I am in a 12-team H2H Keeper and can already tell that I have a major surplus of keepers. We can only keep 4 players (3 years) in exchange for the spots they were drafted (or if they weren't drafted, you lose a last round pick).
I gave up a 3rd round pick in order to get Holliday and J Johnson, so i'm more tempted to keep players that will require me to give up last round picks. I've been holding onto Bauer for most of the season, so I feel like I must keep him. And Kemp is most certainly going to be kept. So that leaves me with 2 more choices, and I am leaning towards Rizzo and another starter (right now between Bumgarner, Waino, Cashner, and B Anderson).
C - M Montero (8th round) 1st - Rizzo (FA Pickup/last round) 2nd - Kinsler (2nd round) 3rd - T Fraizer (FA pickup/last round) SS - Castro (3rd round) OF - Bruce (6th round) OF - Kemp (1st round) OF - Ethier (10th round) Util - Holliday (5th round/acquired through trade)
Bench: Ortiz (12th round), Lawrie (5th round)
Bumgarner (7th round) Lester (4th round) Wainwright (7th round) Hanson (9th round) Harrison (FA pickup, last round) J Johnson (8th round) B Anderson (FA pickup, last round) Bauer (FA pickup, last round) Cashner (FA pickup, last round)
I'm in agreement with H-Man for keeping proven talent. 4 spots is not a lot of keepers so I would want those guys to be can't miss type of players. Bargain players would certainly help, but I'd keep proven talent over speculation. That said, I would keep the following- OF - Kemp (1st round)- Not much value to be gained here, but for a 1st round pick you could do a lot worse than Kemp.
OF - Bruce (6th round)- I think he has some pretty good value here. Still young and improving. Will break even for a 6th round pick at the very least.
Bumgarner (7th round)- Insane value here. Best keeper of the bunch IMO.
The last spot comes down to-
Kinsler (2nd round)- You could do worse with a 2nd round pick. If the draft field looks weak (a lot of good people being held onto) then Kinsler is solid. If the draft looks strong at the top (a lot of talent available) then I would toss back Kinsler in hopes of at least breaking even talent wise.
Ortiz (12th round)- If he stays healthy, this could be an immense steal in the 12th round. He now has 1B eligibility for 2013 Yahoo, which is a HUGE boost. He hits in a great park with a good lineup around him. He hasn't shown any signs of declining in the talent department. He just needs to stay healthy. High upside here, but some risk.
Lawrie (5th round) - Has immense talent and age is on his side. Injuries hurt his value this year, but he could be a top 3B next year. More of a risk than Ortiz IMO as he is less likely to return a 5th round pick.
I'd say Ortiz > Kinsler > Lawrie. If the draft pool is strong top end. If it is weak, then I go Kinsler > Ortiz > Lawrie.