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Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:22 am

Here is Matt Kemp's slash line from the final 5 months of the season (when he started dealing with injuries): 275/330/450 with 11 HR and 7 SBs.

His insane April has masked his god awful May/June/July/August/September/October. His shoulder and hamstring issues have made him a shell of his former self. Maybe they'll both fully heal in the off season, or maybe he'll spend more time on the DL, have diminished power, and stop stealing bases. He probably wouldn't even be in my top 25.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Ender » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:28 am

Skin Blues wrote:Here is Matt Kemp's slash line from the final 5 months of the season (when he started dealing with injuries): 275/330/450 with 11 HR and 7 SBs.

His insane April has masked his god awful May/June/July/August/September/October. His shoulder and hamstring issues have made him a shell of his former self. Maybe they'll both fully heal in the off season, or maybe he'll spend more time on the DL, have diminished power, and stop stealing bases. He probably wouldn't even be in my top 25.


And that is fine, I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round either because I don't like risky types. But his upside at least warrants consideration over Braun who is by far without a doubt not even close or arguably the best safe option in baseball as your #1. That is really my big problem with the Cabrera #1 talk, he is and has been inferiour to Braun for years while moving out of his prime while Braun is just moving into his. Unless you are in some league that really devalues OF there just is no good reason to take MCab over Braun. You can make arguments for high upside high risk guys (arguments I don't agree with) but there just hasn't been a good argument in this entire thread for MCab over Braun.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:35 am

A $2 lottery ticket has more potential than a duffel stuffed with a million dollars. Miguel Cabrera is the duffel bag, and Matt Kemp is the lottery ticket. Nobody in their right mind would rather have the lottery ticket.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby dannahann » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:27 am

Ender wrote:And that is fine, I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round either because I don't like risky types. But his upside at least warrants consideration over Braun who is by far without a doubt not even close or arguably the best safe option in baseball as your #1. That is really my big problem with the Cabrera #1 talk, he is and has been inferiour to Braun for years while moving out of his prime while Braun is just moving into his. Unless you are in some league that really devalues OF there just is no good reason to take MCab over Braun. You can make arguments for high upside high risk guys (arguments I don't agree with) but there just hasn't been a good argument in this entire thread for MCab over Braun.

What am I missing here? How exactly does being 7 whole months older mean Miggy is somehow moving out of his prime while Braun is just moving into his? I guess Miggy seems older because he was 20 when he got to the bigs while Braun was 23.
I get that Braun steals more bags and arguably had a better 2011 (Braun's MVP season). But in vitually all other offensive aspects, if one is and has been inferior, as you suggest, it would probably be Braun. Cabrera has been a full timer since 2004 but Braun has only been so since 2008 so it's really only fair to Braun to compare the last 5 seasons, (2008-2012). In those 5 seasons Cabrera has played more games 4 times, infact he played 160+ 4 times in those 5. He had more hits than Braun in 3 of those seasons, including Braun's MVP year. He also scored more runs in 3 of those years, again including Braun's MVP year. He drove in more runs in 3 of the 5 also. He out homered Braun in 3 of 4 (they tied in 2008), the MVP campaign being the only time Braun hit more. Cabrera posted a higher batting average and OB% in all 5 seasons and has out slugged Braun twice. Braun did beat Cabrera by 0.001 in OPS in 2008, but Miggy topped him in the other 4 years. Braun struck out more than Cabrera in every season while Cabrera has walked more than Braun in all 5 seasons. Both are great choices and I guess if you overvalue steals that much go with Braun. I'd love to get either myself.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Ender » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:49 am

What am I missing here? How exactly does being 7 whole months older mean Miggy is somehow moving out of his prime while Braun is just moving into his? I guess Miggy seems older because he was 20 when he got to the bigs while Braun was 23.


Because the aging curve of a stocky infielder is very different than an athletic OF and because it has been shown that it isn't so much an aging curve as an experience curve in the first place. A player who reaches the league at age 20 will peak at a younger age and have a longer gentler decline than a player who enters it at 23. As much as I was against Cabrera moving to 3B I think it really helped him this year, he actually got in shape before the season and from what I've read at least he stopped pounding the booze as hard. That could lead to a long term jump in his stats and this could be a new level but I'm not willing to bank on 40+ HR every year just yet. Braun seems to be just aging into his prime stats more likely.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:41 am

Mike Trout with Miggy as a close 2nd (mainly due to 3B eligibility). Even if Trout regresses some, you're still looking at approx. a 100-25-80-45-.300 type of player. The HR + extreme SB total wins it for me. And keep in mind that he gets a full season of ABs next year, so his numbers could actually improve (especially if Pujols rebounds for a full season).
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby J35J » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:58 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:Mike Trout with Miggy as a close 2nd (mainly due to 3B eligibility). Even if Trout regresses some, you're still looking at approx. a 100-25-80-45-.300 type of player. The HR + extreme SB total wins it for me. And keep in mind that he gets a full season of ABs next year, so his numbers could actually improve (especially if Pujols rebounds for a full season).


...but but...what happens if he hits .270 with 17hr and 60rbi...I'll let you keep the 100runs and 45sb as I think those are really the only sure bet if he plays a full season at leadoff.

...or worse yet, what if he hits .250 with 14hr and 50rbi...gets bumped to the 8th or 9 hole for a while and gets 80-90 runs and 35sb
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:08 am

J35J wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:Mike Trout with Miggy as a close 2nd (mainly due to 3B eligibility). Even if Trout regresses some, you're still looking at approx. a 100-25-80-45-.300 type of player. The HR + extreme SB total wins it for me. And keep in mind that he gets a full season of ABs next year, so his numbers could actually improve (especially if Pujols rebounds for a full season).


...but but...what happens if he hits .270 with 17hr and 60rbi...I'll let you keep the 100runs and 45sb as I think those are really the only sure bet if he plays a full season at leadoff.

...or worse yet, what if he hits .250 with 14hr and 50rbi...gets bumped to the 8th or 9 hole for a while and gets 80-90 runs and 35sb


If his power numbers get cut in half and his AVG drops more than 40 points, then yes he would end up being a 2nd rounder or something of the like. With a full season of AB and a good lineup behind him, I'd say 100 runs + 45 SB would be the bare minimum. If anything, I'm looking for at least 120 Runs and 50+ SB (full season of ABs + help from a good Pujols for the runs and his SB should remain on par with the filthy success rate he has). So 120R + 50+ SB with an above average AVG to go along with some decent power numbers. Can't beat that IMO.

I essentially see him as having another 2012 or something similar to Ellsbury's 2011. Though Trout's risk is inexperience whereas Ellsbury has health issues.

I don't see your last scenario happening. Trout hitting .250 with complete loss of power? Really?
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:36 am

What if Braun or Miggy get injured? What if Braun gets suspended for PEDs? What if Miggy goes to jail for a DUI? What if the sun fizzles out? A lot of "what ifs", but none of them are likely to actually happen.

Trout's worst month extrapolated over a full season is: .289 - 124 - 27 - 49 - 38. That's not far off what Braun put up this year. And all he has to do is repeat the worst month from his rookie season to achieve it. His power gets overlooked because he's seen as a speedster, but he was 4th in the majors in SLG% and hit 30 HR despite spending the first 3 weeks in the minors. It's not just BA and R that you can count on. At this point I think his upside of being worth twice as much as anybody else, combined with how unlikely I find it that he'll regress below first round value, is forcing me to consider him at #1. I can't see a rational argument against it. Certainly there are rational arguments to take Miggy or Braun, as well. It'll be fun to see how crazy the bids go in auction leagues. Way out of my price range, I imagine.
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Re: Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

Postby J35J » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:47 am

I'll take the under on .290avg and 25hr next year.....first sig bet of 2013 season? :-B
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