kab21 wrote:McCutchen - the avg will fall back to .300 but he's a .300, 20+/20+ player that could go 30+/30+
His career average coming into this season was .276 - there's quite the possibility he falls well below .300 next season.
I'll revise my expectation to .290 then. I'm still picking him.
I don't think the McCutchen of the last 3 years should be compared to the player that he has become today. If I drafted McCutchen I would fully expect him to hit over .300. Last year when he hit .259 it was due to an awful 2nd half slump that I wouldn't expect from him again. I think .315 25/25 is a fair guess for next season give or take 5 hr/sb. I think he's a top 25 player either way though. I would take McCutchen in round 1 with confidence.
just regressing him back to his xBABIP this year his average falls to .320
if that xBABIP falls back a little towards his career levels (which includes this years), his average falls to .304
you also have to assume that his HR/FB isn't gonna remain as high as it is, and while that will probably be made up somewhat as his FB% regresses, he's likely to lose some power (even with a 15% HR/FB this year that's about 4-5 homeruns less). Losing those homeruns could also mean losing some hits as fly balls that don't leave the park are pretty likely to get caught.
I'd put him at about .300-85-25-100-20 which is very good but probably not a first round pick.
GiantsFan14 wrote:just regressing him back to his xBABIP this year his average falls to .320
if that xBABIP falls back a little towards his career levels (which includes this years), his average falls to .304
you also have to assume that his HR/FB isn't gonna remain as high as it is, and while that will probably be made up somewhat as his FB% regresses, he's likely to lose some power (even with a 15% HR/FB this year that's about 4-5 homeruns less). Losing those homeruns could also mean losing some hits as fly balls that don't leave the park are pretty likely to get caught.
I'd put him at about .300-85-25-100-20 which is very good but probably not a first round pick.
But even if he does post that, I wouldn't be disappointed it he posted those numbers and was my first round pick. He's on the lower half of my top 10, buy he's definitely first round material.
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:Why Chris Young? After this year, I would think his ADP will be way down and he could be a decent guy to try to take a late round flyer on.
Hell I had Young as a 19th round keeper this year, and I'm not sure I'll keep him next year.
GiantsFan14 wrote:just regressing him back to his xBABIP this year his average falls to .320
if that xBABIP falls back a little towards his career levels (which includes this years), his average falls to .304
you also have to assume that his HR/FB isn't gonna remain as high as it is, and while that will probably be made up somewhat as his FB% regresses, he's likely to lose some power (even with a 15% HR/FB this year that's about 4-5 homeruns less). Losing those homeruns could also mean losing some hits as fly balls that don't leave the park are pretty likely to get caught.
I'd put him at about .300-85-25-100-20 which is very good but probably not a first round pick.
But even if he does post that, I wouldn't be disappointed it he posted those numbers and was my first round pick. He's on the lower half of my top 10, buy he's definitely first round material.
I agree, he has shown this year that his upside is quite high, and he doesn't carry the injury prone tag a lot of other guys do. Theres a chance he could be next year's Justin Upton, but I highly doubt it.
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by kab21 » Sat Aug 18, 2012 8:25 am 
