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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:49 am

I don't see anything pointing to him relying on getting batters to chase, any more than every other pitcher does. He gets lots of swings and misses on pitches is the zone, and his chase rate is merely league average (33%). He's simply been really good. I'd be concerned about how much he improved over both his minor league K% and BB%, but nothing in the numbers suggests it's a fluke or unsustainable, and the scouts have liked him for a while.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby rjforlife » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:06 pm

Yea I'm pretty sure most good pitchers get guys to chase because thats how you get guys out unless you are Greg Maddux or another rare perfect control guy. I like Harvey's stuff a lot, especially that he isn't afraid to pump the high heat when he needs a strike. I think his confidence is a big thing he has going for him, and trusting his stuff is really going to help him succeed, because his stuff is up there with some really good pitchers right now.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby bigken117 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:58 pm

Harvey went 2-2 last night and is now 5-11

Jason Bay is 5 for his last 60
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Element » Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:07 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I don't see anything pointing to him relying on getting batters to chase, any more than every other pitcher does. He gets lots of swings and misses on pitches is the zone, and his chase rate is merely league average (33%). He's simply been really good. I'd be concerned about how much he improved over both his minor league K% and BB%, but nothing in the numbers suggests it's a fluke or unsustainable, and the scouts have liked him for a while.


I'm not sure how true it is since I did not follow him closely before his callup, but I thought that I heard Ron Darling talking about how they tried to get him to tinker with a 2-seamer in AAA. Since then he has basically scratched it and is working from his 4-seamer (much better control and velocity) & breaking stuff. If true, that obviously has impacted his MiLB ratios. Ultimately, when you have a guy with a big 12 to 6 hook like he does, that 4-seamer up is your setup pitch & really plays with eye levels. I've watched 4 of his starts so far. I think that he's the real deal.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby exm » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:26 pm

I would rate him between an ace and a top 2 pitcher. So extremely high ceiling, but he has to prove he's elite.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:28 pm

Where did you get your numbers because PitchFX plate discipline has him (if qualified) ranking in the top 20 (out of 99) in swings outside of the strikezone and in the bottom 20 of pitches thrown inside the strikezone. That can work but that definitely sounds like a pitcher counting on hitters to chase.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Aug 24, 2012 12:37 am

To be honest I just looked at the previous 30 days' data, since that's when Harvey was called up. He's 38th out of the 110 pitchers that qualify in chase rate. He's lower than average in % pitches in the zone, but he's also above average in terms of first pitch strike %. Overall his plate discipline stats are similar to the likes of Bumgarner/Hamels/Weaver/Halladay/Verlander. Not something I'd be concerned about.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:15 am

I'm not sure where the disconnect is but I really like Harvey. I mention facts as facts AND say that it can work. What separates the elite pitchers is that they've shown that hitters will keep chasing no matter how many times they see a pitcher. Harvey has made a handful of starts and even though he looks awesome he still needs to show that he can do it for a longer period of time.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby RedHopeful » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:48 pm

bigken117 wrote:Harvey went 2-2 last night and is now 5-11

Jason Bay is 5 for his last 60

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As far as the original topic, Harvey is a nice young pitcher but as kab21 just stated, he's going have to do a lot more before I consider him a legit ace.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sat Aug 25, 2012 6:39 pm

I've watched most of Harvey's starts and I am very impressed! I wouldn't set 2013 for Harvey being an "ace" but he certainly could be in the near future (2014/2014 perhaps?). Some growing pains are to be expected.

Great thing for the Mets- Harvey isn't even their best young pitcher. Wheeler has that honor.

Off topic- how about this McHugh kid? He had a pretty darn impressive outing vs. the Rockies.
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