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Jumbo Trumbo

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Jumbo Trumbo

Postby BigZ38 » Wed Jul 18, 2012 11:14 am

Where does Mark Trumbo slot in snake drafts next year and what do you believe his auction value is?

I project him as a 4th rounder and at around 25 bucks in a 12 team, 23 round, $260 draft.

I know a lot of people have him as someone who is going to regress to a .260 hitter, but the walk rate is up this year which suggests he is at least making some strides in pitch selection.
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Re: Jumbo Trumbo

Postby Ehlana » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:02 pm

I don't think he'll hit .300 next year, but .260 seems a bit low. It's hard to really get a feel on a guy when he's had one meh year with a bunch of strikeouts and then one good year. To me Trumbo this year seems a lot like Mike Napoli last year, but I don't think Trumbo will crash and burn as badly next year as Napoli did this year. The Angels offense should be fairly productive in the future so it wouldn't surprise me to see him do .275 high 28-33 homers 80 runs 100 rbis next year.

It might also depend a bit on your league's eligibility rules. If he keeps the 1B/3B/OF positions that he has this year in yahoo that'll give him a bump in value. I'd say late 3rd or early 4th seems reasonable in a snake draft for that production.
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Re: Jumbo Trumbo

Postby The_Show » Wed Jul 18, 2012 2:47 pm

His BB% is up +2.5% from 2011 and his BABIP sits at 0.326, so that suggests he's getting a tad lucky but at least he's picking his pitches better this season. He still swings and misses more than most and is on pace for 123 SO this year, but the SO are just part of the package.

I think his value sits at mid-3rd round if he can play 3B in your league. I feel a lot of people believe he will regress quite a bit next season. He's never had much hype around him and now that the Angels have Pujols and Trout, Trumbo will be getting even less attention. His peripherals suggest he's made a slight improvement this year, but 0.250 to 0.300 is quite the jump. In 2011 his BABIP was 0.274 so that combination of a slightly better approach at the plate and luck has really benefited him.

0.270 with 35ish HRs sounds about right, which for 3B eligibility is phenomenal. I predict he'll be taken somewhere in the 4th round just due to the fear of regression and lack of attention compared to Trout/Pujols.
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