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Help with my roster?

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Help with my roster?

Postby KoolPapaBell » Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:17 am

I am in a fairly shallow league, so ceiling is more important than floor. Also, it's an OBP league, for what that's worth.

I dealt the top tier of my prospects this year to improve at the MLB level, and I'm left a bit thin. Here are my 8 guys in the approximate order that I think I should value them:

    Danny Hultzen
    Nick Castellanos
    Javier Baez
    Jake Marisnick
    George Springer
    Alen Hanson
    Josh Bell
    Gary Brown
I think it's about time to cut Gary Brown, as I'm no longer convinced he'll be much of a fantasy stud, but do you see any obvious adds from the following list of guys who I think are the best available prospects? (Also, even if you don't see an obvious add, if you could name the best couple you see, that would be helpful as I still might deal one more prospect):

    Trevor Story
    Jean Segura
    Jonathan Schoop
    Miles Head
    Jorge Bonifacio
    Rougned Odor

I have a bias against pitchers, but that's because guys like Hiroki Kuroda are often available on waivers. That said, though, stud pitchers definitely carry value. These are the best pitchers available, as far as I can tell:

    Aaron Sanchez
    Jake Odorizzi
    Matt Harvey
    Daniel Norris
    Jesse Biddle
    Zach Lee
    Jose Campos

Thanks in advance for any advice.
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Re: Help with my roster?

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:17 pm

I wouldn't cut Gary Brown just yet as he's recently (FINALLY) been on a tear. Might as well see which way the wind blows. Rather, if you want to jettison someone, I'd send Bell packing. Out of the guys you listed, I like Rougned Odor and Matt Harvey.
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Re: Help with my roster?

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:17 pm

RedHopeful wrote:I wouldn't cut Gary Brown just yet as he's recently (FINALLY) been on a tear. Might as well see which way the wind blows. Rather, if you want to jettison someone, I'd send Bell packing. Out of the guys you listed, I like Rougned Odor and Matt Harvey.

Agreed. I just think Brown is way too good to not adjust and succeed/keep moving up. It's much more important to me to see him rake, move up, fail, rake, etc. and I have no reason at this point to think anything other than that is going to happen with Brown. He's no spring chicken, but he's also got too much upside and could contribute borderline elite numbers over some of the others on your list of keepers IMO.

I think Hansen and Bell are both cuttable for some combination of Segura, Odor, and Harvey. That said, I also like Bonifacio's upside down the road and think Odorizzi is worth a look as well. Hultzen should be up soon, so I don't know if that opens up a slot or anything, but I'd try to add your favorite 2-3 of the guys I've mentioned depending on how many slots are free/open up.

Hope this helps ;-D
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Re: Help with my roster?

Postby cardinal1975 » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:44 pm

If you are valuing upside and OBP makes a difference I send Gary Brown packing. We are talking about a guy who went to college for 3 years and had a great year in a hitter friendly High A ball league last year. He performed just as he should have being older for the hitter friendly league. He moved up to a tougher league that doesn't favor hitters to the extreme the Cal League did with better overall pitching and guess what....he looks fairly expendable. Most scouts didn't see him as anything resembling an elite hitter but instead a good defensive speedy CF lacking power and not having a big impact with the bat. Don't get me wrong....good defensive CF's with speed are valuable at the major league level and he should be an average player factoring in his defense at the big league level but I imagine your league won't give points based on his UZR. That leaves his speed as his only plus tool and he may not get on base enough to steal more than 30-40 bases and his average should fluctuate based on his babip from year to year. Best case scenario in his good years he should post a line similar to .300/.340/.400 with 35-40 steals. In the bad years look for a .270/.310/.370 line with the 30 steals which won't help many people not in deeper leagues.

In fantasy elite players win leagues and Brown is a mediocre player at best based on his age and tools. He has some speed but it isn't game changing speed in the way of a Billy Hamilton nor does he play a middle infield position where his bat would look a lot better.

I would drop Brown and add Jake Odorizzi as he should be up in 2012 to help your roster and I think if everything breaks right he could be a #2 SP. I might consider dropping Hanson or Bell for Segura who should be trade bait this summer for LA and with the sorry state of SS's I think Segura has a chance to be a 12-15hr bat with 25-30 steal potential to go along with a solid batting average/OBP. Hanson is further away than Segura and the upside between both is very similar. I still like Bell but 2012 will be a lost year for him and he will have to start 2013 back in low A despite his 30 hr potential.

Good luck! :-)
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Re: Help with my roster?

Postby dinordi » Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:59 am

All your hitting prospects are of the high-ceiling variety, with the exception of Brown. His 2011 production was fueled by the offensive California League. The power has all but disappeared (.079 ISO) and his caught stealing % is up from last season. I see him toiling in AAA next year, before a September promotion in which Bochy platoons and pinch-runs him for who knows how long.

Dropping him for Segura, Odorizzi or Harvey would be ideal. Don't sleep on Lee either, he's adjusted well in his second year and just debuted in AA Chattanooga. Maybe not a pitcher if high-end talent is frequently available on the wire. I definitely wouldn't give up on Bell before he plays a full season. He was touted just as highly as Starling, and commanded a similar signing bonus despite being selected 56 picks later. I'd hold on to Hanson as well, the 19yo is putting up much better numbers in the SAL than Machado did.
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