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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 9:56 pm

Element wrote:They were saying on MLB Tonight that he could have been pitching with this since High School. Harvey said that forearm tightness was fairly normal for him. The Mets treated him fine.


I remember several times in the season that Mets threw him out there for an extra inning a lost game despite being at 100+ pitches. He had two 121 pitch games and 9 games were 110 pitches or more. that has to raise some eyebrows with someone as critical to the Mets success as Harvey.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby chargerss24 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 10:22 pm

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Element » Mon Aug 26, 2013 10:49 pm

kab21 wrote:
Element wrote:They were saying on MLB Tonight that he could have been pitching with this since High School. Harvey said that forearm tightness was fairly normal for him. The Mets treated him fine.


I remember several times in the season that Mets threw him out there for an extra inning a lost game despite being at 100+ pitches. He had two 121 pitch games and 9 games were 110 pitches or more. that has to raise some eyebrows with someone as critical to the Mets success as Harvey.


Sure. He had some elevated pitch counts. But you'd expect to be there when throwing 8 innings plus nearly every start. I watched nearly every start and everything looked smooth and effortless. He labored in very few starts this season. When it's time for the ligament to go it'll go. I don't care if you throw 100+ pitches every game or only get into a game every now and again. It doesn't matter if you throw 85 or 95. All of these things being done in today's game to prevent the injury is somewhat ridiculous. Are rebuilding clubs supposed to put their guys in a bubble until they're ready to compete again? I have no issues at all with the way that the Mets treated him. I wish more teams would loosen kid gloves a bit.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby TheTrith » Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:13 pm

While that may be true, its hilarious how incompetent Mets management is.
Literally hours after Alderson declared that Harvey would have his workload limited, Collins allowed him to throw one of those 120+ pitch games, running him out for an extra inning after struggling the previous inning and already eclipsing 100 pitches.

Whether the way they handeled him had anything to do with the injury or not, the Mets will be justly criticized for poor management.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:41 pm

Element wrote:
Sure. He had some elevated pitch counts. But you'd expect to be there when throwing 8 innings plus nearly every start. I watched nearly every start and everything looked smooth and effortless. He labored in very few starts this season. When it's time for the ligament to go it'll go. I don't care if you throw 100+ pitches every game or only get into a game every now and again. It doesn't matter if you throw 85 or 95. All of these things being done in today's game to prevent the injury is somewhat ridiculous. Are rebuilding clubs supposed to put their guys in a bubble until they're ready to compete again? I have no issues at all with the way that the Mets treated him. I wish more teams would loosen kid gloves a bit.


He's a rookie that was still adjusting to a major league workload that was going to be shutdown at some point. These guys are always in bubbles when pitch counts are concerned. What's the point of sending him back out there down by 3+ runs and already over 100 pitches?
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby jackie hayes » Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:22 am

3 of the 9 110+ games were exactly 110 pitches. Then there were 112, 114, 116, and the two at 121. That doesn't seem in any way excessive. Say that 105 is a normal, target pitch count. So a handful of times he went 10 pitches beyond that. And twice he went about 15 pitches beyond. That's the difference between TJ and an injury-prone career? About 50 pitches spaced over the course of a season?

I'm in favor of watching pitch counts, and I'm all for being careful with young pitchers. But this is being too fine about it.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby jackie hayes » Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:32 am

kab21 wrote:He's a rookie that was still adjusting to a major league workload that was going to be shutdown at some point. These guys are always in bubbles when pitch counts are concerned. What's the point of sending him back out there down by 3+ runs and already over 100 pitches?


"At some point", sure, but not very soon. He threw about 170 innings last year (not sure about pitches, but doubtful it was significantly lower). That puts him on track for 200-210 ip, depending on how conservative a team wants to be. That's very nearly a full workload; he wasn't a pitcher you'd need to coddle. Plus, his late-season pitch counts weren't all that high. This isn't like young Mark Prior throwing 130+ almost every time out at the end of a season.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:10 am

jackie hayes wrote:
kab21 wrote:He's a rookie that was still adjusting to a major league workload that was going to be shutdown at some point. These guys are always in bubbles when pitch counts are concerned. What's the point of sending him back out there down by 3+ runs and already over 100 pitches?


"At some point", sure, but not very soon. He threw about 170 innings last year (not sure about pitches, but doubtful it was significantly lower). That puts him on track for 200-210 ip, depending on how conservative a team wants to be. That's very nearly a full workload; he wasn't a pitcher you'd need to coddle. Plus, his late-season pitch counts weren't all that high. This isn't like young Mark Prior throwing 130+ almost every time out at the end of a season.


He is currently 8th in the majors in innings pitched and 16th in pitcher abuse points (from BP). He pitched a lot compared to other MLB starters especially considering the team was going to shut him because they were concerned about his arm.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:42 am

It's pretty clear that he was abused a lot more than most teams' young pitchers. Just quickly looking at the top young starting pitchers, Jose Fernandez didn't throw 110 pitches in any outing, Shelby Miller maxed out at 113, Chris Archer, Julio Teheran, Wily Peralta and Tony Cingrani each only had one game above 110, Gerrit Cole maxed out at 102, Dan Straily maxed out at 103.

So all those seven guys combined had a total of for 10 games of 110+ pitches, compared to Harvey having 9 all on his own. And between all 7 guys, only one of them reached 120 pitches a single time, and it was Fredi Gonzalez sending Julio Teheran back out in the 9th to try to finish off a CGSO with a 5-0 lead (which is completely unacceptable, and I'm sure he got an earful since he hasn't gone past 110 since that time).

We don't know for sure what the thresholds are for pitcher injures, and surely it's different for everybody since all arms are different. But we do know that Harvey was pushed a lot harder in terms of pitch counts than any of his contemporaries, and now he's probably going to be on the DL until 2015.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby jackie hayes » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:53 pm

kab21 wrote:He is currently 8th in the majors in innings pitched and 16th in pitcher abuse points (from BP). He pitched a lot compared to other MLB starters especially considering the team was going to shut him because they were concerned about his arm.


I didn't know what PAP was, so I looked it up, and I'm skeptical. I can't find anything that shows it's predictive, but I'm willing to be convinced. Also, I'm not sure how bad 16th would be, particularly considering that very high pc have become much rarer.

He has pitched a good number of innings, but a lot of that is being consistently great -- he's not getting tagged every so often and getting pulled early, a la Wily Peralta. At this point last year, he was at 148 or so. So 178 seems to be an unsurprising total, only slightly higher that you'd expect, given the usual idea of stretching a starter out by 30-40 ip, and Harvey had (obviously) been a lot more efficient with his pitches this year (fewer per ip).
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