Maris09 wrote:I honestly can’t believe there are so many people backing up Melky’s steroid shortened great season as simply a product of good luck.
.305/.350/.470 is approximately what his line would be if his BABIP was normalized. I believe that the difference between that line and the line he put up (.346/.390/.516) is almost entirely a product of luck. That .820 OPS is still pretty good and for all I know steroids could have played a part in it. However, the difference between the two lines is 100% BABIP related, and there is absolutely no evidence that steroids had any role in that. That does not preclude the possibility that steroids played a role in him getting to that initial .820 OPS (and it would be hard to look at unless we knew exactly when he started using), it just means that luck played a very large and measurable role in his season whereas it's harder to distinguish the role steroids may or may not have had in that .820 OPS.