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Who are you avoiding next year?

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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby jfg » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:17 pm

Willingham has gone under the radar this year and I don't think he's going to be a person people reach for next year. I think he might still be a value pick for HR in next years draft, because I don't see experts and magazines ranking him too high.
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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby JMB05 » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:17 pm

Izenhart wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:just regressing him back to his xBABIP this year his average falls to .320

if that xBABIP falls back a little towards his career levels (which includes this years), his average falls to .304

you also have to assume that his HR/FB isn't gonna remain as high as it is, and while that will probably be made up somewhat as his FB% regresses, he's likely to lose some power (even with a 15% HR/FB this year that's about 4-5 homeruns less). Losing those homeruns could also mean losing some hits as fly balls that don't leave the park are pretty likely to get caught.

I'd put him at about .300-85-25-100-20 which is very good but probably not a first round pick.

But even if he does post that, I wouldn't be disappointed it he posted those numbers and was my first round pick. He's on the lower half of my top 10, buy he's definitely first round material.


I agree, he has shown this year that his upside is quite high, and he doesn't carry the injury prone tag a lot of other guys do. Theres a chance he could be next year's Justin Upton, but I highly doubt it.



Izenhart, I very much enjoy reading your posts, they are very well thought out and you have a knack for writing, but I will disagree with there being any possibility of McCutchen becoming the next J-Up.

Justin Upton is a by-product of piss poor attitudes, runs in the family, and a team that has, at least from the outside, given up on him.

Those factors alone separate those two by miles.

I will say one other thing on this thread, which others have pointed out, I will use this thread to buy value picks next year. People generally and collectively turn on players in down years. For example I new going into the draft that Adam Dunn was the guy to target. Everyone was talking about him not being draftable, knowing that he wasn't going to hit for average he presented the best buy low of the draft (sans Trout, obviously)
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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:38 am

Why have the D'Backs given up on him? Because they put him on the trade block? Every year they put him out there to gauge interest and then pull him back, for whatever reason. Maybe their acountants want to double check their amortization calculations.
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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby Izenhart » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:18 am

JMB05 wrote:
Izenhart wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:But even if he does post that, I wouldn't be disappointed it he posted those numbers and was my first round pick. He's on the lower half of my top 10, buy he's definitely first round material.


I agree, he has shown this year that his upside is quite high, and he doesn't carry the injury prone tag a lot of other guys do. Theres a chance he could be next year's Justin Upton, but I highly doubt it.



Izenhart, I very much enjoy reading your posts, they are very well thought out and you have a knack for writing, but I will disagree with there being any possibility of McCutchen becoming the next J-Up.

Justin Upton is a by-product of piss poor attitudes, runs in the family, and a team that has, at least from the outside, given up on him.

Those factors alone separate those two by miles.

I will say one other thing on this thread, which others have pointed out, I will use this thread to buy value picks next year. People generally and collectively turn on players in down years. For example I new going into the draft that Adam Dunn was the guy to target. Everyone was talking about him not being draftable, knowing that he wasn't going to hit for average he presented the best buy low of the draft (sans Trout, obviously)


Firstly thanks for the kind words. As a fantasy manager who first owned McCutchen last year when I traded for him at the half, and consequently because of this didn't draft him on any teams this season, I may still be sour on him a little. The differences I see when I watch McCutchen and Upton play touch on what you hinted at, with Upton being more of a volatile player emotionally, but that may be due some to his poor season and mounting frustrations. In the book Moneyball, Billy Beane talked of how a players mindset can separate those with equal talent, and I do believe Upton is inevitably fighting himself instead of just going out and playing loose the way McCutchen has been. Aside from their different mental makeup I see different body types as well, McCutchen (5'10, 175) has a much smaller frame than Upton (6'2, 200) and I don't know what kind of power ceiling he will have. For a player his size I'm a little surprised he doesn't steal more bases, especially in the NL on a Pirates team where there's little offense behind him. All this leads me to believe that this year may be his ceiling. And let's not rule out the fact that a players most recent performance is the one he is usually judged by:

McCutchen post break last season:
.216-33-9-35-8

Upton 1st half this season:
.273-54-7-37-10

As bad as people are making Upton's season out to being, McCutchen's 2nd half last year looks worse. The difference of course is McCutchen wasn't a 1st round pick last season and Upton was this season, so it burns more in our minds. Next year the roles will be reversed, and McCutchen will probably be drafted in front of Upton. Upton can still salvage his numbers a bit by going on a Tulowitzki-esque tear in September, but I'll stand by my *very* slight fear of McCutchen falling back into mediocrity next season, based on his second half slump from a year ago.
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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:05 pm

Izenhart wrote:
JMB05 wrote:
Izenhart wrote:
I agree, he has shown this year that his upside is quite high, and he doesn't carry the injury prone tag a lot of other guys do. Theres a chance he could be next year's Justin Upton, but I highly doubt it.



Izenhart, I very much enjoy reading your posts, they are very well thought out and you have a knack for writing, but I will disagree with there being any possibility of McCutchen becoming the next J-Up.

Justin Upton is a by-product of piss poor attitudes, runs in the family, and a team that has, at least from the outside, given up on him.

Those factors alone separate those two by miles.

I will say one other thing on this thread, which others have pointed out, I will use this thread to buy value picks next year. People generally and collectively turn on players in down years. For example I new going into the draft that Adam Dunn was the guy to target. Everyone was talking about him not being draftable, knowing that he wasn't going to hit for average he presented the best buy low of the draft (sans Trout, obviously)


Firstly thanks for the kind words. As a fantasy manager who first owned McCutchen last year when I traded for him at the half, and consequently because of this didn't draft him on any teams this season, I may still be sour on him a little. The differences I see when I watch McCutchen and Upton play touch on what you hinted at, with Upton being more of a volatile player emotionally, but that may be due some to his poor season and mounting frustrations. In the book Moneyball, Billy Beane talked of how a players mindset can separate those with equal talent, and I do believe Upton is inevitably fighting himself instead of just going out and playing loose the way McCutchen has been. Aside from their different mental makeup I see different body types as well, McCutchen (5'10, 175) has a much smaller frame than Upton (6'2, 200) and I don't know what kind of power ceiling he will have. For a player his size I'm a little surprised he doesn't steal more bases, especially in the NL on a Pirates team where there's little offense behind him. All this leads me to believe that this year may be his ceiling. And let's not rule out the fact that a players most recent performance is the one he is usually judged by:

McCutchen post break last season:
.216-33-9-35-8

Upton 1st half this season:
.273-54-7-37-10

As bad as people are making Upton's season out to being, McCutchen's 2nd half last year looks worse. The difference of course is McCutchen wasn't a 1st round pick last season and Upton was this season, so it burns more in our minds. Next year the roles will be reversed, and McCutchen will probably be drafted in front of Upton. Upton can still salvage his numbers a bit by going on a Tulowitzki-esque tear in September, but I'll stand by my *very* slight fear of McCutchen falling back into mediocrity next season, based on his second half slump from a year ago.

Yes, McCutchen's power is very surprising given his size. However, didn't we see Alfonso Soriano have a similar weight and belt out 35+ home runs numerous times? Yes Alfonso is a couple of inches taller, but I dont always think a players home run power should be judged solely on his height and weight. I know you werent necessarily doing that, you were just bringing up the question "Is this his ceiling?" Now, I'm not drafting McCutchen next year expecting his power numbers to take a step forward, but I think we can come to expect 20+ home runs from McCutchen from this season forward (as well as 20+ steals). I can see McCutchen hitting 30 home runs once or twice in his career.

I know that McCutchen was terrible last year after the all-star break, but prior to the break he was batting .291, with 14 homers and 15 steals, and he was slugging over .500... That is the kind of McCutchen I would expect when I draft except for over an entire season. I don't know what happened to him mentally to cause this slump, but I do know that I am not expecting it to happen again. It is entirely possible, but I am buying into this years McCutchen (and last year in the first half).

Justin Upton on the other hand I think needs a brand new situation. I will never be surprised if and when Upton Explodes into a top 10 fantasy player, but I will also never be surprised when he plays like the way he has been playing. You never know with Upton, you just have to get lucky and draft him in the right season (I've actually drafted him each of the last 3 seasons...so I know all about what a headache he can be).

I wouldn't mind owning both players next season, but at this point in time I have more faith in McCutchen. You are right in the sense that we think more in the "what have you done for me recently" point of view, but both players are in their prime and have first round talent.
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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby prguy1979 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:51 pm

i think Jeter will be over valued even more than before
16 team mix BA R RBI BB SB SLG ERA W K HD S Whip
C /Castro
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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:06 pm

prguy1979 wrote:i think Jeter will be over valued even more than before


i kinda doubt it. he was pretty undervalued this year (for probably the first time ever) and i think him being another year older will keep people cautious. i could see him being a target again next year.
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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby prguy1979 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:11 pm

I play against 4 or 5 die hard Yankee fans whom still believe in Joba Chamberlin, i think my choice was more based on my league than anything else. In my league I see him going for the equivalent no later than a late 4th and as high an a late 3rd rounder and thats a price im unwilling to pay. If he makes it to the late 6th round or so I might be tempted.
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C /Castro
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DH
P Sale/Wanwrigth/Wheeler
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Re: Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:17 pm

prguy1979 wrote:I play against 4 or 5 die hard Yankee fans whom still believe in Joba Chamberlin, i think my choice was more based on my league than anything else. In my league I see him going for the equivalent no later than a late 4th and as high an a late 3rd rounder and thats a price im unwilling to pay. If he makes it to the late 6th round or so I might be tempted.


ah, ya i can definitely see him being overvalued in a league of yankee fans. in most leagues this year he was going like late 10th round which I thought was pretty nice value considering the other shortstops in that area. a year older and i don't see that position changing much next year, i'll probably own him on multiple teams yet again.
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Who are you avoiding next year?

Postby lastingsgriller » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:05 am

Jupton and longoria are really polarizing for me. I have no interest in them where they will probably go, but I am absolutely salivating at the thought of how far they 'could' fall.
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