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Postby Erboes » Sun Apr 04, 2004 8:17 am

mkooljr1 wrote:Erboes, as i've said time and time again, it's not whether you lucked into a correct projection based on faulty reasoning. But it's the sound reasoning behind your projections that is most important. And this information isn't on the site. Just because you have an out-there projection for Burroughs, and he does meet those projections, doesn't make you a great forecaster. You coulda closed your eyes and picked numbers for all we know. It's the reasoning behind the numbers, and sound reasoning using statistical support, to back up these projections, which i have yet to see.


As Tribe-fan said, we were hoping for some constructive criticism about the site as a whole and didn't want to get in arguments about the projections again. In our first thread about this I went over this repeatedly and answered your questions and I'm not going to do it again. I will say this, though, 95% of the players are based on a hard statistical analysis and I can defend everyone of them with facts that would back them up -- which I am sure most of the projections out there do not do -- but you have stumbled upon one that I isn't so easy to quantify.

You'll hear baseball people talk about from time to time a player's "growth year", which is the point when most of the learning is over and they start ascending to the player they are going to be. Most every player had them. A-Rod, Guerrero, Giambi, Blalock and Ensberg of last year, and I can go on and on. Pujols was the exception. This is as sure of a fact than any statistical analysis that you espouse.

If you project only on a player's first or second year for your projections you'll miss out repeatedly on those players who take the jump to fantasy studness because during their first year or two they usually struggle. What you need to do is look for those players with big time ability before they make that jump; otherwise, your projections aren't worth a damn.

Another player of this ilk is Victor Martinez. If you want to remember anything about our projections it is those two players. While other projections are imploring you to get Rolen and Posada, we're suggesting a more economical route in Burroughs and Martinez. They may not match the production of the first two, but it will be close enough that you'll be glad you saved the money there for other positions.

Mkool, you're a smart guy. Why don't you just download them and see how they are compared to others after the season is over. This argument is as big of a waste as arguing who's going to win the Series this year. We stand by them and are confident you won't find any better.
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Postby mkooljr1 » Mon Apr 05, 2004 1:50 am

Thanks for the nice response Erboes, I just would have liked to see reasonings on the site. A good site won't just spew numbers at you, they will tell you why they believe their projection is good. And if you added that to your site, even just the "out-there" projections, that would improve the site greatly. I don't believe your current explanations on the site now for your out-there players are very good, to tell you the truth.
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Postby Erboes » Mon Apr 05, 2004 8:21 am

Mkool,

You have mention repeatedly projection services displaying their formulas for their projections. Could you please tell me who they are? I have yet to anyone do this entirely, but evidently you have.
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