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Offer CarGo/Dunn/Duda for Pujols/Harper/Hosmer??

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Offer CarGo/Dunn/Duda for Pujols/Harper/Hosmer??

Postby mm92280 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 8:40 pm

In my 20 team H2H keeper league, I have been looking around at ways to possibly improve my team. The owner in my league that has Harper and Hosmer is willing to move them for the right price. I'm thinking about upping the ante and including Carlos Gonzalez in a deal to him but obviously won't do it for those. So, I'm considering offering Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Dunn and Lucas Duda to him for his Albert Pujols, Bryce Harper and Eric Hosmer. Obviously, everyone loves Carlos Gonzalez and he's one of the 5 most valuable players in fantasy baseball, so he isn't a player I would part with without getting a big return. I also think his value may never be higher than it currently is, so it actually could be a good time to sell if I can get a good enough return. Dunn has been a great power source for me this year, though is average has certainly hurt my tremendously. Still, he has real value. Duda is a steady though not spectacular option at RF and 1B who can put up respectable HR and RBI numbers. Pujols has obviously turned it around but his slow start to the season has supressed his overall numbers, so his value might be a little lower right now than it normally would be. Harper is valuable because its a keeper but he's probably not worth an elite guy at this point. Hosmer has been frustrating for owners but he's been hitting better of late and I believe that he's going to be a lot more productive from here on out.

Is this a totally unreasonable offer on my end? I have to believe that this would be great for me but I'm not certain that he would go for it.

As an FYI, scoring in my league counts AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS and Assists for positional players and W, ERA, WHIP, K, CG, SV and Holds for pitchers.

Here is my team, as it stands now:

C: C. Santana (C, 1B)
1B: A. Dunn (1B)
2B: B. Zobrist (2B)
SS: E. Johnson (SS)
3B: W. Middlebrooks (3B)
LF: A. Gordon (LF)
CF: C. Gonzalez (LF, CF, RF)
RF: L. Duda (RF, 1B)
Util: K. Youkilis (3B, 1B)
Util: B. Revere (CF, RF)
Bn: JD Martinez (LF)
Bn: Y. Cespedes (CF)
Bn: L. Cain (RF,CF) - DL

SP: C. Hamels
SP: G. Gonzalez
SP: H. Kuroda
SP: J. McDonald
SP: AJ Burnett
SP A. Cashner
SP: F. Paulino - DL

RP: S. Casilla
RP: A. Reed
RP: K. Medlin
RP: D. Storen - DL


Thanks for the help!
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Re: Offer CarGo/Dunn/Duda for Pujols/Harper/Hosmer??

Postby labarbatron » Thu Jun 21, 2012 8:51 pm

This deal isn't sweet enough on his end. Your asking him to give up 3 studs for basically CarGo.
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Re: Offer CarGo/Dunn/Duda for Pujols/Harper/Hosmer??

Postby mm92280 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:03 pm

labarbatron wrote:This deal isn't sweet enough on his end. Your asking him to give up 3 studs for basically CarGo.


Understandable but I disagree on the "3 studs" comment. Hosmer has excellent potential but he certainly isn't a stud at this point. So, he did reject the offer, which is understandable. He did make a counter offer but it was just a 1-for-1 trade in which he would give up Hosmer and I would give up Cole Hamels. Obviously, I rejected that trade. I think Hosmer does have value and very good potential but there is no way that I trade one of the 5 best starting pitchers for a guy with an OPS of .655 . So, he's obviously overvaluing Hosmer at this point and trying to shoot for the moon. I'm not sure that I would have done this trade even in preseason, let a lone after seeing Hosmer struggle for a couple of months.

Anyway, I've made another trade offer to him: I would give Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Dunn and Gio Gonzalez for Pujols, Harper and Hosmer.

This is the way I see it right now:

CarGo > Pujols by a hair
Harper > Adam Dunn
Gio Gonzalez > Hosmer


Obviously, that could easily be different a year from now (which we would be thinking about since this is a keeper league) but I would say that is a fair assessment today. I would value Carlos Gonzalez over Pujols by a little bit, as CarGo is younger, provides stolen bases and hasn't struggled for any prolonged stretch in recent memory. Harper is more valuable than Adam Dunn obviously (moreso in keeper formats), though Dunn has some value since he is such a great contributor in home runs and RBIs. It is just a matter of stomaching the average. I do think Gio Gonzalez is worth more than Hosmer currently, as I think Gio has elevated himself this year into the top 15 and maybe the top 10 of all starting pitchers. Hosmer again does have excellent potential but you can't ignore his struggles this season and an OPS below .700 at 1st base won't cut it. He is certainly hitting better now and I would be expecting that to continue. The question for the future with him would be if he becomes a quick developer and reaches an all-star level quickly or is it more slow, steady growth ala teammate Billy Butler (who is just now reaching all-star level numbers in his 6th season at age 26).

So, what do you guys think? Is this is a fair counter offer on my part?
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Re: Offer CarGo/Dunn/Duda for Pujols/Harper/Hosmer??

Postby labarbatron » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:24 pm

That is a lot better. I can't believe he tried to do Hosmer for Hamels. No way, never.
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Re: Offer CarGo/Dunn/Duda for Pujols/Harper/Hosmer??

Postby mm92280 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:44 pm

I thought it was a pretty reasonable 2nd offer but he rejected it. He replied that Dunn wasn't keeper-worthy in his mind. I would agree that Dunn isn't a keeper but I would argue that he's already getting 2 keepers right now in Carlos Gonzalez and Gio Gonzalez (its a 20 teamer, we get to keep 5 players and Gio is certainly one of the 100 most valuable fantasy players right now) and I would be receiving 2 keepers in return in Pujols and Harper. Hosmer could be a keeper but he would have to absolutely turn it on over the next 3 months for me to view him in that light. He can try to spin Hosmer's potential all he wants but the bottom line is his year-to-date production and it certainly doesn't scream "keeper".

I emailed him and asked him for his thoughts on a counter proposal, since he didn't like Dunn. He obviously is okay with CarGo and Gio Gonzalez but wants a better player than Dunn. The only player that I would expect him to be thinking of in those terms would be Cole Hamels but I don't see any way that I'm giving him CarGo, Hamels and Gio Gonzalez. If that is his proposal, then I think I have to decline, as here is how I would look at it:

CarGo > Pujols - again it is just by a hair but I do think CarGo has more value at this point
Hamels > Harper - sure, you could argue that Harper could be better in 2 years but Hamels is a top 5 starting pitcher today and at least for the next few years, barring injury
Gio Gonzalez > Hosmer - yes, Hosmer has potential but a sub-.700 OPS and potential doesn't make him equal to a top 10-15 starting pitcher


That is the way I see it and I think that will be his counter-proposal. I think I would need to decline that, as I would take a big hit in pitching (which could partly be covered by trading Adam Dunn for a good quality starter) but I also believe I would be losing when comparing all 3 players, as noted above. Do you agree on disagree with my assessment?
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