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Offer Dunn/Gio/Middlebrooks for A. Gonz/Lawrie??

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Offer Dunn/Gio/Middlebrooks for A. Gonz/Lawrie??

Postby mm92280 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:54 pm

I am working on positioning my team for the 2nd half, as well as making sure that I have solid keepers in hand for next year. I am currently thinking about trying to do a buy-low on Adrian Gonzalez and Brett Lawrie, as I have to think Gonzalez is going to bounce back to some degree, as he's just been so productive every year prior to this season. Lawrie was tremendous in a limited run late last year and has been decent this year but not at the level some expected him to be. So, I'm thinking of offering my Adam Dunn, Will Middlebrooks and Gio Gonzalez for his Adrian Gonzalez & Lawrie. This is a 20 team H2H keeper league.

Dunn has obviously outproduced Gonzalez by a large margin thus far, particularly from a power standpoint but he is a major liability in AVG and if Gonzo catches fire, then a value-comparison between the two could look a lot different very quickly. I'm not sure that I see Dunn as a keeper, even if he hits 40 homers and drives in 100 RBIs because of his batting average. Gio Gonzalez is a top 15 starter right now and some might say a top 10 starter. He's a worthy keeper in a league this size.

Middlebrooks and Lawrie is a tough comparison. Coming into the season, Lawrie had a lot of hype and the production (well, at least in an abbreviated season) to back it up. Lawrie was considered an elite prospect, while Middlebrooks was probably just a quality prospect with the ability to eventually be an MLB starter with some extra seasoning. Obviously, Lawrie's mediocre start and Middlebrooks' promotion to the majors and hot hitting might have owners leaning more towards Middlebrooks as far as production from a rest-of-season standpoint. I'm still kind of thinking Lawrie > Middlebrooks from a keeper standpoint, though it certainly is way more debatable than it would have been in April.

So, what do you guys think of this offer? Am I gambling too much here on Gonzalez making a turn around? I just can't possibly fathom him being washed up at age 30, not after having 6 stellar seasons to start off his career.

As an FYI, scoring in my league counts AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS and Assists for positional players and W, ERA, WHIP, K, CG, SV and Holds for pitchers.

Here is my team, as it stands now:

C: C. Santana (C, 1B)
1B: A. Dunn (1B)
2B: B. Zobrist (2B)
SS: E. Johnson (SS)
3B: W. Middlebrooks (3B)
LF: A. Gordon (LF)
CF: C. Gonzalez (LF, CF, RF)
RF: L. Duda (RF, 1B)
Util: K. Youkilis (3B, 1B)
Util: B. Revere (CF, RF)
Bn: JD Martinez (LF)
Bn: Y. Cespedes (CF)
Bn: L. Cain (RF,CF) - DL

SP: C. Hamels
SP: G. Gonzalez
SP: H. Kuroda
SP: J. McDonald
SP: AJ Burnett
SP A. Cashner
SP: F. Paulino - DL

RP: S. Casilla
RP: A. Reed
RP: K. Medlin
RP: D. Storen - DL


Thanks for the help!
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Re: Offer Dunn/Gio/Middlebrooks for A. Gonz/Lawrie??

Postby rjforlife » Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:32 pm

Middlebrooks for Lawrie would be a very nice upgrade, for now and future. Middlebrooks is on fire now, but Lawrie seems to be more valuable. Slight edge to you.


Dunn/Gio for A. Gonz I think you lose, and lose big. Pretend 2011 never happened to Dunn, it won't happen again soon. He crushes A-Gon in HR/RBI, neither steal, A-Gon wins AVG big and probably runs. So, you throw in an ace with incredible K/9 and a great track record of improving on a top team? Not even close.


In the end, you are gambling far too much on Lawrie, not A-Gon. Even if A-Gon returns to form, you need Lawrie to outproduce Middlebrooks by a ton to make this worthwhile, and I just don't see it happening.



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Goldy is King.
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Re: Offer Dunn/Gio/Middlebrooks for A. Gonz/Lawrie??

Postby mm92280 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:48 pm

rjforlife wrote:Middlebrooks for Lawrie would be a very nice upgrade, for now and future. Middlebrooks is on fire now, but Lawrie seems to be more valuable. Slight edge to you.


Dunn/Gio for A. Gonz I think you lose, and lose big. Pretend 2011 never happened to Dunn, it won't happen again soon. He crushes A-Gon in HR/RBI, neither steal, A-Gon wins AVG big and probably runs. So, you throw in an ace with incredible K/9 and a great track record of improving on a top team? Not even close.


In the end, you are gambling far too much on Lawrie, not A-Gon. Even if A-Gon returns to form, you need Lawrie to outproduce Middlebrooks by a ton to make this worthwhile, and I just don't see it happening.



Help:

viewtopic.php?t=449433



Response posted on your topic. Unfortunately, it appears the Adrian Gonzalez owner in my league is going to reject this offer and seems to be intent on not selling him for anything less than his preseason value, as if the slump of the past 3 months never occurred. I imagine other owners that have tried to trade for Gonzo in leagues everywhere are probably experiencing the same thing. Sometimes owners just can't/won't readjust player values no matter what the statistical evidence shows. I would still like to have Adrian Gonzalez but I think it is too much to expect an owner to pay the same price for Gonzo now as what it would have been in March or February. I have a feeling I could offer Dunn + Gio for just Gonzo and the guy would reject it.
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