"Who is the guy you expected great things from, only to be massively disappointed?"
I'm pretty sure Upton and Greinke fit into that category for many people here. It's kind of useless to ask "who would you never ever draft, even if it was the last pick". That's why it wasn't what the Kaiser asked. Do we really need a thread to discuss the fantasy future of the likes of Ian Stewart and Brooks Conrad?
I think it's hard to say who I'll be avoiding based on what I project their ADP to be next season. The thing is I don't know yet. There are certainly players that if faced with taking I may cringe a little - like if I fail to get a top 3B and am starting at either Youkilis or Prado late in the draft. Going by position these are the guys I think will be ranked too high purely on speculation
C - Santana, McCann 1B - Teixeira, Howard, Trumbo 2B - Pedroia, Uggla, Zobrist (to a lesser extent Michael Young and Kendrick) 3B - Arod, Sandoval SS - Tulo, Reyes OF - Ellsbury, Bourn, Beltran, Stanton
Pitching I'll hold my opinions until the offseason, but one guy I never want to touch again is Johan Santana.
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Cano 3 ARam S Rollins CI LaRoche MI Altuve O Melky, Pagan, Morse, Hunter, Ruggiano SP Lee, Fister, Estrada, McCarthy, Lohse RP Chapman, Jansen, Frieri, Fujikawa Bench 1 Hart S Cabrera O Eaton U Ortiz P Marcum P Miller P Fernandez
Izenhart wrote:I think it's hard to say who I'll be avoiding based on what I project their ADP to be next season. The thing is I don't know yet. There are certainly players that if faced with taking I may cringe a little - like if I fail to get a top 3B and am starting at either Youkilis or Prado late in the draft. Going by position these are the guys I think will be ranked too high purely on speculation
C - Santana, McCann 1B - Teixeira, Howard, Trumbo 2B - Pedroia, Uggla, Zobrist (to a lesser extent Michael Young and Kendrick) 3B - Arod, Sandoval SS - Tulo, Reyes OF - Ellsbury, Bourn, Beltran, Stanton
Pitching I'll hold my opinions until the offseason, but one guy I never want to touch again is Johan Santana.
Where do you think Carlos Santana is going to be ranked? If its where he was this year then yes that is probably overvalued (although his season was basically ruined due to his concussion)... I'm just curious where you think he will be drafted next year that will cause him to be overvalued. I think he makes for a fine 7th or 8th round pick given his upside and the ability to play 1B to get him more AB's than most catchers.
kaiser wrote:I hear what you are saying, AHF, and you make some good points. My intent with the original post was not really to say, "I'll never take this guy again, as long as I live." Of course, if the price is right, you would be foolish to pass on someone like Upton or Uggla. My point was to try to indentify those guys who, if they come to you at their average draft spot, your past experience of owning them over one or many seasons will make you say, "I think I'll pass and take the next guy on the list.
I know this an imperfect example, but here it goes anyway. According to ESPN live draft results for 2012, Justin Upton's ADP was 13.2. Next on the list was Prince Fielder at 13.5 and Evan Longoria at 14.1. In my next draft, for the 2013 season if I find myself at pick number 13 with Upton, Fielder and Longoria still on the board, I would almost certainly take Fielder or Longoria over Upton.
Now, if Upton is still there in the third round, yes, of course I am taking him.
I know it is an imperfect example, but it's the best I can do right now.
Discuss...
I wasn't trying to be a smart a**, I guess if the issue is about value then it seems identical to the thread right below it about which players you will avoid next year because they will be overpriced.
For someone I will avoid at their price this past season, there is a long list I would include like Adrian Gonzalez, Jacob Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence, Carlos Santana and many others.
#1 on my list of those players is Ryan Zimmerman. He has let me down the past several years in my keeper league and I am ready to move forward with Moose at 3B and not look back at Zimmerman anywhere near the early rounds.
One pitcher I'm going to add to my list of guys I'll probably never touch again is Dan Haren. I don't think if he was a free agent in any league I am in I would even pick him up.
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Cano 3 ARam S Rollins CI LaRoche MI Altuve O Melky, Pagan, Morse, Hunter, Ruggiano SP Lee, Fister, Estrada, McCarthy, Lohse RP Chapman, Jansen, Frieri, Fujikawa Bench 1 Hart S Cabrera O Eaton U Ortiz P Marcum P Miller P Fernandez
I traded Hosmer for Gardner and Cuddyer, since Gardner was only supposed to be out 15 days in April, uhh dude is like dead apparently
That was a great trade for you. You couldnt have foreseen Gardner being out for the rest of the season and Cuddyer has been a pretty good value at 2B and MI. I'm sure everyone here has heard this before, mainly by Cory Schwartz at the 411: "Don't confuse the outcome with the decision."
At the beginning of the season I had Pujols, Upton, and Bautista on my keeper squad and was dead last in most offensive categories.