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Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:11 am

Why are people pretending that 2011 didn't happen for Trout, and that he couldn't struggle similarly next season? Do we not think that given an entire off-season for teams to plan on how to pitch him, etc. that he's really incapable of performing lower than his worst month in what has a legitimate chance of being his best season? Don't get me wrong, dude could continue blowing the doors off, certainly. But this notion that he's above the possibility of severely, severely dropping off next season is simply puzzling to me. Despite the likelihood of an elevated BABIP, .383 is absurd. Even if it drops to .350, which is still going to be very high, you're talking about a pretty considerable hit across the board, not just to his AVG. I imagine he's going to bat closer to .280 than .300 next season, and that's not even taking into account that people seem to be thinking that .320 should be the expectation. I'd be drafting him wherever you were drafting Jacoby Ellsbury in 2010, following his 2009 season, because that, plus 10 HR, and minus 15 SB is where I imagine Trout will settle into. Yes, the 10 HR are considerable, but honestly I'm not even convinced he gets them quite yet, and I don't see him approaching 70 SB or near it.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby J35J » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:42 am

bigh0rt wrote:Why are people pretending that 2011 didn't happen for Trout, and that he couldn't struggle similarly next season? Do we not think that given an entire off-season for teams to plan on how to pitch him, etc. that he's really incapable of performing lower than his worst month in what has a legitimate chance of being his best season? Don't get me wrong, dude could continue blowing the doors off, certainly. But this notion that he's above the possibility of severely, severely dropping off next season is simply puzzling to me. Despite the likelihood of an elevated BABIP, .383 is absurd. Even if it drops to .350, which is still going to be very high, you're talking about a pretty considerable hit across the board, not just to his AVG. I imagine he's going to bat closer to .280 than .300 next season, and that's not even taking into account that people seem to be thinking that .320 should be the expectation. I'd be drafting him wherever you were drafting Jacoby Ellsbury in 2010, following his 2009 season, because that, plus 10 HR, and minus 15 SB is where I imagine Trout will settle into. Yes, the 10 HR are considerable, but honestly I'm not even convinced he gets them quite yet, and I don't see him approaching 70 SB or near it.


Thank you.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:55 am

Anybody with half a brain can look at Trout's 2011 and 2012 and come to a conclusion about why he might have stumbled in his age-19, cup-of-coffee stint in 2011. I don't know if this is just a devil's advocate situation, or what else explains this thought process. The results will speak for themselves though. In all likelihood he will be the #1 fantasy player again next season, and it could be by an even wider margin.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:03 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Anybody with half a brain can look at Trout's 2011 and 2012 and come to a conclusion about why he might have stumbled in his age-19, cup-of-coffee stint in 2011. I don't know if this is just a devil's advocate situation, or what else explains this thought process. The results will speak for themselves though. In all likelihood he will be the #1 fantasy player again next season, and it could be by an even wider margin.
In all likelihood, no, he will not be. It's arguable that he even was this year (I'll take both Braun and Cabrera's numbers over him, especially considering their averages weighed towards your Roto score for an additional 40 - 60 AB -- on a per game basis, he may have been the best, but not overall). This is the crux of the entire reasoning behind my post. It's an incorrect pre-disposition to take, and people are taking it way too easily and without consideration.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:51 pm

Even missing most of April, Trout was indisputably more valuable than either Braun or Cabrera this year in 5x5 leagues. That's not a debate. And that's not even factoring in the stats from the replacement player you could have used for the 3 weeks he was in the minors. Whether he can do it again next year is not a certainty, obviously.

And I kid you not, I just went to check the player rater to see how much of a gap there was with the final stats (a considerable one, btw), and the headline on the front page was "There's no debate here: Angels rookie Mike Trout is the No. 1 player in fantasy for 2012". Not that ESPN headlines are gospel, but it was a pretty funny coincidence, and also happens to be true. The player rater they use is actually spot on in terms of evaluating fantasy value. Much better than yahoo, and it adjusts to your league settings, I believe.

Anyway, why not make it interesting? Set some reasonable 5x5 O/U for Trout and most correct wins. I have sigs and avatars disabled so I couldn't care less about the outcome in that sense, but how about .290 AVG, 25 HR, 105 R, 70 RBI and 40 SB? I'll take the overs.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:14 pm

Rough projection by regressing his BABIP closer to his xBABIP (.366), his HR/FB down (not sure he can sustain a 21% HR/FB) and extrapolating his plate appearances out to a full season (735):

.310-140-28-90-54

I also lowered the run and RBI totals to make up for some regression in AVG and OBP. That's based almost entirely on the skillset he showed this year with his HR/FB regressed. You can put him down for more regression if you want and of course there's risk with a player that young, but he has the skills to crush every other player in fantasy for the next 10 years.

If I was going to set a line for next year it'd probably be around:

.300-120-25-80-50

With potential for better and also some potential for disaster (though I don't think that's very likely).

It might sound crazy but I honestly think I would consider him if I drew the #1 overall pick and would take him for sure #3. Braun and MCab are obviously safer choices but other than them there's not really anyone else I trust enough to consider over that kind of talent.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby J35J » Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:44 pm

J35J wrote:I'll take the under on .290avg and 25hr next year.....first sig bet of 2013 season? :-B
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:26 pm

I offered a 5x5 O/U... I have no interest in this thing in the first place, take it or leave it.

Skin Blues wrote:how about .290 AVG, 25 HR, 105 R, 70 RBI and 40 SB? I'll take the overs.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby RyeWhiskey » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:29 pm

I'll go under on .300 and under on 25 HRs, and hell, under on 70 RBIs even though I think that number's about right. But he'll steal around 50 and score 100+ pretty easily IMO. No real reason to argue there.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby J35J » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:38 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I offered a 5x5 O/U... I have no interest in this thing in the first place, take it or leave it.

Skin Blues wrote:how about .290 AVG, 25 HR, 105 R, 70 RBI and 40 SB? I'll take the overs.


Avg and HR are really the only things that I'm interested in. But just for fun I'll go ahead and take the under on it all.
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