GiantsFan14 wrote:just regressing him back to his xBABIP this year his average falls to .320
if that xBABIP falls back a little towards his career levels (which includes this years), his average falls to .304
you also have to assume that his HR/FB isn't gonna remain as high as it is, and while that will probably be made up somewhat as his FB% regresses, he's likely to lose some power (even with a 15% HR/FB this year that's about 4-5 homeruns less). Losing those homeruns could also mean losing some hits as fly balls that don't leave the park are pretty likely to get caught.
I'd put him at about .300-85-25-100-20 which is very good but probably not a first round pick.
But even if he does post that, I wouldn't be disappointed it he posted those numbers and was my first round pick. He's on the lower half of my top 10, buy he's definitely first round material.
I agree, he has shown this year that his upside is quite high, and he doesn't carry the injury prone tag a lot of other guys do. Theres a chance he could be next year's Justin Upton, but I highly doubt it.
C Mauer 1 E5 2 Altuve 3 ARam S Cabrera CI LaRoche MI Drew O Melky, Cuddyer, Morse, Hunter, McClouth U Ortiz SP Lee, Fister, Miller, Fernandez, Lackey, RP Chapman Frieri Grilli Gregrsn
Bnch 1 Hart 3 Mdlbrk 3 Rendon O Eaton P Lohse Nolasco Santana