CubsFan4Life23 wrote:Alrighty...I read about 10 pages of this debate and feel the need to chime in on it...
Trout will be a force...A risky one for the 1st round though...I think a key point possibly not made yet on this subject is how pitchers will adjust to how they pitch Trout. He obviously has an upperhand this season, but I am sure that he has not seen pitchers more than twice this year (AL West mainly)...The more exposed he gets, the better the chance his out of this world numbers come back to Earth. I think in the lineup he has surrounding him...100 runs a year is almost a given, but his Avg, HR totals will fall back down, probably closer to his minor league numbers...I think when all is said and done you take the sure fire star over Trout...
Few notations: versus elite pitching Trout vs. Sale (0-3, K) Trout vs. Cain (1-2, BB, 3SB) Trout vs. Felix (3-7, 2K, 1HR, 5RBI) Trout vs. Price (0-2, BB, 2K) Trout vs. Moore (1-6, HR, 1K) - added him, b/c of his potential
5 for 20 with only 2 HR's and 7K's...is that first round material?
It's an interesting notion, but I have three words for you: Small, Sample, and Size.
jorgesca wrote: but I don't think he will consistently get better just because he will age, I think we are seeing a closer performance to his ceiling rather than his mean.
I sure as hell hope this is his ceiling and not just his mean...if this is just his, ho hum, average type of year then he is going to be the greatest to ever play. How awesome is it to think the guys greatest season comes in his rookie year at 21 years old...very likely possible in this case.
another thing to look at, is that Trout is still developing, hes not scrawny like Ellsbury, I think the power is legit. Maybe we come back to this in a few years and I am wrong, but I think Trout will be a HOF player for his entire career.
The biggest thing I wonder with Trout is how much MORE can you expect? The guy is on pace for a 40-60 season, with 150 Runs, 120 RBI, and a .340 avg (in 162 games that is).
What is his PEAK supposed to be then??? 50-70?! .400 avg? I have a hard time wrapping my mind around him getting better just because the season he is putting together at the age of 20 is historic in itself already, regardless if he is a rookie/20 year old or not.
My head hurts just thinking of Trout...
"Chuck Norris has been known to throw a baseball 100 mph. I've been known to throw Chuck Norris 100 mph." - Brian Wilson
Thsi is 2011 Matt Kemp with 40 extra runs scored and 23 extra steals. I know, I know, we've all seen the prorated stats. But the point is that he doesn't have to get better to be worth an early first round pick. In fact he could be significantly worse next year and still be worth the first overall pick. You can't say that about anybody else.
J35J wrote:How awesome is it to think the guys greatest season comes in his rookie year at 21 years old...very likely possible in this case.
For example, Angel Berroa. Though he was 25, got 128 at bats before his ROY award in 2003, and hardly has the pedigree, he sorta fits the big boom scenario. I just saw the KC logo in your avatar and your post. Couldn't resist. Trout likely isn't going the way of Berroa.
Skin Blues wrote:Thsi is 2011 Matt Kemp with 40 extra runs scored and 23 extra steals. I know, I know, we've all seen the prorated stats. But the point is that he doesn't have to get better to be worth an early first round pick. In fact he could be significantly worse next year and still be worth the first overall pick. You can't say that about anybody else.
This. He's a 5 category guy who could regress significantly in every category and still easily produce first round numbers plus he's got potential to blow every other player out of the water in terms of production. I think that potential easily outweighs the risk of a complete collapse next year. First rounders fail at a decent enough rate that he's not all that much more risky than anyone else not named braun or cabrera.
CubsFan4Life23 wrote:Alrighty...I read about 10 pages of this debate and feel the need to chime in on it...
Trout will be a force...A risky one for the 1st round though...I think a key point possibly not made yet on this subject is how pitchers will adjust to how they pitch Trout. He obviously has an upperhand this season, but I am sure that he has not seen pitchers more than twice this year (AL West mainly)...The more exposed he gets, the better the chance his out of this world numbers come back to Earth. I think in the lineup he has surrounding him...100 runs a year is almost a given, but his Avg, HR totals will fall back down, probably closer to his minor league numbers...I think when all is said and done you take the sure fire star over Trout...
Few notations: versus elite pitching Trout vs. Sale (0-3, K) Trout vs. Cain (1-2, BB, 3SB) Trout vs. Felix (3-7, 2K, 1HR, 5RBI) Trout vs. Price (0-2, BB, 2K) Trout vs. Moore (1-6, HR, 1K) - added him, b/c of his potential
5 for 20 with only 2 HR's and 7K's...is that first round material?
It's an interesting notion, but I have three words for you: Small, Sample, and Size.
I think the moral of the thread is this: Bryce Harper is better this year than mike trout was last year. Conversely, Bryce Harper is guaranteed to hit at least .330 with 60 hr next year. Amirite?
bigh0rt wrote: His 1.6 WAR puts him 18th among NL OF, and his 3.3 Fld rating puts him 8th among NL OF defensively this season.
Does your fantasy league count defensive stats? No? Didn't think so.
WAR is a useful indicator for some guys in fantasy, but not ones that get a large contribution of their WAR from fielding. And Fld has no place in fantasy baseball.
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by lane_anasazi2 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 2:10 pm 
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