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It's July (Trade deadline thread)

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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby Grounded Polo » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:00 am

benb18a wrote:I don't quite understand the reasoning behind some of these negotiations. It seems rather arrogant to not want to divest of a "can't miss" prospect in order to acquire an MVP/CY candidate veteran in their prime. I don't know enough about the game to be able to fully understand these types of trades that always involve prospects, but I know that Matt LaPorta was a "can't miss," "Braun clone" etc. according to pundits back when people said the Brewers were ripped off by the Indians for Sabathia. It almost seems like the game of baseball considers a bird in the hand to be < a bird in the bush.


It's because baseball is the only sport where salaries for young players are a fraction of established stars like Hamels. Mike Trout is clearly the AL MVP and makes like ~500k, Profar makes about the same. If Profar comes up and produces, paying ~500k for all star production beats 140 million for it. Paying up for an elite starter is easier than developing an elite player through your system and reaping the financial benefits.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby benb18a » Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:18 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:
benb18a wrote:I don't quite understand the reasoning behind some of these negotiations. It seems rather arrogant to not want to divest of a "can't miss" prospect in order to acquire an MVP/CY candidate veteran in their prime. I don't know enough about the game to be able to fully understand these types of trades that always involve prospects, but I know that Matt LaPorta was a "can't miss," "Braun clone" etc. according to pundits back when people said the Brewers were ripped off by the Indians for Sabathia. It almost seems like the game of baseball considers a bird in the hand to be < a bird in the bush.


It's because baseball is the only sport where salaries for young players are a fraction of established stars like Hamels. Mike Trout is clearly the AL MVP and makes like ~500k, Profar makes about the same. If Profar comes up and produces, paying ~500k for all star production beats 140 million for it. Paying up for an elite starter is easier than developing an elite player through your system and reaping the financial benefits.


I thought that might have something to do with it. I remember Prince being pretty much the league MVP and hitting 50 homers and getting paid like 500k lol. It is an interesting aspect to the game, I was thinking about this and the cycle of small market teams trading away talent to large market teams for prospects, and how it only seems like it's the large market teams that have financial difficulties. Seems like a perfectly good way to make a lot of money owning a team. That way you have minimal veteran contracts and many rookie contract players that will be traded before they really cash in but they still bring fans to the game in hopes of the team making it over the 80 win hump.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby kab21 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:38 pm

benb18a wrote:
I thought that might have something to do with it. I remember Prince being pretty much the league MVP and hitting 50 homers and getting paid like 500k lol. It is an interesting aspect to the game, I was thinking about this and the cycle of small market teams trading away talent to large market teams for prospects, and how it only seems like it's the large market teams that have financial difficulties. Seems like a perfectly good way to make a lot of money owning a team. That way you have minimal veteran contracts and many rookie contract players that will be traded before they really cash in but they still bring fans to the game in hopes of the team making it over the 80 win hump.


You're on the right track but I'm going to disagree with this. Small market teams have problems winning and keeping their team together. Basically their playoff windows are limited because they always need to be trading away their top players. If you look at the playoff teams most of them are usually at least mid market teams because they are able to keep their veteran stars and bring up cheap talent.

A simpler way to look at it is that Greinke/Hamels should average about 4-5 WAR/yr. If each WAR is worth 5M then he's worth about 20-25M/yr. If the Rangers trade Profar and other prospects for Greinke and are able to sign him for 6/120 (comparable to Cain) then Greinke is worth 0-5M/yr more than his contract. But if Profar becomes a decent 3 WAR player while earning 500K then he is worth 14.5M/yr more than his contract. He could bust but there is also a chance that he becomes a superstar. And if the Rangers really want a Greinke/Hamels then one of them should be available in the offseason and it probably won't cost much more than signing an in season extension.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby HighHeater » Mon Jul 09, 2012 4:13 pm

benb18a wrote:I don't quite understand the reasoning behind some of these negotiations. It seems rather arrogant to not want to divest of a "can't miss" prospect in order to acquire an MVP/CY candidate veteran in their prime. I don't know enough about the game to be able to fully understand these types of trades that always involve prospects, but I know that Matt LaPorta was a "can't miss," "Braun clone" etc. according to pundits back when people said the Brewers were ripped off by the Indians for Sabathia. It almost seems like the game of baseball considers a bird in the hand to be < a bird in the bush.


Profar is not a college player putting up decent stats like LaPorta... hes a 19yr old who is putting up stats in AA... who has shown extreme polish at a very young age. His BB/K ratio alone at such a young age and understanding of the game raises his status even more. I read a study on that where damn near every name listed turned into a star... nothing is a guarantee but I think just about every prospect pundit out there would say Profar is as close as they come. He was raising questions of being named along side the likes of Trout and Harper preseason from multiple experts. Given Texas dilemma with Hamilton this off-season and Andrus next year it would be very unwise to move Profar in my opinion. I'd rather them sign Hamilton and trade Andrus next season with Profar waiting in the wings.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby Grounded Polo » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:38 pm

HighHeater wrote: Given Texas dilemma with Hamilton this off-season and Andrus next year it would be very unwise to move Profar in my opinion. I'd rather them sign Hamilton and trade Andrus next season with Profar waiting in the wings.


I doubt they'll deal Andrus, too young/good/cheap. I assume Kinsler to left field will happen, it makes more sense.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby HighHeater » Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:25 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:
HighHeater wrote: Given Texas dilemma with Hamilton this off-season and Andrus next year it would be very unwise to move Profar in my opinion. I'd rather them sign Hamilton and trade Andrus next season with Profar waiting in the wings.


I doubt they'll deal Andrus, too young/good/cheap. I assume Kinsler to left field will happen, it makes more sense.


if they resign Hamilton i doubt they will resign Andrus next year... just my opinion tho but that's an awful lot of money tied up there, esp when u have the #1 prospect in the game there as a replacement.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby kab21 » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:54 am

HighHeater wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:
HighHeater wrote: Given Texas dilemma with Hamilton this off-season and Andrus next year it would be very unwise to move Profar in my opinion. I'd rather them sign Hamilton and trade Andrus next season with Profar waiting in the wings.


I doubt they'll deal Andrus, too young/good/cheap. I assume Kinsler to left field will happen, it makes more sense.


if they resign Hamilton i doubt they will resign Andrus next year... just my opinion tho but that's an awful lot of money tied up there, esp when u have the #1 prospect in the game there as a replacement.


hamilton and Andrus are completely unrelated imo. Texas has plenty of money. Andrus/Profar/Kinsler is the dilemna but 2B/SS/LF isn't a bad solution.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby Maris09 » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:35 pm

Not sure how long Beltre is signed for but I kind of figured Kinsler might slide over to 3B for Texas as his career went on. His bat can definitely carry that position.
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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby ayebatter » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:49 pm

Maris09 wrote:Not sure how long Beltre is signed for but I kind of figured Kinsler might slide over to 3B for Texas as his career went on. His bat can definitely carry that position.



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Re: It's July (Trade deadline thread)

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:49 pm

Maris09 wrote:Not sure how long Beltre is signed for but I kind of figured Kinsler might slide over to 3B for Texas as his career went on. His bat can definitely carry that position.

He has 3 guaranteed years left on his contract, and a 4th that's voidable -- but I believe it's only if he fails to met certain GP markers. Chances are he's there 'til 2016. Kinsler to LF seems reasonable, but there's always a chance he can simply DH.
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