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NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:05 am

MurrayKy wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:I made a thread about him, and I'll continue to talk him up here: it should be Jordan Zimmermann. He's completely overshadowed on that Nats team, but he has the best ERA in the NL, and he's been unbelievably consistent. He's only had 1 bad start all year, and he simply gives the team the best chance to win the game (which is saying a lot on a team with Stras and Gio).


Agreed, and I'm gonna put some more emphasis on his consistency.

20 of his 24 starts have been quality starts, and the other three starts have been 5.2IP for 2ER, 5IP for 4ER, and 6IP for 4ER twice. Not horrible starts by any means, and except for the 5IP for 4ER start, those were all almost QS too.

Couple that NL-leading 2.38 ERA with a 5th-best 1.08 WHIP and a 4.22 K/BB, and I don't really think it's even close.
Despite his consistency, Zimm has arguably been the third best pitcher on his own team this year. With the schedule he's got left, my leader in the clubhouse is Clayton Kershaw; not that he wouldn't be right there in the Top 3 if the season ended today. Without the innings limit, it'd probably go to Strasburg, who could still claim it in spite of that.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:24 am

bigh0rt wrote:
MurrayKy wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:I made a thread about him, and I'll continue to talk him up here: it should be Jordan Zimmermann. He's completely overshadowed on that Nats team, but he has the best ERA in the NL, and he's been unbelievably consistent. He's only had 1 bad start all year, and he simply gives the team the best chance to win the game (which is saying a lot on a team with Stras and Gio).


Agreed, and I'm gonna put some more emphasis on his consistency.

20 of his 24 starts have been quality starts, and the other three starts have been 5.2IP for 2ER, 5IP for 4ER, and 6IP for 4ER twice. Not horrible starts by any means, and except for the 5IP for 4ER start, those were all almost QS too.

Couple that NL-leading 2.38 ERA with a 5th-best 1.08 WHIP and a 4.22 K/BB, and I don't really think it's even close.
Despite his consistency, Zimm has arguably been the third best pitcher on his own team this year. With the schedule he's got left, my leader in the clubhouse is Clayton Kershaw; not that he wouldn't be right there in the Top 3 if the season ended today. Without the innings limit, it'd probably go to Strasburg, who could still claim it in spite of that.


He has the best ERA and best WHIP on the team. Name recognition aside, it's difficult to argue he's not the best pitcher on the team.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:12 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
MurrayKy wrote:
Agreed, and I'm gonna put some more emphasis on his consistency.

20 of his 24 starts have been quality starts, and the other three starts have been 5.2IP for 2ER, 5IP for 4ER, and 6IP for 4ER twice. Not horrible starts by any means, and except for the 5IP for 4ER start, those were all almost QS too.

Couple that NL-leading 2.38 ERA with a 5th-best 1.08 WHIP and a 4.22 K/BB, and I don't really think it's even close.
Despite his consistency, Zimm has arguably been the third best pitcher on his own team this year. With the schedule he's got left, my leader in the clubhouse is Clayton Kershaw; not that he wouldn't be right there in the Top 3 if the season ended today. Without the innings limit, it'd probably go to Strasburg, who could still claim it in spite of that.


He has the best ERA and best WHIP on the team. Name recognition aside, it's difficult to argue he's not the best pitcher on the team.
I, like many, don't take ERA terribly serious. It'd be the equivalent of me saying that Gio and Strasburg have more Wins, so they're better. Namely, we haven't really shown anything with either statement. Ryan Vogelsong has a lower ERA than both Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain, and few would argue he's the best pitcher on the staff in San Francisco. Hiroki Kuroda has a lower ERA than CC Sabathia; again, I don't think you'd argue that Kuroda's the best pitcher on the staff. While they were together in Chicago, Paul Maholm's ERA was considerably lower than Jeff Samardzija's, while Sammy was the superior pitcher without question. So, as I said, it could very easily be argued that Zimm has been the third best pitcher on his own team, nevermind the best pitcher in the entire National League. If you're awarding him the NL Cy Young, you might as well just give it to Vogelsong instead, cause he's been just as consistent, and just as good, and is probably also the third best pitcher on his own team; the fourth best if Tim Lincecum is up to snuff.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby mayor quimby » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:17 pm

bigh0rt wrote: I, like many, don't take ERA terribly serious. It'd be the equivalent of me saying that Gio and Strasburg have more Wins, so they're better. Namely, we haven't really shown anything with either statement. Ryan Vogelsong has a lower ERA than both Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain, and few would argue he's the best pitcher on the staff in San Francisco. Hiroki Kuroda has a lower ERA than CC Sabathia; again, I don't think you'd argue that Kuroda's the best pitcher on the staff. While they were together in Chicago, Paul Maholm's ERA was considerably lower than Jeff Samardzija's, while Sammy was the superior pitcher without question. So, as I said, it could very easily be argued that Zimm has been the third best pitcher on his own team, nevermind the best pitcher in the entire National League. If you're awarding him the NL Cy Young, you might as well just give it to Vogelsong instead, cause he's been just as consistent, and just as good, and is probably also the third best pitcher on his own team; the fourth best if Tim Lincecum is up to snuff.


A couple things:

While I do agree that ERA shouldn't be the sole factor in determining the Cy Young winner, it bears a lot more consideration than wins (i.e. Felix winning the Cy with 13 wins). Generally a Cy Young winner has a very low ERA yet does not always have a great number of wins.

I think one can certainly make the argument that Kuroda has been the better pitcher in NY this season. Granted, I'd take CC in a playoff game 100 times out of 100, but Kuroda has just been better this year, if you're relying purely on the stats.

I don't know why you said "you might as well give it to Vogelsong instead," despite the fact that Zimmermann has been better. I just don't understand why you said that. To boot, Vogelsong's last start was an implosion that we've never seen in Zimmermann's entire career, let alone this season.

As far as the Nat's rotation goes, give me Zim in an important game over Gio and Stras any day. In my opinion, Gio shouldn't even be in the conversation, it's between Stras and Zim, and to be honest, Stras tends to get shelled from time to time, he'll have you on the edge of your seat with a much higher walk rate than Zim, and you don't really have to worry about those things when Zim is on the bump.

I just think that Zim has the combination of power and finesse that Stras just doesn't possess. Stras has the overpowering element, but sometimes that works against you. Zim has been an artist out there. He paints like no one else, at least this year.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:28 pm

mayor quimby wrote:I think one can certainly make the argument that Kuroda has been the better pitcher in NY this season. Granted, I'd take CC in a playoff game 100 times out of 100, but Kuroda has just been better this year, if you're relying purely on the stats.
I am relying purely on stats. Just not the same ones as you. My stats give Sabathia the edge in FIP at 3.32 to 3.71, xFIP at 3.24 to 3.70, SIERA at 3.25 to 3.68, and WAR at 3.5 to 3.2. So relying purely on the stats, it appears Sabathia has been better than Kuroda, while striking out 2 more batters per 9. Unless of course, the only stats you're talking about are ERA and WHIP, where Kuroda does have a slight edge. Sabathia is, and has been this entire season, the superior pitcher.

Strangely enough, this same phenomenon occurs when comparing Jordan Zimmermann to Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg, as well as Vogelsong to Cain and Bumgarner.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby mayor quimby » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:44 pm

bigh0rt wrote:I am relying purely on stats. Just not the same ones as you. My stats give Sabathia the edge in FIP at 3.32 to 3.71, xFIP at 3.24 to 3.70, SIERA at 3.25 to 3.68, and WAR at 3.5 to 3.2. So relying purely on the stats, it appears Sabathia has been better than Kuroda, while striking out 2 more batters per 9. Unless of course, the only stats you're talking about are ERA and WHIP, where Kuroda does have a slight edge. Sabathia is, and has been this entire season, the superior pitcher.

Strangely enough, this same phenomenon occurs when comparing Jordan Zimmermann to Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg, as well as Vogelsong to Cain and Bumgarner.


Touche. I suppose Sabathia is having a better season than Kuroda, I'm just blinded by the fact that CC hasn't been nearly as consistent as we're used to seeing.

But I still disagree about Zimmermann. He's having the best season of any Nat's pitcher. Zimm's 4.4 WAR compared to Strasburg's 3.1 is overwhelming.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:47 pm

mayor quimby wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:I am relying purely on stats. Just not the same ones as you. My stats give Sabathia the edge in FIP at 3.32 to 3.71, xFIP at 3.24 to 3.70, SIERA at 3.25 to 3.68, and WAR at 3.5 to 3.2. So relying purely on the stats, it appears Sabathia has been better than Kuroda, while striking out 2 more batters per 9. Unless of course, the only stats you're talking about are ERA and WHIP, where Kuroda does have a slight edge. Sabathia is, and has been this entire season, the superior pitcher.

Strangely enough, this same phenomenon occurs when comparing Jordan Zimmermann to Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg, as well as Vogelsong to Cain and Bumgarner.


Touche. I suppose Sabathia is having a better season than Kuroda, I'm just blinded by the fact that CC hasn't been nearly as consistent as we're used to seeing.

But I still disagree about Zimmermann. He's having the best season of any Nat's pitcher. Zimm's 4.4 WAR compared to Strasburg's 3.1 is overwhelming.
FanGraphs WAR has the following for each player:

Strasburg - 4.0
Gonzalez - 4.1
Zimmermann - 3.3

Gio aside, in Strasburg, you're trading 1 BB/9 deficit for an additional nearly 5 K/9. Strasburg has the ability to dominate a game in a way Zimmermann can't even dream of.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby Element » Fri Aug 17, 2012 2:54 pm

I am in agreement that Cueto's Win total is going to earn him a lot of votes. For me though, it comes down to Kershaw, Cain, MadBum, Gio & Dickey. If Gio or Cueto earn 5 more wins and get to 20 they are going to steal a lot of votes away from a far superior starter. My gut says that it's going to go to MadBum unless Dickey finishes real strong. Kershaw and/or Cainwould need to basically win out or do some really special things from here on out since they only have 11 wins.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Aug 17, 2012 3:00 pm

Kyle Lohse.

If his team could hit a beachball he would be way up there in wins. Guy has 20 QS and doesn't walk anybody.
Can't believe he's not even on a top 5 list.
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Re: NL Cy Young - Who will it be?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:18 pm

I'd say Kershaw or Dickey, or maybe Cueto/Gio depending how they finish the season. Zimmermann doesn't have enough innings to be worthy of it, and I agree with the sentiment that he's the beneficiary of good variance, which is not a skill that should be rewarded.

Strasburg is clearly the best pitcher in baseball but again, the lack of innings takes him out of contention. Obviously the same is true for relief pitchers like Chapman and Kimbrel.
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