49 pm

jackie hayes wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:I've never seen anybody look at average pitch counts to gauge injury risk. Doesn't make much sense intuitively, either. You'd be hard-pressed to find an MLB front office that thinks 80-120-100 is just as hard on an arm as 100-100-100. You could mix in a 140 pitch outing into a normal pitcher's season and it might only bump the average up by 1 or 2 pitchers/start, and do a ton of damage (ask Johan Santana about that). It's the outliers that seem to be correlated to arm injuries, or so believes the vast majority of people that make million dollar decisions based on this information. Harvey having two starts above 120 is very abnormal. Definitely doesn't mean that's what necessarily caused the injury, but it shows that the Mets were more careless with him than essentially every other team is with their own young pitchers. Except I guess the White Sox with Chris Sale, although even he didn't reach 120 pitches in an outing until his third full season.


Noone's saying the average is all-important, I just thought "abused a lot more" suggested something like a pattern. But for two games of 121 pitches, I'm just going to disagree on that being "a lot more".

Now, on Sale, he hit 117, 118, and 119 pitches in his first year. No, it's not 120, but...


...not to mention that Sale's frame isn't built for a workload like that. I'm not sure what those IP totals were in that count, but I'm guessing that they weren't of the 8-9 inning variety. Sale is also max effort. In fact, I hate watching him because it actually hurts my arm.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:45 pm

jackie hayes wrote:
kab21 wrote:He is currently 8th in the majors in innings pitched and 16th in pitcher abuse points (from BP). He pitched a lot compared to other MLB starters especially considering the team was going to shut him because they were concerned about his arm.


I didn't know what PAP was, so I looked it up, and I'm skeptical. I can't find anything that shows it's predictive, but I'm willing to be convinced. Also, I'm not sure how bad 16th would be, particularly considering that very high pc have become much rarer.

He has pitched a good number of innings, but a lot of that is being consistently great -- he's not getting tagged every so often and getting pulled early, a la Wily Peralta. At this point last year, he was at 148 or so. So 178 seems to be an unsurprising total, only slightly higher that you'd expect, given the usual idea of stretching a starter out by 30-40 ip, and Harvey had (obviously) been a lot more efficient with his pitches this year (fewer per ip).


All of the stats that I have referenced show that Harvey was used like veteran in his rookie season. There is no magic formula for predicting arm injuries but rookies imo should be handled with more care than veterans. I'm not sure how this is debateable unless it's a shutting down vs critical playoff run debate. As far as the Mets are concerned they are not in a critical playoff run.

Pitcher abuse points isn't a magic stat but it more heavily weighs higher pitch count games than a consistent average # of pitches. This makes it a slightly better stat than simply looking at innings pitched or total number of pitches.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby mac-unit » Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:25 am

He went from 93 innings to 135 innings to 169.1 innings to this years 178.1


None of those jumps were beyond excessive. Some people just get hurt and there's no stopping it. Everybodys body is different
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:20 am

mac-unit wrote:He went from 93 innings to 135 innings to 169.1 innings to this years 178.1


None of those jumps were beyond excessive. Some people just get hurt and there's no stopping it. Everybodys body is different

Please, please, please, do not ever use the "Verducci Effect". It's worthless, despite how much Tom loves to drag it's ugly corpse out at the beginning of every season.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby mac-unit » Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:48 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
mac-unit wrote:He went from 93 innings to 135 innings to 169.1 innings to this years 178.1


None of those jumps were beyond excessive. Some people just get hurt and there's no stopping it. Everybodys body is different

Please, please, please, do not ever use the "Verducci Effect". It's worthless, despite how much Tom loves to drag it's ugly corpse out at the beginning of every season.


So it's coincidence that teams suddenly started to put innings and pitch caps on young pitchers.
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