12team, H2H weekly 6x6 roto; additional cats of BB-KO hitting, L, SV+HD. Can keep 10 players, move up 2 rounds from the previous year.
I've been offered Zobrist (2B/OF) and Cliff Lee for Hultzen and Cueto. I like it on the surface, but something is making me at least question it.
Zobrist brings insurance for Pedroia or can start at OF. He can be kept (1) more year in the 11th round. Lee won't be kept (would count as 1st rounder)...may be safer than Cueto for this year, but his numbers aren't awe inspiring. Cueto can be kept next year in 6th round if desired...marginal value. Good performance to date. Hultzen can be kept for 3 years; next year will be a 22nd, then 20th, and finally 18th.
Not necessarily thinking keepers at this point, but my no doubters are Lawrie, Stanton, Hosmer, Wainwright, Moore, and VMart. Hultzen will most likely be kept if I don't deal him.
This is a tough one because you're basically trading for the top prospect arm in Hultzen for the next 3 years.
A realistic bet would be you won't see tremendous ROI on Hultzen until the 2014 season right? Say even if he's called up in September, that won't be a long enough read. 2013 would be his first year and who knows how well that will go.
My mind goes to the Matt Moore's of the league who have all the talent in the world, but this early aren't Elite status (just yet).
On the flip side, the cost I see is giving up Zobrist. He's a mid-tier guy but his 2B, OF flexibility is huge. At 11th round that's very fair value imo, but more of a luxury right? You said it yourself he's a nice fill in for Pedroia when hurt.
CLee you'll only have for the remainder of the year, and unless he goes off the charts lights out, I don't see a huge opportunity cost there.
I'm leaning towards taking this offer IF you feel your 2B/3B will be intact and expectations set of Hultzen in '14. Cueto is icing if he continues his performance or improves even.
Correction I had the offer flip flopped. I think you sit on Hultzen and Cueto if the logic I just wrote makes sense. If you're looking to lock down a title now, then Zobrist/CLee would help immediately, but you'd be sacrificing Hultzen for the future.
If the deal didnt involve keepers, then id say you make the deal definetly. Lee gets more k's. Cueto has been inconsistent in the past and does not get many k's but does get wins.
But the reds are a much better team than the phillies and the phillies could be entering a rebuilding stage soon.
I agree with the guy above me.
Dont forget hultzen is very young and cliff lee is entering the dawn of his career(33 years old, same age as johan)
This all depends on if you're contending this year. What's your place in the standings? If you're in it, I'd say make the deal. If you're not competing this year and you're looking to the future, hold on to Hultzen, and even Cueto has upside in the future. He's young and getting better and better.
Thanks for looking at mine. I think the question you have to ask yourself is are you in contention to win this year. Hultzen is a top prospect but may not return dividends for a few years, so you have to look at if your team is in a win now situation or do you feel like you have a lot of good keepers that can make you a contender in a year or 2. The trade is for a win now type of deal for you, and the point of playing is ultimately to win, but you know best wether or not your team can win this year. If you feel strongly one way or the other, the answer is easier to come to.
midwestpatsfan wrote:Thanks for looking at mine. I think the question you have to ask yourself is are you in contention to win this year. Hultzen is a top prospect but may not return dividends for a few years, so you have to look at if your team is in a win now situation or do you feel like you have a lot of good keepers that can make you a contender in a year or 2. The trade is for a win now type of deal for you, and the point of playing is ultimately to win, but you know best wether or not your team can win this year. If you feel strongly one way or the other, the answer is easier to come to.
My team is pretty solid...probably a top 2-4 team in the league, anything can happen in the playoffs type of thing. Does this move put me over the edge or give me more consistency? I don't know.
For me, it comes down to whether I'll get enough out of the Lee for Cueto "upgrade" (if it is one) to make it worth giving up on Hultzen. Yeah, I get Zobrist too, but that is more of a hedge that he has to play better.
I like Cueto, but at the same time he makes me nervous when I watch him pitch. He seems to teeter on the edge quite a bit and the middling K-rate is worrisome. He's only a marginal value in the 6th so it comes down to this year.
Hultzen is highly regarded, but mostly because he was viewed as almost major league ready...and he plays for the Mariners. Good park, but in a league that penalizes losses it knocks him down a little.
midwestpatsfan wrote:Thanks for looking at mine. I think the question you have to ask yourself is are you in contention to win this year. Hultzen is a top prospect but may not return dividends for a few years, so you have to look at if your team is in a win now situation or do you feel like you have a lot of good keepers that can make you a contender in a year or 2. The trade is for a win now type of deal for you, and the point of playing is ultimately to win, but you know best wether or not your team can win this year. If you feel strongly one way or the other, the answer is easier to come to.
My team is pretty solid...probably a top 2-4 team in the league, anything can happen in the playoffs type of thing. Does this move put me over the edge or give me more consistency? I don't know.
For me, it comes down to whether I'll get enough out of the Lee for Cueto "upgrade" (if it is one) to make it worth giving up on Hultzen. Yeah, I get Zobrist too, but that is more of a hedge that he has to play better.
I like Cueto, but at the same time he makes me nervous when I watch him pitch. He seems to teeter on the edge quite a bit and the middling K-rate is worrisome. He's only a marginal value in the 6th so it comes down to this year.
Hultzen is highly regarded, but mostly because he was viewed as almost major league ready...and he plays for the Mariners. Good park, but in a league that penalizes losses it knocks him down a little.
If you're contemplating who's a better pitcher, Cueto or Lee, you've gotta be out of your mind, no offense. Cliff Lee is worlds better. Plus, there's talk that the Phils are gonna trade Lee and pay Hamels, so they're likely gonna trade him to a contender.
I agree with the previous poster... if you're going for it this year, you have to make this deal. I have more confidence in Lee, and Hultzen is far from a sure thing going forward. Zobrist isn't performing all that great, but like you said he's good insurance should Pedroia's injury linger, and that's a big plus if you're trying to win it all.
mayor quimby wrote:If you're contemplating who's a better pitcher, Cueto or Lee, you've gotta be out of your mind, no offense. Cliff Lee is worlds better. Plus, there's talk that the Phils are gonna trade Lee and pay Hamels, so they're likely gonna trade him to a contender.
If you're trying to win in 2012, make the deal.
I know that overall Lee is a better pitcher (though their FIPs are nearly identical and Cueto pitches for the better team)...just internal debate on whether the difference between the two means giving up on Hultzen. Thanks for the outside viewpoint. I'm leaning slightly toward the accept side now.
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by pjtroy34 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:35 am 
