Retooling Auction Draft Strategy - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby BigZ38 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:37 pm

So every preseason I read a lot of articles about Auction draft strategy. Some models suggest budgeting X for batters, X for pitchers, others suggest trying to slot guys into rounds and drafting people within certain ranges. Based on a few years of doing auction drafts, and examining my rosters at the end of the year, I've noticed how few players I retained on my roster from the initial draft. Naturally, I wanted to get the best return on the money I spend in the draft.

Thus based on my past research, and various strategy articles I've read, I developed a new strategy that I have deployed in my auction leagues this year, and it focuses on retaining the highest percentage of your draft money on your end of the year roster. Essentially the plan is to draft known quantities at high dollars, and use roster flexibility, upside breakout players, and the free agent pool to fill out your team. Essentially cut out the mid range players (guys between $35 and 10 dollars in your auction drafts).

The below is my roster of a standard 12 team roto, 22 man roster $260 draft. Most owner in the league have been active, and there have been over 250 roster moves. I am currently in first with 105 points and am 14 points up overall.


Player Spent Rostered
Matt Kemp(LAD - CF) $46 Yes
Justin Upton(Ari - RF) $43 Yes
Clayton Kershaw(LAD - SP) $36 Yes
Ryan Braun(Mil - LF) $45 Yes
Nelson Cruz(Tex - LF,RF) $17 Yes
Paul Goldschmidt(Ari - 1B) $7 Yes
Freddie Freeman(Atl - 1B) $6 Yes
Brandon Morrow(Tor - SP) $6 Yes
Aroldis Chapman(Cin - RP) $2 Yes
E. Encarnacion(Tor - 3B) $1 Yes
Jason Motte(StL - RP) $2 Yes
J. Hellickson(TB - SP) $10 Yes
Roy Oswalt(Tex - SP) $1 No
Dustin Ackley(Sea - 2B) $10 No
Jesus Montero(Sea - C) $7 No
Adam Lind(Tor - 1B) $2 No
Javy Guerra(LAD - RP) $2 No
Matt Capps(Min - RP) $2 No
Alcides Escobar(KC - SS) $1 No
Cory Luebke(SD - SP,RP) $6 No
Gaby Sanchez(Pit - 1B) $1 No
Derek Holland(Tex - SP) $7 No


So in this draft I have currently retained $221 dollars that I spent in the draft, or 85%. I have lost $39, or 15%. Translated to a snake draft, lets say 20 rounds, if you are still rostering 85% of your picks, that's 17 of 20, so only 3 players cut lose. If you're an active manager that's an incredible draft.

The advantage that I've found using this is that I have no qualms about cutting a low risk player in terms of a high performing or upside guy on the waiver wire. Case in point my team has added Mike Trout, Josh Reddick, A.J. Burnett, and Mike Fiers. In addition, even if your high dollar guys perform at an overall value of $45 (lets say you bought them for $45), consider them to be a stock that doesn't really go up or down, but pays solid dividends. Go after the cheap stocks with big potential, where you can get 40x the cost of acquiring them in value.

Obviously there are some caveats
- You may trade a player you drafted, in that case if you consider the player you drafted still rosterable, I would count the player you traded toward your end of the year draft value retention
- Rosterable players might get injured and may not be returning value. In this case I'm counting Morrow because he is coming back, but I considered him to be relatively successful when he was pitching.


I'm currently in first or second in 5 of the leagues I tried this in, 3rd in another, and 7th (out of 16) in another. Just throwing this out there to see if anyone tried any new strategies this year and has measured how they worked?
Image
BigZ38
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 717
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Aug 03, 2012 12:47 am

This is pretty common, usually referred to as Stars and Scrubs. It works a lot better in shallower leagues, including most mixed leagues. It's nice to be able to have a few guys you feel comfortable cutting in favour of a hot bat or arm. In my opinion it's a mistake to do this in a really deep league like AL/NL only leagues, where playing time, and maximizing at-bats, is the name of the game.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3082
(Past Year: 110)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby OBPlover » Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:56 pm

Well it's nice to talk about baseball auction stratregy..was expecting posts like these in the offseason.

But anyways, to answer your question... the key here is the old phrase "it depends".

The answer to almost every question in fantasy baseball strategy is "It depends".

Is it a mixed league or AL/NL only? How many transactions are allowed? is there a cost per transaction? What are the categories and are there yearly IP limits?

What you have been describing is a perfect storm where it has worked out beuatifully for you. You have some key Monster-mashers like Braun that you spent a lot of money on. Plus this has been a year with some HUGE guys available as Free agents. There are usually some useful guys but I don't recall a probable AL MVP being undrafted. It's a fluky thing).
Not to mention a whole lot of other really good ones, EE, Reddick, etc.


What if you spent big money on the following guys...Ellesbury, Tulo, Longo, Hosmer, Upton,? As you said one huge risk is that your stars get injured.

The best thing to do with Auction formats is to have a set dollar figure for players and just STICK with it. Don't get involved with a bidding war. Don't Hoard your dollars so late that there's nothing left to spend.
OBPlover
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 628
(Past Year: 118)
Joined: 1 Apr 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby fast dogs » Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:53 am

works alot better in the 12 than 16 teamer where you want a more balanced roster as opposed to the stars in the small league. Not sure I'd keep J Upton at $43 reguardless, you still don't want to keep anyone at over what they'll go for next year. 12 team 22 man rosters are bound to produce numerous free agent steals, start w a loaded top end and bargain keeper core and you'll continue to flourish
fast dogs
General Manager
General Manager

CafeholicResponse TeamMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2545
(Past Year: 280)
Joined: 16 Dec 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby BigZ38 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:20 pm

fast dogs wrote:works alot better in the 12 than 16 teamer where you want a more balanced roster as opposed to the stars in the small league. Not sure I'd keep J Upton at $43 reguardless, you still don't want to keep anyone at over what they'll go for next year. 12 team 22 man rosters are bound to produce numerous free agent steals, start w a loaded top end and bargain keeper core and you'll continue to flourish


My trepidation with spreading out the money is that I feel like there are a lot of question marks with guys ranked between 30-100. The point I think some people are missing is that, if you look at your end of the year roster, you may only have 5-6 guys that you drafted. To me thats where you spend the money.
Image
BigZ38
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 717
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:55 pm

BigZ38 wrote:
fast dogs wrote:works alot better in the 12 than 16 teamer where you want a more balanced roster as opposed to the stars in the small league. Not sure I'd keep J Upton at $43 reguardless, you still don't want to keep anyone at over what they'll go for next year. 12 team 22 man rosters are bound to produce numerous free agent steals, start w a loaded top end and bargain keeper core and you'll continue to flourish


My trepidation with spreading out the money is that I feel like there are a lot of question marks with guys ranked between 30-100. The point I think some people are missing is that, if you look at your end of the year roster, you may only have 5-6 guys that you drafted. To me thats where you spend the money.

Again, this is only true in very shallow leagues. In my NL only league (been in first all season) I still have 20 of the players that I drafted. I also have 20 of my original picks on my AL Only team. My main mixed league (Dominated since day 1, have a 16 point lead), I have 21 players that I drafted. Pretty much the only waiver pickups are relief pitchers that are speculative adds for saves, and players that switch leagues or get called up from the minors (although the latter are usually drafted, too). There's just absolute trash on waivers in deep leagues, so you need to spread your money out or else you're stuck with a couple handfuls of part-time players and not enough full-timers to fill a roster.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3082
(Past Year: 110)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:45 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
BigZ38 wrote:
fast dogs wrote:works alot better in the 12 than 16 teamer where you want a more balanced roster as opposed to the stars in the small league. Not sure I'd keep J Upton at $43 reguardless, you still don't want to keep anyone at over what they'll go for next year. 12 team 22 man rosters are bound to produce numerous free agent steals, start w a loaded top end and bargain keeper core and you'll continue to flourish


My trepidation with spreading out the money is that I feel like there are a lot of question marks with guys ranked between 30-100. The point I think some people are missing is that, if you look at your end of the year roster, you may only have 5-6 guys that you drafted. To me thats where you spend the money.

Again, this is only true in very shallow leagues. In my NL only league (been in first all season) I still have 20 of the players that I drafted. I also have 20 of my original picks on my AL Only team. My main mixed league (Dominated since day 1, have a 16 point lead), I have 21 players that I drafted. Pretty much the only waiver pickups are relief pitchers that are speculative adds for saves, and players that switch leagues or get called up from the minors (although the latter are usually drafted, too). There's just absolute trash on waivers in deep leagues, so you need to spread your money out or else you're stuck with a couple handfuls of part-time players and not enough full-timers to fill a roster.

I agree. Shallow leagues, with lots of turnover, spend for studs, and fill out the rest of your roster with $1 players (especially in keepers). The replacement level is so high in these leagues, that you can replace the production of a $1 player with another. In my NL-Only league, the best free agent hitter available right now is Jonathan Herrera. If my SS (Jose Reyes) gets hurt, and I have to go to the waiver wire for a ss, then I'm SCREWED, because Herrera isn't coming close to Reyes' production.
Niffoc4
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1700
(Past Year: 9)
Joined: 26 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby Element » Mon Aug 06, 2012 2:42 pm

This kind of approach never works in my auction. It's only 12 team, 23 players, but everyone is always active and you only get 10 add/drops all season (unlimited DL/ML moves). You would be out of waive moves by the end of April.
Image
Element
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4909
(Past Year: 685)
Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby BigZ38 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 2:48 pm

Element wrote:This kind of approach never works in my auction. It's only 12 team, 23 players, but everyone is always active and you only get 10 add/drops all season (unlimited DL/ML moves). You would be out of waive moves by the end of April.


10 add/drops? Thats absurd and a lazy league.
Image
BigZ38
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 717
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Retooling Auction Draft Strategy

Postby J35J » Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:05 pm

BigZ38 wrote:
Element wrote:This kind of approach never works in my auction. It's only 12 team, 23 players, but everyone is always active and you only get 10 add/drops all season (unlimited DL/ML moves). You would be out of waive moves by the end of April.


10 add/drops? Thats absurd and a lazy league.


I wouldn't say that at all. It puts emphasis on player evaluation...you can't just go add/dropping 3-4 guys a week and hope you hit on one. It also gives so much value to the draft as well. I'd say it makes you work harder in a league like this in some aspects because you have to evaluate every move you make to the nth degree because you have so few moves to make...you certainly can't blindly waste an add on someone just because...you better be sure! I've seen some guys add and drop every young guy that makes it to the big club regardless of any research or possiblity that they might even be good just for the fact that if he does hit on 1 or 2 out of the 50 moves he made on the young guys then it can really put you over the top...no skill in that.


Anyway, you'll retain most of your drafted team if they perform well, if they don't perform well you won't retain most of your team...doesn't matter how much you spend on them. Just look at the few posts in this thread, those teams that have done well still have most of their drafted team...it's not often that you win a league because you've gotten rid of most of your roster for fa/ww acquisitions. It will always be about player evaluation...if 3 of your 5 $40 dollar players flop or get hurt and none of your $1-2 players bust out for you then you aren't going to win. If you don't go the Stars/Scrubs route and you pick right on all the $15 players then you'll still win...there's a million ways to spend your money...the way that works every time is not being wrong on the players you pick. :-)
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 363)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact