NikkiSixx wrote: You must have avoided Matt Cain as well.
Last year was Zimmermann's first "full season" and his innings were monitored. I think of Zimmermann REALLY wanted to he could be an 7.5-8 K/9 guy, but why fox what isn't broken. I probably Won't be taking Zimm next season if he goes higher than the 5th round because I don't usually take pitching that high, but I think he is an excellent pitcher and will continue to be a great weapon for any fantasy team for years to come.
Nope. Cain has a solid long term track record of beating his xFIP. If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills. If Zimmerman had a long history of this type of thing I would have a very different opinion of him but he just doesn't at this point.
Well Zimmermann had last years full season and this years full season, and has the talent to potentially have a K/9 breakout within the next couple years... Guys who throw 96 mph usually strike out more batters than what Zimmermann has done, so to say he'd be a complete downside pick next year seems silly.
Henderson Alvarez throws just as hard as Zimmermann does, and has put up 3.4 K/9 this season. Not saying their talents are equal, but you can't just correlate a K-rate with how hard a guy throws. Zimm is looking like a 3.60 ERA 1.20 WHIP kind of pitcher, with 7 K/9. That's pretty good, but people are going to be drafting him based on his low ERA this season and the hope that his K/9 will miraculously out-produce his career numbers in both the majors (7.3) and minors (8.6 in AA, 6.4 in AAA). For his career - despite the large discrepency this season - his ERA is not far off of his xFIP/SIERA. There's just not much room for profit, IMO, and I'll let somebody else pay the premium required to acquire him.
Ender wrote:If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills.
oh i see. so 8+ K/9 and sub-2 BB/9 only plays in the NL West and only at ATT Park? ok, got it.
and I guess the fact that this year Cain is allowing a career high HR/9 and a career high HR/FB and is STILL keeping his ERA under 3 for the 3rd time in 4 years, is another reason he would be worthless if he was on any team but the Giants right?
Ender wrote:If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills.
oh i see. so 8+ K/9 and sub-2 BB/9 only plays in the NL West and only at ATT Park? ok, got it.
and I guess the fact that this year Cain is allowing a career high HR/9 and a career high HR/FB and is STILL keeping his ERA under 3 for the 3rd time in 4 years, is another reason he would be worthless if he was on any team but the Giants right?
Hard to say, and since it can't really be proven in any way it doesn't help any point you may be trying to make with it.
The bottom line is, according to his current ERA Zimm is performing better than his geek numbers tell us, which tend to lead the masses to believe that he will regress and that if you expect his current numbers to sustain or improve you are in for a rude awakening. If you do however think he will be a sub 3 ERA pitcher with a 7+ K/9 on a winning ballclub, then you will most likely have to pay a premium for him next year, which is a risk when you look at the overall picture. I try and draft teams by limiting risk and will be staying away from drafing Zimm above the middle tier in mixed leagues.
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Altuve 3 ARam S Cabrera CI LaRoche MI Drew O Melky, Cuddyer, Morse, Hunter, McClouth U Ortiz SP Lee, Fister, Miller, Fernandez, Lackey, RP Chapman Frieri Grilli Gregrsn Bnch 1 Hart 3 Mdlbrk 3 Rendon O Eaton P Lohse Nolasco Santana
Ender wrote: Nope. Cain has a solid long term track record of beating his xFIP. If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills. If Zimmerman had a long history of this type of thing I would have a very different opinion of him but he just doesn't at this point.
Well Zimmermann had last years full season and this years full season, and has the talent to potentially have a K/9 breakout within the next couple years... Guys who throw 96 mph usually strike out more batters than what Zimmermann has done, so to say he'd be a complete downside pick next year seems silly.
Henderson Alvarez throws just as hard as Zimmermann does, and has put up 3.4 K/9 this season. Not saying their talents are equal, but you can't just correlate a K-rate with how hard a guy throws. Zimm is looking like a 3.60 ERA 1.20 WHIP kind of pitcher, with 7 K/9. That's pretty good, but people are going to be drafting him based on his low ERA this season and the hope that his K/9 will miraculously out-produce his career numbers in both the majors (7.3) and minors (8.6 in AA, 6.4 in AAA). For his career - despite the large discrepency this season - his ERA is not far off of his xFIP/SIERA. There's just not much room for profit, IMO, and I'll let somebody else pay the premium required to acquire him.
Zimmermann at least showed us in the minors and in his first couple stints in the majors that he can be a K/9 guy, Alvarez has never showed that. Zimmermann is a pitch to contact guy right now because its working, I think he is more than capable of dialing up the K's.
3.60 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP is inflating it a bit much imo. I would say he will be somewhere between that and what he is doing now for a majority of his prime. I dont think he will every be a strikeout king, but I dont think he will regress as much as you guys are saying he is. Usually guys who have a K/BB around 4 and dont allow many home runs tend to be pretty good pitchers. His line drive percentage is low, and his BABIP is usually low, meaning that when batters make contact, its usually weak contatct.
I think a 3.20ish ERA with a 1.10ish WHIP and a K/9 around 7 with decent win totals should be expected of Zimmermann for years to come. Give or take 0.50 ERA and 0.10 WHIP. I actually think Zimmermann is one of the safer pitchers you can take for next season.
All that being said, I dont usually spend high picks (or a lot of money in an auction) on pitchers, so he probably wont be on any of my teams next year, but it was nice owning him in most leagues this year.
Ender wrote:If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills.
oh i see. so 8+ K/9 and sub-2 BB/9 only plays in the NL West and only at ATT Park? ok, got it.
and I guess the fact that this year Cain is allowing a career high HR/9 and a career high HR/FB and is STILL keeping his ERA under 3 for the 3rd time in 4 years, is another reason he would be worthless if he was on any team but the Giants right?
Matt Cain's past 5 seasons were all under 7.5 k/9 and over 2.4 bb/9. He has shown improvement this year for sure though it hasn't translated into his ERA just yet. His stats this year are kinda freaky, his fastball has been much weaker than normal and he is relying on his slider more than ever which isn't a good sign for me personally. I don't know what to think about Cain's value going from here on out. He has perennial been underrated for a few years now but I'm guessing next year is the first time he is overrated.
He's the only one to do it this month...it's easy to throw jabs at the Stros, they're awful...but don't act like putting up that line is an easy thing to do. Not to mention he had only 87 pitches thrown so he still likely had another inning or two in him if it really mattered.
He's the only one to do it this month...it's easy to throw jabs at the Stros, they're awful...but don't act like putting up that line is an easy thing to do. Not to mention he had only 87 pitches thrown so he still likely had another inning or two in him if it really mattered.
it's silly to point out a single data point against a terrible team to try to prove a point instead of the last 300 or so innings he's pitched. I don't even necessarily agree that his K rate won't increase, but I'll take jabs at that any day.
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by Skin Blues » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:06 pm 
