Who is YOUR number 1 overall pick for 2013?

[bigh0rt]

tulo has to have at least as much risk as trout by now right?

It's tough to balance injury risk with severe regression risk. Some people will say risk is risk, but I don't weigh them equally. Specifically with Tulo, he had a groin injury that I wouldn't expect to hamper any of his productivity next season, nor do I have reason to believe would continue to be a problem next season after having surgery this year. I'd feel more comfortable taking Tulo ahead of, say, Josh Hamilton, though. That early in a draft, for me, your pick is all about comfort with heavy production. Who do I feel most confident that I can get elite production out of? Tulo gets his injury knock otherwise he'd be a Top 5 or so pick as he's been considered for a season or two. I still think he's, at worst, a second round pick, if he's healthy in March.

[Izenhart]

tulo has to have at least as much risk as trout by now right?

It's tough to balance injury risk with severe regression risk. Some people will say risk is risk, but I don't weigh them equally. Specifically with Tulo, he had a groin injury that I wouldn't expect to hamper any of his productivity next season, nor do I have reason to believe would continue to be a problem next season after having surgery this year. I'd feel more comfortable taking Tulo ahead of, say, Josh Hamilton, though. That early in a draft, for me, your pick is all about comfort with heavy production. Who do I feel most confident that I can get elite production out of? Tulo gets his injury knock otherwise he'd be a Top 5 or so pick as he's been considered for a season or two. I still think he's, at worst, a second round pick, if he's healthy in March.

I honestly think even when healthy and productive Tulo is wildly overrated and shouldnt be in the top 10, ever.

[bigh0rt]

tulo has to have at least as much risk as trout by now right?

It's tough to balance injury risk with severe regression risk. Some people will say risk is risk, but I don't weigh them equally. Specifically with Tulo, he had a groin injury that I wouldn't expect to hamper any of his productivity next season, nor do I have reason to believe would continue to be a problem next season after having surgery this year. I'd feel more comfortable taking Tulo ahead of, say, Josh Hamilton, though. That early in a draft, for me, your pick is all about comfort with heavy production. Who do I feel most confident that I can get elite production out of? Tulo gets his injury knock otherwise he'd be a Top 5 or so pick as he's been considered for a season or two. I still think he's, at worst, a second round pick, if he's healthy in March.

I honestly think even when healthy and productive Tulo is wildly overrated and shouldnt be in the top 10, ever.

Pretty tough to find a SS capable of 30/20, or even 30/10 which is more of a reasonable expectation for Tulo, to pair with a .300 AVG, 100 RBI, and 90 R. It's probably close to 10 more HR than any other SS will hit in the entire league, more RBI, without sacrificing and taking a hit in R or AVG. The benefits of what he gives you at his position with respect to his peers there is tremendous; even the other SS ranked in the Top 5, nevermind those below that mark.

[NikkiSixx]

tulo has to have at least as much risk as trout by now right?

It's tough to balance injury risk with severe regression risk. Some people will say risk is risk, but I don't weigh them equally. Specifically with Tulo, he had a groin injury that I wouldn't expect to hamper any of his productivity next season, nor do I have reason to believe would continue to be a problem next season after having surgery this year. I'd feel more comfortable taking Tulo ahead of, say, Josh Hamilton, though. That early in a draft, for me, your pick is all about comfort with heavy production. Who do I feel most confident that I can get elite production out of? Tulo gets his injury knock otherwise he'd be a Top 5 or so pick as he's been considered for a season or two. I still think he's, at worst, a second round pick, if he's healthy in March.

I honestly think even when healthy and productive Tulo is wildly overrated and shouldnt be in the top 10, ever.

If Tulo was an outfielder I would agree with you.

[Izenhart]

It's tough to balance injury risk with severe regression risk. Some people will say risk is risk, but I don't weigh them equally. Specifically with Tulo, he had a groin injury that I wouldn't expect to hamper any of his productivity next season, nor do I have reason to believe would continue to be a problem next season after having surgery this year. I'd feel more comfortable taking Tulo ahead of, say, Josh Hamilton, though. That early in a draft, for me, your pick is all about comfort with heavy production. Who do I feel most confident that I can get elite production out of? Tulo gets his injury knock otherwise he'd be a Top 5 or so pick as he's been considered for a season or two. I still think he's, at worst, a second round pick, if he's healthy in March.

I honestly think even when healthy and productive Tulo is wildly overrated and shouldnt be in the top 10, ever.

Pretty tough to find a SS capable of 30/20, or even 30/10 which is more of a reasonable expectation for Tulo, to pair with a .300 AVG, 100 RBI, and 90 R. It's probably close to 10 more HR than any other SS will hit in the entire league, more RBI, without sacrificing and taking a hit in R or AVG. The benefits of what he gives you at his position with respect to his peers there is tremendous; even the other SS ranked in the Top 5, nevermind those below that mark.

I understand his 'ceiling' when 'healthy' is about .310-90-35-110-20 which of course would be the jackpot if you hit it. I just find the risk to be too high to warrant a 1st round pick, kind of the way people thought of Hamilton before this season.

I personally think it's wise to eliminate some players from your draft pool who carry too much risk for where their ADP is. Sure, you can draft an all risk team and wind up crushing the league if they all pan out. I took Braun in round 5 earlier this season when he was thought to be suspended and got very lucky, this was assuming he was going to miss 50 games. If I assume Tulo is going to miss 50 games next year due to injury I'm probably drafting him where I took Braun. Both are top players at their position that put up 1st round numbers when healthy, but i can't see myself taking Tulo any higher than round 3.

Tulo's games played of the past 6 seasons are 155, 101, 151, 122, 143, 47. He seems to have one very good year followed by a hurt year, Let's project him to a modest 145 games for 2013. The brilliance he flashed two Septembers ago when he hit 14 home runs in 15 games still just gave him 27 home runs for the season. I don't see him as a 40 home run threat, and expect 25-30 in 145 games, and his 8 home runs in 47 games this season put him in line with that. He has stolen more than 11 bases only once, with a high of 20, which was three years ago, so expecting more than 10 is pushing it. Colorado's lineup isn't as solid as it once was, so his counting stats probably won't be more than just very solid.

Position scarcity is another argument which I'm not going to get much into. stats are stats and it doesn't matter where they come from. If Tulo was putting up Braun numbers then yes he should go ahead of Braun due to position, but just because he is clearly the best option when healthy doesn't make him a 1st, or even an automatic 2nd round pick.

[bigh0rt]

If I assume Tulo is going to miss 50 games next year due to injury

Why would you assume that? Prior to his groin injury that required surgery this season, he hasn't missed that many games since 2008. 143 last year, 122 the year prior, 151 in '09, 155 in '07. In '08, he missed two weeks cause he cut his hand slamming his bat in the clubhouse. In 2012 he was HBP on the wrist. Aside from his quad injury and this groin, it's not like he's Mr. Glass. I don't view him in the same way I do Josh Hamilton.

sition scarcity is another argument which I'm not going to get much into. stats are stats and it doesn't matter where they come from.

You're welcome to choose to think that, but getting the same production out of your SS as a 1B is largely different on the high end. The gap between Tulo and his peers, and a high-end 1B and theirs is monumentally different. Ignoring it doesn't make it not true.

[Izenhart]

If I assume Tulo is going to miss 50 games next year due to injury

Why would you assume that? Prior to his groin injury that required surgery this season, he hasn't missed that many games since 2008. 143 last year, 122 the year prior, 151 in '09, 155 in '07. In '08, he missed two weeks cause he cut his hand slamming his bat in the clubhouse. In 2012 he was HBP on the wrist. Aside from his quad injury and this groin, it's not like he's Mr. Glass. I don't view him in the same way I do Josh Hamilton.

sition scarcity is another argument which I'm not going to get much into. stats are stats and it doesn't matter where they come from.

You're welcome to choose to think that, but getting the same production out of your SS as a 1B is largely different on the high end. The gap between Tulo and his peers, and a high-end 1B and theirs is monumentally different. Ignoring it doesn't make it not true.

I didn't say I am assuming - I said IF I assume - for arguments sake. I then went into his games played by year and guestimated he's due for a 145 game season and will probably draft him expecting around that.

The gap between tulo's CEILING and his peers' ceiling is huge, so again, if you expect Tulo to both be healthy AND rech his ceiling that would be the only way he pays out being drafted in round 1. Stats are stats and it doesn't matter where u get them from - position scarcity only matters when you are figuring the mean/average numbers and projecting how much positive or negative value one brings from preforming well above or below. I don't see Tulo as a guy worth the 10 HR, 20 RBI and negative 20 SB's you will get out of a mid round SS if you pick him in round 1 and he puts up a 145 game .290-80-25-90-10 season.

[benb18a]

Yeah I found out this year the hard way, just how valuable Tulo is due to positional scarcity. At first, I was like "so what's all the ado about?" Then when it came time to replacing him long term, I was like "oh, right. My SS is like a boat anchor to my stats every week now."

That said, Braun is the choice. Even as a homer, I was skeptical this year, hence why I didn't choose him with my mid-first round pick. But he defied everybody, defeating the biblical pressure to put up quite possibly his best season ever (so far). If that's a "can't miss" guy, then tell me what is.

Next would be Miggy. Basically, Braun -30 steals, but at a better position, which makes it a tough match, but Braun edges him overall.

Then, Trout. I'm just not sure I buy him doing this next season, much less permanently. Obviously the sky is the ceiling, but I'll let somebody else buy this high this year, and then take him #1 in 2014 if he duplicates.

Then, McCutchen. Yet another five category stud, only I don't feel confident about the fact he is far and away the best player in his lineup. This could very well be his best season ever, especially thanks to a ridiculous batting average that he has never sniffed, and I'd let somebody else pay top three price to see if he duplicates.

Votto rounds out the top five. Don't think I need to say anything else besides on pace to smash the record for doubles, and 1.096 OPS for more than half a season. Can't find five first basemen that will steal as many bases as Votto.

Honorable mention is Tulo. I see him as the MLB's equivalent of Jimmy Graham/Gronkowski, the "well, the top 5 RBs, top 2 WRs and Rodgers are gone, might as well go with the guy who will stomp all others at his position" pick. Fills in all five categories nicely, and simply does what an SS hasn't done since the Jeter/ARod/Nomar days.

[bayside]

sition scarcity is another argument which I'm not going to get much into. stats are stats and it doesn't matter where they come from.

You're welcome to choose to think that, but getting the same production out of your SS as a 1B is largely different on the high end. The gap between Tulo and his peers, and a high-end 1B and theirs is monumentally different. Ignoring it doesn't make it not true.

ya but the point is that you have to draft the SS in the 1st round and the 1b you can get 2-3 rounds later.
I completely agree that Tulo is a horrible 1st rd pick,
I wish somebody would do a study that shows the correlation between player selected in the first round, and overall finish within that teams league.
I would be willing to be that a very small (relative) % of teams who drafted Tulo in the top 15 picks, have won their league (or are currently winning it) over the past 5 years

[Izenhart]

sition scarcity is another argument which I'm not going to get much into. stats are stats and it doesn't matter where they come from.

You're welcome to choose to think that, but getting the same production out of your SS as a 1B is largely different on the high end. The gap between Tulo and his peers, and a high-end 1B and theirs is monumentally different. Ignoring it doesn't make it not true.

ya but the point is that you have to draft the SS in the 1st round and the 1b you can get 2-3 rounds later.
I completely agree that Tulo is a horrible 1st rd pick,
I wish somebody would do a study that shows the correlation between player selected in the first round, and overall finish within that teams league.
I would be willing to be that a very small (relative) % of teams who drafted Tulo in the top 15 picks, have won their league (or are currently winning it) over the past 5 years

I took Mike Aviles in the last round in many leagues and although he hasn't been great, the negative value overall from his numbers is small due to the position being somewhat of a black hole this season with only a handful of guys doing well, and I would argue that like catching its safer and smarter to find servicable guys late and play the hot hand throughout the year in filling the gap.

This season had a lot of top scarcity picks fail, ala Napoli, Santana, Tulo and to a lesser extent guys like Hanley Ramirez.

some numbers for you regarding Hanley vs Aviles just to throw something out there:

Hanley: 260-63-16-71-16
Aviles: 252-49-11-52-11

8 Avg points, 14 runs, 5 hr, 19 rbi, 5 sb. This isn't a large enough gap to justify the scarcity pick of taking Hanley in round two IMO. Sure Hanley hasn't been great, and we'd expect to see an AVG around 290-300 or so, but Aviles career avg is 280, so you could even argue Aviles has been somewhat disappointing, yet his production hasn't hurt that much since the top SS picks really haven't panned out this season. The best teams I have are starting WW pickups at both C and SS like Salvador Perez and Rutlidge/Machado to name a few. Loading up on top OFs early was the smart play, and the gap between the top OF and the mediocre ones you pluck from the WW is large enough to justify OF as the most underrated position to pick due to position scarcity. What I mean is, its very hard to find a FA OF to produce at the average fantasy OF rate, while the failure of top picks from C and SS have made free agents at those positions much more viable plays, so the 'position scarcity' argument for both SS and C is overrated due to the overall risk the top ranked players currently have.