Why would you trade one of the better young SPs for a guy that absolutly stinks (esp in a keeper)? What he did 2 years ago is not relevant and clearly Lincecum is not what he was. I would not do this deal on a bet. Lincecum is being cut in redraft leagues as people are giving up on him.
Lincecum has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when runners aren't on base. When runners get on base (or worse, scoring position) he just can't seem to locate his pitches. On the plus side, Lince has a K/9 of 9.87- his best since his Cy Young season in 2009. He has a BABIP that should go down a small notch. And he also has a horrible 60.3% strand rate, which HAS to go back up towards the 75% average. So these things tell me that he is still a good pitcher but suffering some bad luck (his FIP is 3.78, not bad). But Tim's BB/9 is also the highest its been (much higher with runners on base) and he is clearly suffering some kind of mental block when runners reach base.
All that said, I think Lincecum still has the stuff to be able to bound back. He can still get batters out (as evidenced by his K rate) but he needs to make an adjustment when runners are on. If he does, the old Lince is back.
Hanson is OK. Compared to his previous three seasons, he has a lower K/9, higher BB/9, and is giving up more HRs. He has been lucky as far as his BABIP and strand rate go. His FIP is 4.77. I'd expect he stays at the level he is on, possibly gets a tad worse.
IF you aren't in the top 2-3 teams (or close to it), I would make the trade for Lincecum. If he bounces back he will be GOLD come H2H playoff time too (he gets to pitch in all those large NL West parks, other than Coors).
Lincecum has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when runners aren't on base. When runners get on base (or worse, scoring position) he just can't seem to locate his pitches. On the plus side, Lince has a K/9 of 9.87- his best since his Cy Young season in 2009. He has a BABIP that should go down a small notch. And he also has a horrible 60.3% strand rate, which HAS to go back up towards the 75% average. So these things tell me that he is still a good pitcher but suffering some bad luck (his FIP is 3.78, not bad). But Tim's BB/9 is also the highest its been (much higher with runners on base) and he is clearly suffering some kind of mental block when runners reach base.
All that said, I think Lincecum still has the stuff to be able to bound back. He can still get batters out (as evidenced by his K rate) but he needs to make an adjustment when runners are on. If he does, the old Lince is back.
Hanson is OK. Compared to his previous three seasons, he has a lower K/9, higher BB/9, and is giving up more HRs. He has been lucky as far as his BABIP and strand rate go. His FIP is 4.77. I'd expect he stays at the level he is on, possibly gets a tad worse.
IF you aren't in the top 2-3 teams (or close to it), I would make the trade for Lincecum. If he bounces back he will be GOLD come H2H playoff time too (he gets to pitch in all those large NL West parks, other than Coors).
Thats the problem. I am currently in 1st place by 2 games and am unsure whether I should break the chemistry.
I would go ahead and make the trade. It's been incredibly frustrating to see Lincecum be so bad for so much of this year, but despite your first place standing you have to be bold in order to win your league, and this is a chance I would be willing to take.
I remember offering my Hanson for Lincecum about a month ago. I am not so sure I would do it again now. Hanson is always solid, but I was looking to deal him because of all the stated reasons like walk rate and lower K's, but it's bad when everyone gets excited when a guy gives up 3 in 6 innings. Timmy is just such a risk right now. I always play with the assumption that I will make the playoffs and I look for guys to buy low, but I am balking at this move now and I think I would pass.
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by jruffus1 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 3:26 pm 
