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Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby RyeWhiskey » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:51 pm

J35J wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:I offered a 5x5 O/U... I have no interest in this thing in the first place, take it or leave it.

Skin Blues wrote:how about .290 AVG, 25 HR, 105 R, 70 RBI and 40 SB? I'll take the overs.


Avg and HR are really the only things that I'm interested in. But just for fun I'll go ahead and take the under on it all.


Tip of the hat to you sir. ;-D
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:03 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Do we not think that given an entire off-season for teams to plan on how to pitch him, etc. that he's really incapable of performing lower than his worst month in what has a legitimate chance of being his best season? Don't get me wrong, dude could continue blowing the doors off, certainly. But this notion that he's above the possibility of severely, severely dropping off next season is simply puzzling to me.


Yes, there is certainly a possibility that Trout can perform worse in 2013 than he has in any month of 2012. But what are the odds that this happens for a full season? Even if Trout was lucky in the AVG and power department, how on earth can you argue that he falls off a cliff (I'm assuming a severe, severe drop means he becomes almost irrelevant)?

His 2011 numbers? Please. After his 2012 campaign I don't see how you can weigh his 2011 stats that much. Yes, teams will adjust and his luck will regress. But when has any rookie posted this type of season? Never? Ryan Braun came close. He regressed some in his 2nd year but he still ended as a top player.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:05 pm

J35J wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:I offered a 5x5 O/U... I have no interest in this thing in the first place, take it or leave it.

Skin Blues wrote:how about .290 AVG, 25 HR, 105 R, 70 RBI and 40 SB? I'll take the overs.


Avg and HR are really the only things that I'm interested in. But just for fun I'll go ahead and take the under on it all.


Looks like I won't be using someone's spreadsheet this year :-D

How can you take the under on the runs and SB? Really?
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:13 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote:
J35J wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:I offered a 5x5 O/U... I have no interest in this thing in the first place, take it or leave it.



Avg and HR are really the only things that I'm interested in. But just for fun I'll go ahead and take the under on it all.


Looks like I won't be using someone's spreadsheet this year :-D

How can you take the under on the runs and SB? Really?
He wasn't given a choice. The proposal was whichever hits the majority wins. The two I'd be confident about are HR and AVG, with the potential for RBI as well. In my mind there's a pretty decent shot he undershoots at least 3 of those 5 figures that were posted.

also, Re: your other post...
Urban Cohorts wrote:Even if Trout was lucky in the AVG and power department, how on earth can you argue that he falls off a cliff (I'm assuming a severe, severe drop means he becomes almost irrelevant)?
I don't think this at all. I do think, though, that he could quite easily put up Round 5 or later value, more likely I would speculate at about Round 3. I don't see him being a Top 5 player next season. As I said previously, I'd expect something close to Jacoby Ellsbury's 2009, minus 20 SB and plus 10 HR. Nobody will be disappointed with that if they get him in Round 2 or 3, but you'd probably not be thrilled if you passed on a typical Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Braun season, or really a typical Albert Pujols season. I'm very interested to see where his fantasy production settles if he does, as I imagine, bat .290 next season.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:39 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:Even if Trout was lucky in the AVG and power department, how on earth can you argue that he falls off a cliff (I'm assuming a severe, severe drop means he becomes almost irrelevant)?
I don't think this at all. I do think, though, that he could quite easily put up Round 5 or later value, more likely I would speculate at about Round 3. I don't see him being a Top 5 player next season. As I said previously, I'd expect something close to Jacoby Ellsbury's 2009, minus 20 SB and plus 10 HR. Nobody will be disappointed with that if they get him in Round 2 or 3, but you'd probably not be thrilled if you passed on a typical Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Braun season, or really a typical Albert Pujols season. I'm very interested to see where his fantasy production settles if he does, as I imagine, bat .290 next season.


I think .290 is pretty far at the bottom of his range. With his speed, his BABIP might not even be unsustainable given that his xBABIP was .366. I don't think I'd expect him maintain a 22% HR/FB, but even if you cut that in half and turn every one of those 15 less homeruns into an out he'd still hit around .300. It would probably take a significant dropoff in power, increase in striking out, and loss of some BABIP for him to hit .290, it's not out of the realm of possibility but given how talented he is I definitely wouldn't expect it.

Something like .310 seems pretty reasonable to me.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby kab21 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:23 pm

I expect Trout to have a great season next year but young players regardless of how good they are or how good they looked in their first season struggle all the time. JUp posted mediocre years after breakouts in '09 and '11. Hosmer was awful this year after a very good rookie year. Heyward was awful in his sophomore season. None of these players were as awesome as Trout was this year but it wouldn't be shocking if he put up a .275, 15/30 season. I expect more though.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:32 pm

kab21 wrote:I expect Trout to have a great season next year but young players regardless of how good they are or how good they looked in their first season struggle all the time. JUp posted mediocre years after breakouts in '09 and '11. Hosmer was awful this year after a very good rookie year. Heyward was awful in his sophomore season. None of these players were as awesome as Trout was this year but it wouldn't be shocking if he put up a .275, 15/30 season. I expect more though.


It wouldn't be shocking but trout is on a whole different level than those guys. It's the risk you take with unknown/young players, but Trout's immense amount of skill minimizes that risk imo. He could significantly regress and still be worth a first round pick.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby benb18a » Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:28 am

Buster Posey. Positional scarcity.
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:36 am

benb18a wrote:Buster Posey. Positional scarcity.


Probably a bit of a reach, he's the type of player who's fantasy value doesn't quite match up with his real life value. Plus he carries more risk than guys like Braun and Cabrera. Mid to late first round is probably more reasonable.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Oct 05, 2012 1:20 am

As good as he was this year, he barely cracked the top 20 in fantasy value. In leagues that only use one catcher the scarcity thing is pretty much a non-issue. In 2C leagues, yeah, it bumps him up substantially. Still not near the level of the first-rounders, though.
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