jfg wrote:I'm assuming the 2nd tier consists of Cain, Lee, Sale, Moore, Hamels, Sabathia, with Latos and Gio on the edge of 2+3. Price is probably on the edge of 1+2 at least in a keeper.
Give me Harvey for any of those guys in a redraft. But, I wouldn't trade anybody elite for him.
Give me Price over Harvey in a keeper but I'd probably have to think about it for a few days and change my mind about 10 times, all the rest I'd trade straight up for Harvey. Again, I wouldn't trade any elite pitcher for Harvey in a keeper.
That places Harvey pretty much in his own tier 1b.
From today on I'd rather have Hamels, Sabathia, Latos, Gio, Moore, Sale, Lee than Harvey. I'm legitimately worried about Cain at this point so I'd have to think hard about him. I think Harvey is going to have a bad (relative tot he top 12 pitchers that is, not awful though) 2nd half as he tires out and that they will likely pull him with an innings limit since they have no chance to compete, plus the lack of a real offense limits the wins. It isn't about how good a pitcher he is, it is about the situation he is in. He is in my top 20 but no question at all about him being in the top 10, he just isn't for this year. Next year drafts I could see him being in the top 10 overall though.
That isn't a knock on Harvey at all, he has the rare commodity of a rising fastball and he has been efficient enough to go into the 7th and 8th inning on a regular basis, everything about him suggests this isn't just a fluke. The reality though is that hitters will get a book on him, stop swinging at the rising fastball that ends up being a ball, will understand his pitch sequencing better, he'll face something other than the top 10 worst offenses in baseball at some point, his offense won't get him enough wins and they'll shut him down at some point so everything is working against him being a top 10 guy from this point on.