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J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby mayor quimby » Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:19 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
One thing that's been just incredible has been his consistency. Has gone 6 or more innings in every single start this year, has only allowed more than 3 ER once all season, and hasn't failed to throw a QS since April. Guy has probably been the most reliable starter they've had despite Cain and Bumgarner being more dominant.


Vogelsong's consistency isn't quite up to par with Zimm's.

I dug a little deeper for the sake of this discussion and found these interesting bits:

Vogelsong has pitched a batter to a 3-0 count 11 times this year - walking the batter 10 of the 11 times.
Zimmerman has pitched to a 3-0 count 2 times this year - walking one of them.

Vogelsong has a 1.42 ERA at home, a 3.35 ERA on the road
Zimmerman has a 2.56 ERA at home, a 2.03 ERA on the road

Listen, I like Vogelsong very much and believe in him as a bona fide ace, I'm just making the case that Zimmerman is just a tad better.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:50 am

Ender wrote:I don't buy him as an ace at all myself. He has the highest xFIP of the 3 yet the lowest ERA. I'm not sure what to think of the Nationals in general given how flukey their team pitching line looks but I'm probably avoiding Zimmerman, Jackson and Detwiler next year. They have had 2 years of a normal looking ERA and 2 years of extremely low ERA compared to peripherals as a team now, I'm just not sure which is the real deal at this point.

xFIP also suggests that Jered Weaver is a fluke. It also suggests that Max Scherzer and Joe Blanton are both pitching better than Justin Verlander.


Zimmermann has very good stuff, he has great command, and he's pitching effectively. I buy into him whole-heartedly.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby Ender » Tue Jul 31, 2012 10:02 am

NikkiSixx wrote:xFIP also suggests that Jered Weaver is a fluke. It also suggests that Max Scherzer and Joe Blanton are both pitching better than Justin Verlander.


Zimmermann has very good stuff, he has great command, and he's pitching effectively. I buy into him whole-heartedly.


Zimmerman's career xFIP is 3.64, his xFIP this year is 3.59. His career ERA is 3.34, his ERA this year is 2.28. He is basically pitching just like he always has and for some reason his ERA is over a run better than normal, it is almost always going to be a fluke when this happens. I can believe in a 3.30 ERA with good whip, mediocre W and bad K Zimmerman. I don't believe in Zimmerman the fantasy ace at all. Toss in the paltry and declining K rate and he is almost certainly going to be overvalued next year. Having said that I will point to Johnny Cueto as sort of a carbon copy of Zimmerman. Another guy I just don't believe in who had the same sort of big jump in ERA with no support for it last year and has done it again this year so it isn't impossible. Of course I will be avoiding Cueto next year too. These guys are almost completely downside types of picks.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:44 pm

Ender wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:xFIP also suggests that Jered Weaver is a fluke. It also suggests that Max Scherzer and Joe Blanton are both pitching better than Justin Verlander.


Zimmermann has very good stuff, he has great command, and he's pitching effectively. I buy into him whole-heartedly.


Zimmerman's career xFIP is 3.64, his xFIP this year is 3.59. His career ERA is 3.34, his ERA this year is 2.28. He is basically pitching just like he always has and for some reason his ERA is over a run better than normal, it is almost always going to be a fluke when this happens. I can believe in a 3.30 ERA with good whip, mediocre W and bad K Zimmerman. I don't believe in Zimmerman the fantasy ace at all. Toss in the paltry and declining K rate and he is almost certainly going to be overvalued next year. Having said that I will point to Johnny Cueto as sort of a carbon copy of Zimmerman. Another guy I just don't believe in who had the same sort of big jump in ERA with no support for it last year and has done it again this year so it isn't impossible. Of course I will be avoiding Cueto next year too. These guys are almost completely downside types of picks.


I think he's a bit better than you're suggesting, but you're acting like a 3.30 ERA and good WHIP isn't worth anything. The fact is, even if this year is something of a fluke, it still should be taken into account somewhat, meaning his ERA for next year, realistically, should probably be around 3 or so, rather than 3.30. If you're going to put a lot of value on past years' ERAs, you have to account for this year at least a bit.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby J35J » Tue Jul 31, 2012 6:29 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:
Ender wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:xFIP also suggests that Jered Weaver is a fluke. It also suggests that Max Scherzer and Joe Blanton are both pitching better than Justin Verlander.


Zimmermann has very good stuff, he has great command, and he's pitching effectively. I buy into him whole-heartedly.


Zimmerman's career xFIP is 3.64, his xFIP this year is 3.59. His career ERA is 3.34, his ERA this year is 2.28. He is basically pitching just like he always has and for some reason his ERA is over a run better than normal, it is almost always going to be a fluke when this happens. I can believe in a 3.30 ERA with good whip, mediocre W and bad K Zimmerman. I don't believe in Zimmerman the fantasy ace at all. Toss in the paltry and declining K rate and he is almost certainly going to be overvalued next year. Having said that I will point to Johnny Cueto as sort of a carbon copy of Zimmerman. Another guy I just don't believe in who had the same sort of big jump in ERA with no support for it last year and has done it again this year so it isn't impossible. Of course I will be avoiding Cueto next year too. These guys are almost completely downside types of picks.



I think he's a bit better than you're suggesting, but you're acting like a 3.30 ERA and good WHIP isn't worth anything. The fact is, even if this year is something of a fluke, it still should be taken into account somewhat, meaning his ERA for next year, realistically, should probably be around 3 or so, rather than 3.30. If you're going to put a lot of value on past years' ERAs, you have to account for this year at least a bit.


It also wouldn't shock me if his K/9 went back up some. He's got solid stuff and should be able to strike more guys out if he wants, I would think...but yeah, he's good.
Last edited by J35J on Tue Jul 31, 2012 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Jul 31, 2012 8:19 pm

Ender wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:xFIP also suggests that Jered Weaver is a fluke. It also suggests that Max Scherzer and Joe Blanton are both pitching better than Justin Verlander.


Zimmermann has very good stuff, he has great command, and he's pitching effectively. I buy into him whole-heartedly.


Zimmerman's career xFIP is 3.64, his xFIP this year is 3.59. His career ERA is 3.34, his ERA this year is 2.28. He is basically pitching just like he always has and for some reason his ERA is over a run better than normal, it is almost always going to be a fluke when this happens. I can believe in a 3.30 ERA with good whip, mediocre W and bad K Zimmerman. I don't believe in Zimmerman the fantasy ace at all. Toss in the paltry and declining K rate and he is almost certainly going to be overvalued next year. Having said that I will point to Johnny Cueto as sort of a carbon copy of Zimmerman. Another guy I just don't believe in who had the same sort of big jump in ERA with no support for it last year and has done it again this year so it isn't impossible. Of course I will be avoiding Cueto next year too. These guys are almost completely downside types of picks.


You must have avoided Matt Cain as well.


Last year was Zimmermann's first "full season" and his innings were monitored. I think of Zimmermann REALLY wanted to he could be an 7.5-8 K/9 guy, but why fox what isn't broken.
I probably Won't be taking Zimm next season if he goes higher than the 5th round because I don't usually take pitching that high, but I think he is an excellent pitcher and will continue to be a great weapon for any fantasy team for years to come.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby Ender » Wed Aug 01, 2012 12:33 am

NikkiSixx wrote:
You must have avoided Matt Cain as well.


Last year was Zimmermann's first "full season" and his innings were monitored. I think of Zimmermann REALLY wanted to he could be an 7.5-8 K/9 guy, but why fox what isn't broken.
I probably Won't be taking Zimm next season if he goes higher than the 5th round because I don't usually take pitching that high, but I think he is an excellent pitcher and will continue to be a great weapon for any fantasy team for years to come.


Nope. Cain has a solid long term track record of beating his xFIP. If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills. If Zimmerman had a long history of this type of thing I would have a very different opinion of him but he just doesn't at this point.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby snash » Wed Aug 01, 2012 12:53 am

NikkiSixx wrote:
Ender wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:xFIP also suggests that Jered Weaver is a fluke. It also suggests that Max Scherzer and Joe Blanton are both pitching better than Justin Verlander.


Zimmermann has very good stuff, he has great command, and he's pitching effectively. I buy into him whole-heartedly.


Zimmerman's career xFIP is 3.64, his xFIP this year is 3.59. His career ERA is 3.34, his ERA this year is 2.28. He is basically pitching just like he always has and for some reason his ERA is over a run better than normal, it is almost always going to be a fluke when this happens. I can believe in a 3.30 ERA with good whip, mediocre W and bad K Zimmerman. I don't believe in Zimmerman the fantasy ace at all. Toss in the paltry and declining K rate and he is almost certainly going to be overvalued next year. Having said that I will point to Johnny Cueto as sort of a carbon copy of Zimmerman. Another guy I just don't believe in who had the same sort of big jump in ERA with no support for it last year and has done it again this year so it isn't impossible. Of course I will be avoiding Cueto next year too. These guys are almost completely downside types of picks.


You must have avoided Matt Cain as well.


Last year was Zimmermann's first "full season" and his innings were monitored. I think of Zimmermann REALLY wanted to he could be an 7.5-8 K/9 guy, but why fox what isn't broken.
I probably Won't be taking Zimm next season if he goes higher than the 5th round because I don't usually take pitching that high, but I think he is an excellent pitcher and will continue to be a great weapon for any fantasy team for years to come.


Yeah, I was thinking this year's Zimmermann reminds me of Cain from 2-3 seasons ago. Everyone talks about Cain's # are better than they should, but the man keeps going out there and keep doing well. Zimmermann looks to be on a similar track. What's more eerily similar is their record and respective team's lack of run support. Also, remember Zimmermann's rookie season where he showed good K per 9. Plus, this is his 2nd year from Tommy John. Things could look quite interesting comes the 2013 season.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:40 pm

Ender wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:
You must have avoided Matt Cain as well.


Last year was Zimmermann's first "full season" and his innings were monitored. I think of Zimmermann REALLY wanted to he could be an 7.5-8 K/9 guy, but why fox what isn't broken.
I probably Won't be taking Zimm next season if he goes higher than the 5th round because I don't usually take pitching that high, but I think he is an excellent pitcher and will continue to be a great weapon for any fantasy team for years to come.


Nope. Cain has a solid long term track record of beating his xFIP. If Cain got traded to another team he would be worthless to me but that park and that division suits him and makes him 10 times as valuable as his actual skills. If Zimmerman had a long history of this type of thing I would have a very different opinion of him but he just doesn't at this point.

Well Zimmermann had last years full season and this years full season, and has the talent to potentially have a K/9 breakout within the next couple years... Guys who throw 96 mph usually strike out more batters than what Zimmermann has done, so to say he'd be a complete downside pick next year seems silly.
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Re: J-Zimm: The unsung hero of the Nat's rotation

Postby Ender » Sun Aug 05, 2012 3:59 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:Well Zimmermann had last years full season and this years full season, and has the talent to potentially have a K/9 breakout within the next couple years... Guys who throw 96 mph usually strike out more batters than what Zimmermann has done, so to say he'd be a complete downside pick next year seems silly.



Obviously it depends on where he gets picked but from the sounds of things people are going to be drafting him as a true ace and that is a downside move.
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