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It's July (Trade deadline thread)

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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:58 pm

TopChuckie wrote:Last I heard the Phils and Hamels are still trying to work out a deal. Due to injuries and the hole they've dug, the Phillies are pretty much done for this year, but with their pitching staff, and presumably Howard and Utley back for the start of the year next year, albeit most likely a diminished version of each, I think the Phillies can still be the force next year that everyone expected them to be this year.

So with that being said, if I were the Phillies and Hamels and we did work out say a 5 year deal I would hold off on executing it with a "gentlemen's" agreement. I would still trade Hamels for a few top prospects, probably not the 4 or 5 they are looking for, but maybe 3, and then Hamels can play out the year for a contender and then resign with his original franchise which is now 3 or 4 prospects stronger for the future.

It's a bit unethical, but not illegal as the Phillies have the right to negotiate with Hamels right now, and it's certainly win-win. Hamels gets to still play the vast majority of his career for one team and gets the contract he wants, but also gets to compete for a championship this year. The Phillies get to keep their rotation intact but still get to replenish their terribly depleted farm system.

I'm actually a little surprised this sort of thing doesn't happen more often. Yeah the Phillies are taking most of the risk, but if they truly believe Hamels wants to play in Philly, and they trade him to Texas and the AL, and not to the Dodgers and his preferred West Coast, they probably don't have to worry about losing him to another team, and even if they do, they get the same thing as if they didn't work out a contract and just had to trade him for the prospects.
This doesn't happen because, in this case for example, if the Phillies allow Hamels to hit the open market, he would make a lot more money than in any agreement they could possibly agree to while he is still under contract. This is essentially Hamels just doing a major favor for the Phillies, when from his perspective, they're not willing to pay him what he's 'worth'. This happens occasionally with veteran players on the back end of their careers (for example, Carlos Lee likely re-signs with Houston this off-season), but not with a player in his prime earning years. Doesn't make sense for Hamels.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby Element » Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:05 pm

Hamels has already said that he's testing the market. He probably doesn't want to stay in Philly. The bigger markets should all be in on him this winter (Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, etc). The Phillies simply won't be able to afford him. Not just because I'm a homer, but I firmly believe that he will end up in a Dodger uniform and that he will still get the dollar totals he's seeking. It might not happen in July, but by the winter meetings it will be a done deal.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby TopChuckie » Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:10 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
TopChuckie wrote:Last I heard the Phils and Hamels are still trying to work out a deal. Due to injuries and the hole they've dug, the Phillies are pretty much done for this year, but with their pitching staff, and presumably Howard and Utley back for the start of the year next year, albeit most likely a diminished version of each, I think the Phillies can still be the force next year that everyone expected them to be this year.

So with that being said, if I were the Phillies and Hamels and we did work out say a 5 year deal I would hold off on executing it with a "gentlemen's" agreement. I would still trade Hamels for a few top prospects, probably not the 4 or 5 they are looking for, but maybe 3, and then Hamels can play out the year for a contender and then resign with his original franchise which is now 3 or 4 prospects stronger for the future.

It's a bit unethical, but not illegal as the Phillies have the right to negotiate with Hamels right now, and it's certainly win-win. Hamels gets to still play the vast majority of his career for one team and gets the contract he wants, but also gets to compete for a championship this year. The Phillies get to keep their rotation intact but still get to replenish their terribly depleted farm system.

I'm actually a little surprised this sort of thing doesn't happen more often. Yeah the Phillies are taking most of the risk, but if they truly believe Hamels wants to play in Philly, and they trade him to Texas and the AL, and not to the Dodgers and his preferred West Coast, they probably don't have to worry about losing him to another team, and even if they do, they get the same thing as if they didn't work out a contract and just had to trade him for the prospects.
This doesn't happen because, in this case for example, if the Phillies allow Hamels to hit the open market, he would make a lot more money than in any agreement they could possibly agree to while he is still under contract. This is essentially Hamels just doing a major favor for the Phillies, when from his perspective, they're not willing to pay him what he's 'worth'. This happens occasionally with veteran players on the back end of their careers (for example, Carlos Lee likely re-signs with Houston this off-season), but not with a player in his prime earning years. Doesn't make sense for Hamels.


It's all based on the presumption that they were able to work out an agreement this month which they are still supposedly trying to do. Supposedly Phillies are offering Cliff Lee money per year, just not the number of years Hamels wants...yet. I agree, it wouldn't be financially prudent for Hamels to agree to a deal now rather than hit the free agent market, other than the risk of getting hurt in his next 15 starts. But, if he IS willing to sign a deal with them now, then it would presumably be because he wants to stay and play out his career in Philly. Going to Texas for three months to play in a pennant race with the knowledge you will be returning to Philly next year with that contract is pretty much the same thing as playing out your career in Philly, only a little better.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby TopChuckie » Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:16 pm

Element wrote:Hamels has already said that he's testing the market. He probably doesn't want to stay in Philly. The bigger markets should all be in on him this winter (Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, etc). The Phillies simply won't be able to afford him. Not just because I'm a homer, but I firmly believe that he will end up in a Dodger uniform and that he will still get the dollar totals he's seeking. It might not happen in July, but by the winter meetings it will be a done deal.


I also agree this is the likely scenario, supposedly he wants to go to the West Coast, LA is where the money is, I don't think the Yankees will invest, and I don't the the Red Sox are very appealing anymore, but he and the Phils are still negotiating so who knows. That could all just be a ploy to try to improve the trade offers.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:21 pm

Element wrote:Hamels has already said that he's testing the market. He probably doesn't want to stay in Philly. The bigger markets should all be in on him this winter (Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, etc). The Phillies simply won't be able to afford him. Not just because I'm a homer, but I firmly believe that he will end up in a Dodger uniform and that he will still get the dollar totals he's seeking. It might not happen in July, but by the winter meetings it will be a done deal.
Given that he's from San Diego, I could certainly see him settling in with the Dodgers if the price is right. I don't know what other clubs will be looking to spend the kind of money Hamels will command, but I don't think the Phillies are among them (and I'm pretty upset that the Mets won't be, either). Maybe he shocks everybody and signs with the Padres to play in his home town :-b
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