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SP Matchup Projections

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SP Matchup Projections

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:27 am

So this sort of stemmed from my post in today's CV Thread, but I'll reiterate that at this point in the year, when H2H Playoffs are either beginning or looming, I start to not just look at a guy's next start as a potential spot, but at his next several, or even through the remainder of the year. Grabbing a guy a day or several days before a good start can work, but having a guy on your team with a nice setup going forward against a bunch of D+ offenses is much more favorable, saving moves if you're in a league with limitations (my H2H League limits to 3 per week), or what have you. Now, I'm not talking about David Price's schedule, or another Ace, but guys who are either sitting in FA, or may be dropped by another team after their first crappy start, when they still have favorable matchups ahead on their docket. This can be an exercise in futility, since one skipped start, or being pushed back even a single day can sway the matchups either favorably or unfavorably, so these projections are assuming the teams stick with a 5-man rotation and no skips. I'm sure I'll be updating them as we move forward anyway, but here's how things look in a perfect world right now for some guys I'm looking at, some who are available, and others who I think could potentially become available. This isn't just a list of opponents for the rest of the year, but who the pitcher looks to face (it's brutal seeing a guy miss a series @SD, or HOU as I project these...)

Joe Kelly - PIT, @CIN, @WSH, NYM, @SD, @LAD, @CHC, @HOU -- he's been a QS machine and despite a lot of Road contests, there's some real bad offenses there.

Scott Feldman - BAL, MIN, @CLE, @KC, CLE, SEA, @SEA, OAK -- he potentially misses both series vs the Angels, and look at all those cupcakes.

Jeff Karstens - @STL, MIL, @MIL, HOU, @CIN, @CHC, @HOU, @NYM -- four of those final five starts look really enticing, despite them all being Road contests, where Karstens has been pretty brutal this year.

Bud Norris - @STL, SF, CIN, @CIN, PHI, @STL, STL -- bleh, no thanks. He misses the Mets and the Cubs, at the very least, so here's one I'm hoping has a little push back or something to change what potentially lies ahead.

Francisco Liriano - @TOR, NYY, @BAL, @DET, KC, DET, @KC, @LAA, TB -- he looks to miss CLE and MIN, which is really unfortunate. That's not the worst possible remaining schedule, but there's a lot of ones there where you definitely won't feel comfortable starting Liriano. Need to hope for some shift, or push back of Sale that changes this and hopefully gets Liriano in line to face the Indians and Twins. Otherwise, he's a guy I'm not dying to hang onto.

Luis Mendoza - CHW, @TB, DET, MIN, @CHW, @MIN, CHW, @DET, @CLE -- the final six weeks of the season, because of scheduling, leads to a lot of pitchers facing the same team two or three times, which can be brutal for their ratios, facing the same offense that many times. The fact that Mendoza looks to face the White Sox three times over the rest of the season, and the Tigers twice, means he's probably, at best, a spot starter against the Twins and Tribe, not that anybody was really looking at him as much more to begin with.

Tommy Milone - CLE, MIN, @CLE, BOS, @SEA, @LAA, @DET, @TEX, SEA -- Now, the return of Brett Anderson could really throw a wrench into the A's projected rotation for the next six weeks (same for Tim Stauffer in SD), so this is one that looks less 'reliable', if any of them can really be called that, than the others. It could be wildly different. Still, it's worth looking at, and seeing that after his next three projected go arounds, he's got brutal matchups sandwiched between two meetings with Seattle. The question you need to be asking yourself here is, how valuable is Milone's roster spot on your team if you may potentially use him twice over the final four or five weeks of the season?

Mike Leake - he pitches NYM and R.A. Dickey today, but with the Reds playing a doubleheader with the Cubs on the 18th, does Leake get the Cubs on the 19th on short rest, or is he pushed to the following day and @PHI? Need to wait and see how that is played out before doing anything more with the Reds or Cubs pitchers.

Zach McAllister - @OAK, @SEA, OAK, TEX, @MIN, @TEX, MIN, @CHW, KC -- coming off a dominant performance against the Red Sox, McAllister could potentially have a great schedule over the remainder of the year, riddled with Oakland, Seattle, and Minnesota. He'll need to be sat both times against the Rangers, but he looks to be startable in every other matchup he could have through the end of September.
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Re: SP Matchup Projections

Postby Izenhart » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:35 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Joe Kelly - PIT, @CIN, @WSH, NYM, @SD, @LAD, @CHC, @HOU -- he's been a QS machine and despite a lot of Road contests, there's some real bad offenses there.

Zach McAllister - @OAK, @SEA, OAK, TEX, @MIN, @TEX, MIN, @CHW, KC -- coming off a dominant performance against the Red Sox, McAllister could potentially have a great schedule over the remainder of the year, riddled with Oakland, Seattle, and Minnesota. He'll need to be sat both times against the Rangers, but he looks to be startable in every other matchup he could have through the end of September.


Two guys I have my eye on right there.

Of course don't over-analyze and end up dropping someone you shouldn't for them. They are simply there if you have a spot and a need. I dropped Koruda last week after seeing his immediate schedule and he goes and throws a 2-hit SHO vs TEX.
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Re: SP Matchup Projections

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:11 pm

Jaime Garcia is back and Joe Kelly is headed to the bullpen.
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Re: SP Matchup Projections

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:12 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:Jaime Garcia is back and Joe Kelly is headed to the bullpen.
If he slots right in for Kelly on Kelly's day to pitch, he could have a real easy road of offenses to face the rest of the way.
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Re: SP Matchup Projections

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:17 pm

Looks that way. Kelly pitched yesterday which would have put him in line to pitch Sunday which is when Garcia is scheduled to come back.
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