J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby Skin Blues » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:06 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:
Ender wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:
You must have avoided Matt Cain as well.


Last year was Zimmermann's first "full season" and his innings were monitored. I think of Zimmermann REALLY wanted to he could be an 7.5-8 K/9 guy, but why fox what isn't broken.
I probably Won't be taking Zimm next season if he goes higher than the 5th round because I don't usually take pitching that high, but I think he is an excellent pitcher and will continue to be a great weapon for any fantasy team for years to come.


Nope. Cain has a solid long term track record of beating his xFIP. If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills. If Zimmerman had a long history of this type of thing I would have a very different opinion of him but he just doesn't at this point.

Well Zimmermann had last years full season and this years full season, and has the talent to potentially have a K/9 breakout within the next couple years... Guys who throw 96 mph usually strike out more batters than what Zimmermann has done, so to say he'd be a complete downside pick next year seems silly.

Henderson Alvarez throws just as hard as Zimmermann does, and has put up 3.4 K/9 this season. Not saying their talents are equal, but you can't just correlate a K-rate with how hard a guy throws. Zimm is looking like a 3.60 ERA 1.20 WHIP kind of pitcher, with 7 K/9. That's pretty good, but people are going to be drafting him based on his low ERA this season and the hope that his K/9 will miraculously out-produce his career numbers in both the majors (7.3) and minors (8.6 in AA, 6.4 in AAA). For his career - despite the large discrepency this season - his ERA is not far off of his xFIP/SIERA. There's just not much room for profit, IMO, and I'll let somebody else pay the premium required to acquire him.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3080
(Past Year: 139)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby bayside » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:20 pm

Ender wrote:If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills.

oh i see. so 8+ K/9 and sub-2 BB/9 only plays in the NL West and only at ATT Park?
ok, got it.

and I guess the fact that this year Cain is allowing a career high HR/9 and a career high HR/FB and is STILL keeping his ERA under 3 for the 3rd time in 4 years, is another reason he would be worthless if he was on any team but the Giants right?
bayside
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1344
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: WHOOOOOS got it better than us?

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby Izenhart » Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:46 am

bayside wrote:
Ender wrote:If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills.

oh i see. so 8+ K/9 and sub-2 BB/9 only plays in the NL West and only at ATT Park?
ok, got it.

and I guess the fact that this year Cain is allowing a career high HR/9 and a career high HR/FB and is STILL keeping his ERA under 3 for the 3rd time in 4 years, is another reason he would be worthless if he was on any team but the Giants right?


Hard to say, and since it can't really be proven in any way it doesn't help any point you may be trying to make with it.

The bottom line is, according to his current ERA Zimm is performing better than his geek numbers tell us, which tend to lead the masses to believe that he will regress and that if you expect his current numbers to sustain or improve you are in for a rude awakening. If you do however think he will be a sub 3 ERA pitcher with a 7+ K/9 on a winning ballclub, then you will most likely have to pay a premium for him next year, which is a risk when you look at the overall picture. I try and draft teams by limiting risk and will be staying away from drafing Zimm above the middle tier in mixed leagues.
Izenhart
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1608
(Past Year: 298)
Joined: 22 Mar 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Big Papiville

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:00 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:
Ender wrote:
Nope. Cain has a solid long term track record of beating his xFIP. If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills. If Zimmerman had a long history of this type of thing I would have a very different opinion of him but he just doesn't at this point.

Well Zimmermann had last years full season and this years full season, and has the talent to potentially have a K/9 breakout within the next couple years... Guys who throw 96 mph usually strike out more batters than what Zimmermann has done, so to say he'd be a complete downside pick next year seems silly.

Henderson Alvarez throws just as hard as Zimmermann does, and has put up 3.4 K/9 this season. Not saying their talents are equal, but you can't just correlate a K-rate with how hard a guy throws. Zimm is looking like a 3.60 ERA 1.20 WHIP kind of pitcher, with 7 K/9. That's pretty good, but people are going to be drafting him based on his low ERA this season and the hope that his K/9 will miraculously out-produce his career numbers in both the majors (7.3) and minors (8.6 in AA, 6.4 in AAA). For his career - despite the large discrepency this season - his ERA is not far off of his xFIP/SIERA. There's just not much room for profit, IMO, and I'll let somebody else pay the premium required to acquire him.

Zimmermann at least showed us in the minors and in his first couple stints in the majors that he can be a K/9 guy, Alvarez has never showed that. Zimmermann is a pitch to contact guy right now because its working, I think he is more than capable of dialing up the K's.

3.60 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP is inflating it a bit much imo. I would say he will be somewhere between that and what he is doing now for a majority of his prime. I dont think he will every be a strikeout king, but I dont think he will regress as much as you guys are saying he is. Usually guys who have a K/BB around 4 and dont allow many home runs tend to be pretty good pitchers. His line drive percentage is low, and his BABIP is usually low, meaning that when batters make contact, its usually weak contatct.

I think a 3.20ish ERA with a 1.10ish WHIP and a K/9 around 7 with decent win totals should be expected of Zimmermann for years to come. Give or take 0.50 ERA and 0.10 WHIP. I actually think Zimmermann is one of the safer pitchers you can take for next season.
NikkiSixx
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Response TeamPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 2583
(Past Year: 429)
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 1st place!

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:04 pm

All that being said, I dont usually spend high picks (or a lot of money in an auction) on pitchers, so he probably wont be on any of my teams next year, but it was nice owning him in most leagues this year.
NikkiSixx
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Response TeamPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 2583
(Past Year: 429)
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 1st place!

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby Ender » Wed Aug 08, 2012 1:13 am

bayside wrote:
Ender wrote:If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills.

oh i see. so 8+ K/9 and sub-2 BB/9 only plays in the NL West and only at ATT Park?
ok, got it.

and I guess the fact that this year Cain is allowing a career high HR/9 and a career high HR/FB and is STILL keeping his ERA under 3 for the 3rd time in 4 years, is another reason he would be worthless if he was on any team but the Giants right?



Matt Cain's past 5 seasons were all under 7.5 k/9 and over 2.4 bb/9. He has shown improvement this year for sure though it hasn't translated into his ERA just yet. His stats this year are kinda freaky, his fastball has been much weaker than normal and he is relying on his slider more than ever which isn't a good sign for me personally. I don't know what to think about Cain's value going from here on out. He has perennial been underrated for a few years now but I'm guessing next year is the first time he is overrated.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby mayor quimby » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:30 pm

Jordan Zimmermann, 8/9/2012

6 IP
3 H
0 BB
0 ER
11 K

who was saying he doesn't strike people out?
mayor quimby
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 389
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 17 May 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:49 pm

mayor quimby wrote:Jordan Zimmermann, 8/9/2012

6 IP
3 H
0 BB
0 ER
11 K

who was saying he doesn't strike people out?


pretty sure i could strike out 11 astros.
Image
25
@FBC_GiantsFan14 on Twitter
GiantsFan14
Baseball Scribe
Baseball Scribe

User avatar
EditorCafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 14137
(Past Year: 427)
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: BUSTER HATH ARRIVED

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby J35J » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:59 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
mayor quimby wrote:Jordan Zimmermann, 8/9/2012

6 IP
3 H
0 BB
0 ER
11 K

who was saying he doesn't strike people out?


pretty sure i could strike out 11 astros.


He's the only one to do it this month...it's easy to throw jabs at the Stros, they're awful...but don't act like putting up that line is an easy thing to do. Not to mention he had only 87 pitches thrown so he still likely had another inning or two in him if it really mattered.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 393)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 11:18 pm

J35J wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
mayor quimby wrote:Jordan Zimmermann, 8/9/2012

6 IP
3 H
0 BB
0 ER
11 K

who was saying he doesn't strike people out?


pretty sure i could strike out 11 astros.


He's the only one to do it this month...it's easy to throw jabs at the Stros, they're awful...but don't act like putting up that line is an easy thing to do. Not to mention he had only 87 pitches thrown so he still likely had another inning or two in him if it really mattered.


it's silly to point out a single data point against a terrible team to try to prove a point instead of the last 300 or so innings he's pitched. I don't even necessarily agree that his K rate won't increase, but I'll take jabs at that any day.
Image
25
@FBC_GiantsFan14 on Twitter
GiantsFan14
Baseball Scribe
Baseball Scribe

User avatar
EditorCafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 14137
(Past Year: 427)
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: BUSTER HATH ARRIVED

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Tuesday, Sep. 2
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Cincinnati at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Detroit at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
Boston at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Philadelphia at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
NY Mets at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Toronto at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Milwaukee at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Chi White Sox at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
Texas at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
LA Angels at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
(8:15 pm)
San Francisco at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
Seattle at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
Washington at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
Arizona at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact