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Marte Time

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Re: Marte Time

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:48 pm

k.k. wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:back to back games now without a hit. 0 for 4 last night with 2 K, and 0 for 5 tonight with 1 K.
come on Marte, get back on track tomorrow.
This is really what is to be expected. A boatload of strikeouts, a little bit of pop, and hopefully the eye he showed this year and not over the rest of his career. If he posts an OPS over .750 I'll be surprised.

Looking ahead, what do you see for next year with Marte?
He carries an elevated BABIP because he's fast, but I don't see him being able to sustain the BABIP he carried as a Minor Leaguer in the MLB (See: Dee Gordon), so I don't think there's a prayer he approaches the .300 hitter he's been as a Minor Leaguer. I think he bats .275, strikes out way too much, doesn't walk nearly enough, and is generally not a very good 5x5 fantasy outfielder, unless he changes his approach at the plate.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby snash » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:24 pm

I predict that he'll be AJax during his rookie season. High BABIP, good swings when he makes contacts (extra bases), runs well (too bad I can't say the same for this year's AJax), and strikes out tons with little walks.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Jul 29, 2012 10:34 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
k.k. wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:This is really what is to be expected. A boatload of strikeouts, a little bit of pop, and hopefully the eye he showed this year and not over the rest of his career. If he posts an OPS over .750 I'll be surprised.

Looking ahead, what do you see for next year with Marte?
He carries an elevated BABIP because he's fast, but I don't see him being able to sustain the BABIP he carried as a Minor Leaguer in the MLB (See: Dee Gordon), so I don't think there's a prayer he approaches the .300 hitter he's been as a Minor Leaguer. I think he bats .275, strikes out way too much, doesn't walk nearly enough, and is generally not a very good 5x5 fantasy outfielder, unless he changes his approach at the plate.


damn you sure are down on Marte. you don't expect him to be very good? not even good 5x5 fantasy OF? he's been one of the Pirates top prospects.

one can make a comparison to Andrew McCutchen.
McCutchen career minor league- 511/1967 - .286/.362/.423/.785
Marte career minor league- 353/1402 - .313/.363/.481/.845
however Marte hasn't walked as much in the minors as McCutchen did, and Marte also strikes out more often than McCutchen did in the minors.
so I would not expect the AVG to be high. but his K rate isn't that high, so I don't think he's going to be some type of .260ish type hitter. he could still be .280ish type hitter.

maybe he could be similar to players like..
Adam Jones, but with more SB. that is Adam Jones coming into this season, not the Jones breaking out in 2012.
Austin Jackson, but with more power.

he does have power and speed.
really rough estimate, but I think even starting next year he has the good potential to have 15+ HR with 20+ SB, and maybe down the road 20/20 at least every year.
he's still only 23 years old and improving. there are always a lot of rookies who have good/great minor league numbers but don't translate that in the majors. Marte could be a bust, or he could continue to grow and be really good.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Jul 29, 2012 10:48 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
k.k. wrote:Looking ahead, what do you see for next year with Marte?
He carries an elevated BABIP because he's fast, but I don't see him being able to sustain the BABIP he carried as a Minor Leaguer in the MLB (See: Dee Gordon), so I don't think there's a prayer he approaches the .300 hitter he's been as a Minor Leaguer. I think he bats .275, strikes out way too much, doesn't walk nearly enough, and is generally not a very good 5x5 fantasy outfielder, unless he changes his approach at the plate.


damn you sure are down on Marte. you don't expect him to be very good? not even good 5x5 fantasy OF? he's been one of the Pirates top prospects.

one can make a comparison to Andrew McCutchen.
McCutchen career minor league- 511/1967 - .286/.362/.423/.785
Marte career minor league- 353/1402 - .313/.363/.481/.845
however Marte hasn't walked as much in the minors as McCutchen did, and Marte also strikes out more often than McCutchen did in the minors.
so I would not expect the AVG to be high. but his K rate isn't that high, so I don't think he's going to be some type of .260ish type hitter. he could still be .280ish type hitter.

maybe he could be similar to players like..
Adam Jones, but with more SB. that is Adam Jones coming into this season, not the Jones breaking out in 2012.
Austin Jackson, but with more power.

he does have power and speed.
really rough estimate, but I think even starting next year he has the good potential to have 15+ HR with 20+ SB, and maybe down the road 20/20 at least every year.
he's still only 23 years old and improving. there are always a lot of rookies who have good/great minor league numbers but don't translate that in the majors. Marte could be a bust, or he could continue to grow and be really good.
Your projections for him seem to be more of those of a hopeful owner than what is a reasonable expectation. You make the comparison to McCutchen, but as you said, the K and BB aren't close. The two are incomparable. Not even close to the same player. There's just nothing in Marte's minor league profile that makes me excited about him at all. Doesn't matter where he's ranked on a certain prospect list. The dude Ks a lot and had a God awful eye prior to this year, where he's improved to just having a poor eye. He's got some speed, but he's not a good base stealer. Guy gets caught a third of the time he attempts, so I wouldn't expect them to green light him in the Major Leagues as often as his owners are probably hoping. And he doesn't have a ton of pop. I'm just not sure what people are excited about? If everything breaks right, he's an average offensive outfielder, but it's certainly an uphill climb with the odds not in his favor, and it's unlikely he's able to post a .370 BABIP in the Majors to artifically boost his slash numbers. I see a guy who is a .275/.325/.400, and a sub-.750 OPS OF doesn't really do much for me. I think he's unlikely to be useful in 12-team mixed leagues aside from a 5th OF. I'm not sure what else I should be excited about regarding him? Cause he's highly rated?
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Re: Marte Time

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Jul 29, 2012 11:05 pm

it's a good sign that his walk rate is improving this season in the minors. I don't remember what page I was reading, but that he made an effort to improve on that this season.
he had 12 HR in AAA in 99 games, but that's the PCL so I don't expect him to be that good. he had 12 HR last year in AA in 129 games. I don't think it's a stretch to project 15+ HR going forward. but even if he doesn't have that power, starting next year he should still be at least 10-12.
I'm sure there are still things that he could learn as a base stealer. but he does have the speed. not just the SB as a sign, but this year 13 triples and last year 8 triples. the Pirates haven't looked like a team that will limit a player running because their success rate isn't the best, with multiple players are examples. this year- McCutchen 14/7. Presley 9/4, Tabata 8/9, Walker 7/5. last year- McCutchen 23/10, Presley 9/3, Tabata 16/7, Walker 9/6. I don't think the Pirates are going to stop/limit him from running because he isn't highly successful. so with his speed if he's in the lineup as a regular all season I think 15+ is safe bet and 20+ is doable.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:04 am

SpecialFNK wrote:it's a good sign that his walk rate is improving this season in the minors. I don't remember what page I was reading, but that he made an effort to improve on that this season.
he had 12 HR in AAA in 99 games, but that's the PCL so I don't expect him to be that good. he had 12 HR last year in AA in 129 games. I don't think it's a stretch to project 15+ HR going forward. but even if he doesn't have that power, starting next year he should still be at least 10-12.
I'm sure there are still things that he could learn as a base stealer. but he does have the speed. not just the SB as a sign, but this year 13 triples and last year 8 triples. the Pirates haven't looked like a team that will limit a player running because their success rate isn't the best, with multiple players are examples. this year- McCutchen 14/7. Presley 9/4, Tabata 8/9, Walker 7/5. last year- McCutchen 23/10, Presley 9/3, Tabata 16/7, Walker 9/6. I don't think the Pirates are going to stop/limit him from running because he isn't highly successful. so with his speed if he's in the lineup as a regular all season I think 15+ is safe bet and 20+ is doable.
so you're excited abiut a guy who will probably, at best, bat .280 with 10 HR and 20 SB?? I think .270 with 7 HR and 16 SB is more likely. He'd have to score 110 Runs for me to even bat an eye. Its also unlikely he bats leadiff long given a projected piss poor OBP.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby SpecialFNK » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:11 am

bigh0rt wrote:so you're excited about a guy who will probably, at best, bat .280 with 10 HR and 20 SB??


I think he does at least that in 2013, with potential for more. as he gets older and improves his ceiling is higher.
but then as a prospect it's the same with any prospect, it's all potential. he could potentially be 20/20+ just next year. or he could struggle the rest of this season and Pittsburgh decides to keep him in the minors to start next year and he's not brought up until July/August. a lot can happen. but he has the talent and potential to be really good, if not 2013, certainly down the road.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jul 30, 2012 10:01 am

SpecialFNK wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:so you're excited about a guy who will probably, at best, bat .280 with 10 HR and 20 SB??


I think he does at least that in 2013, with potential for more. as he gets older and improves his ceiling is higher.
but then as a prospect it's the same with any prospect, it's all potential. he could potentially be 20/20+ just next year. or he could struggle the rest of this season and Pittsburgh decides to keep him in the minors to start next year and he's not brought up until July/August. a lot can happen. but he has the talent and potential to be really good, if not 2013, certainly down the road.
This is where we're disagreeing here, I guess. What makes you believe that? Because there's nothing I see over the last four seasons of minor league production that suggests that to me. I see a guy who strikes out in 1/5 of his at bats, can't draw a walk (still awaiting his first as a Major Leaguer), has never shown much power or even really a ton of gap power that could translate into home run power, is not a great base stealer despite being fast (and it should be noted, that when you said Pitt wasn't likely to limit their running based on success rate, that not a single player had more than 33 attempts, which for Marte, would translate to 22 steals, and that's if he runs more than Andrew McCutchen which is pretty unlikely. If he isn't able to carry a .350 BABIP, he'll be on every Waiver Wire in standard leagues. Where's the potential? Other than being 'highly rated', I don't see it. Sure, he could change his approach, but you could say that about every single prospect.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby J35J » Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:40 am

Anything can happen with prospects, but I'd agree with h0rt on this one.
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Re: Marte Time

Postby SpecialFNK » Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:03 pm

I shouldn't really say Marte WILL do this and that, but that he has potential for XYZ.
I've read different sites that say he is still a work in progress. but he does have high upside and high talent level.
I look at minor league numbers and I think I could use them to say they suggest he has the talent level to translate certain numbers into the majors.
this year in AAA. 99 games/388 at bats he had 12 HR. now this is the PCL which I think inflates numbers.
last year in AA. 129 games/536 at bats he had 12 HR. now this was also when he was 22 years old.
maybe should also be noted the season before when he was 21 in A+ he did not have a HR at all.
but I don't think he would ahve been able to ahve 12 HR in each of the last 2 season if he did not have power. (it would be nice if I could also spell the word HAVE, FML).
the talent and potential is there, he needs to make adjustments.

also. why could he not maintain .350+ BABIP in the majors? doesn't speed help with higher BABIP?

I do think the Pirates should be batting him lower in the lineup. could help take pressure off him rather than having him leadoff.

Austin Jackson could be a good comparable. someone who made his major league debut at age 23. he had high K rate in the minors, higher than Marte. Jackson also had higher BB rate, and also increased his BB number in thejors.
Jackson never had the power numbers Marte has had. Jackson minor league career 2208 AB with 30 HR. Marte minor league career 1402 AB with 29 HR. Marte 806+ AB with 1 less HR.
the SB/CS could be deceiving. I don't know if one could look deeper. but how many times did he get caught stealing because of the pitcher/catcher made a good throw. the CS doesn't necessarily mean he was bad in all those attempts.

I don't really know what these numbers mean. but on thebaseballcube.com they have ratings for categories.
Austin Jackson.
Speed 88/ Contact 29/ Patience 54/ Batting 69/ Power 44
Starling Marte.
Speed 94/ Contact 39/ Patience 11/ Batting 95/ Power 56

he has more speed and power than Jackson. so couldn't one use that to suggest that by the time Marte is Jackson's age now of 25 (2 years from now) in half a season he could be be having better numbers than what Jackson has now? this season in 80 games Jackson has 10/10. that's half a season. prorate that over a full season and it would be 20/20.
speed doesn't always mean X number of SB, so you can't just assume Marte would get X number of steals. but the potential is there.

but as a prospect with potential, he could go either way. time will tell.

(EDIT: 5 bases, woo!)
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