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Marte Time

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Re: Marte Time

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:20 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:also. why could he not maintain .350+ BABIP in the majors? doesn't speed help with higher BABIP?
It's not that he can't, it's that it's unlikely. He would be an exception to the rule, even as a speedy guy. And that's what it's going to take for him to prove productive, IMO.

Austin Jackson has probably been the ultimate exception to the rule. I don't think there's a player I would compare to him, because he's shown you what can happen when you luck your way to a .400 BABIP (2009), and also what happens when the BABIP is a more reasonable figure like .340 (2010), and then again when it is .400 (2012). Marte is similar in this way in as I said, it looks like he'll require a ridiculously high BABIP that you can neither predict, expect, nor bank on to show any productivity. Jackson is a guy I would never, ever expect to bat .300, because he needs a .400 BABIP to do so, and likely so does Marte. Keep also in mind that Jackson has a superior batting eye compared to Marte, which you can't just simply gloss over.

As J3 said, anything can happen with prospects, but Marte has yet to display anything that really should make anybody get excited about him. At all. Ever.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby SpecialFNK » Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:30 pm

all those numbers are more connected to AVG aren't they? power/speed aren't directly connected to AVG/BABIP. I could be satisfied if he hit .260 with 20/20 or if he hit .280 with 20/20. the 2nd is better for sure though.
lower AVG/OBP does mean less time on base and less opportunities to run. but I think he can solve those SB/CS problems going forward. I think I remember reading that Shane Victorino became a better base stealing in the majors.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:43 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:all those numbers are more connected to AVG aren't they? power/speed aren't directly connected to AVG/BABIP. I could be satisfied if he hit .260 with 20/20 or if he hit .280 with 20/20. the 2nd is better for sure though.
lower AVG/OBP does mean less time on base and less opportunities to run. but I think he can solve those SB/CS problems going forward. I think I remember reading that Shane Victorino became a better base stealing in the majors.
Those numbers are tied to average yes. Though if you're hoping to get a fantasy player who steals bases, a guy who strikes out in 20+% of his PA and has no idea how to take a walk, and is successful less than 70% of the time isn't exactly the profile you're looking for. Fewer opportunities and a poor success rate with said limited opportunities is a poor equation. If Marte has one 20/20 season in his career I would be shocked, again, unless something major changes about him as a player.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:24 am

2 HR and 2 SB, showing power and speed. but his line is ridiculous!
.222/.216/.389/.605
0 BB/ 9 K.
I don't think it has been right for Pittsburgh to have been using him leadoff. he should have been down somewhere like 6th or 7th to start.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby bayside » Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:10 am

for some reason I just keep thinking of Marte as being ~ Vernon Wells.
some pop, some running, low OBP, and production dependent on the lineup around him more than anything.
serviceable most years, maybe 1 or 2 excellent fantasy seasons at his peak.

but no way do i see a McCutchen-like career path. not even close.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby BJSFAN123 » Wed May 01, 2013 3:54 pm

So Marte is killing it right now, but should we expect his average to come plummeting down and end up hitting around .260 by season's end? Guys that strikeout at his rate typically don't hit above .270
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Re: Marte Time

Postby Skin Blues » Wed May 01, 2013 5:18 pm

ZiPS says .273 from here on out. Steamer says .279. Both have him finishing the season above .280. Both are bullish on him in terms of fantasy value.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 10:41 pm

Austin Jackson has probably been the ultimate exception to the rule


I'd say Ichiro is the ultimate exception, Jackson is still most likely just a fluke considering the really streaky nature of his BABIP. I mean AJack might keep a .330 or something but anyone expecting him to keep that .368 career is in for some disappointment.

To keep a high BABIP you want to hit the ball extremely hard, rarely if ever pop up, have some speed for infield hits and have some plate discipline to get ahead in counts. This year he hasn't popped out yet and he has a very high infield hit rate so that is what is building it more than anything.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby Skin Blues » Wed May 01, 2013 11:18 pm

Ender wrote:Jackson is still most likely just a fluke considering the really streaky nature of his BABIP

HA! Four seasons of a .368 BABIP and it's still a fluke. He'll be 40 years old and will put up a .250 average or something, and Ender will be there saying "I told you it was unsustainable!"

He has indeed cut down on his K's this year and in turn isn't hitting the ball as hard, but the overall effect on his average has been negligible. He'd probably be better served swinging harder as he was before but there's not much wrong with this version, from a fantasy perspective.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby Ender » Thu May 02, 2013 9:07 am

Skin Blues wrote:
Ender wrote:Jackson is still most likely just a fluke considering the really streaky nature of his BABIP

HA! Four seasons of a .368 BABIP and it's still a fluke. He'll be 40 years old and will put up a .250 average or something, and Ender will be there saying "I told you it was unsustainable!"

He has indeed cut down on his K's this year and in turn isn't hitting the ball as hard, but the overall effect on his average has been negligible. He'd probably be better served swinging harder as he was before but there's not much wrong with this version, from a fantasy perspective.


It is all about his splits. He had a .400 BABIP for two big chunks of time and then sits around .340 most of the time. His first half BABIP last year was .417 and then it went back to the more normal .333 the rest of the year. He just hasn't had enough PA for it to normalize from the hot streaks yet. It reminds me of when Hafner had back to back .340 BABIP and people assumed it was just a skill, then the next two years it was back down to .300. 2 years of elevated BABIP don't mean much. When someone has really flukey looking stats it is usually best to assume it will adjust rather than assume they are unique. Jeter has kept a .355 BABIP for his entire career so it isn't like it is impossible, it just isn't likely though with Jacksons ability to avoid pop outs and get infield hits his should stay elevated, just not to that extreme.

Jackson cutting down the Ks is just huge because the old Jackson was probably a .270 hitter with some good luck to get to .290, this version might be a legit .290 hitter.
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