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Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

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Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby bobnerns » Sun Jun 10, 2012 11:46 pm

12-team 5x5 H2H redraft. I've been given an offer of his Tim Lincecum for my AJ Burnett (from a Pirates fan). I feel silly asking because at any other point in the past 5 years this would be a ridiculous question, but should I take this deal?

If you remove AJ Burnett's one start in St. Louis on May 2 where he gave up 12 runs in 2.2 IP, Burnett has registered a 1.960 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 8.145 K/9 and 2.842 K/BB.

On the other end, Lincecum has a 6.00 ERA and 1.58 WHIP (granted a 9.625 K/9).

So would you be buying low on Lincecum or avoiding him like the plague?

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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby MaudDib » Mon Jun 11, 2012 10:30 am

I think it is worth the risk. I will say I am worried about Lincecum and there aren't a lot signs that he is going to improve but this is a pretty cheap price from what his value could be. I personally make the move because if Lincecum turns it around then your team is immediately a championship contender. There is a good chance that Lincecum doesn't and you end up wishing you had kept Burnett. But I really don't think Burnett is going to be this good all year so while you might not be happy with what Lincecum does for you, you won't be that upset about losing Burnett.
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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby acertijo » Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:03 am

I agree that it's a trade worth making. The potential benefit of Lincecum coming around is tremendous. Given that Burnett plays for the Pirates, wins will be tough to come by and I followed him enough with the Yankees to have seen his considerable downside. Maybe he continues to thrive with a small market NL team, but I'd be willing to take that chance to get Lincecum.

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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby ATLbraves » Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:07 am

At the least Tim Lincecum should put up similar numbers to Burnett, IMO. If Tim turns it around, then you win BIG time.

So I would definitely make this move.
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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby MashinSpuds » Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:41 am

Counter offer by asking him to throw in someone with Lincecum. ;)

I would do it because it's worth the gamble. If it doesn't work out you should be able to find another Burnett somewhere easily enough.
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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby MaudDib » Mon Jun 11, 2012 12:19 pm

MashinSpuds wrote:Counter offer by asking him to throw in someone with Lincecum. ;)

I would do it because it's worth the gamble. If it doesn't work out you should be able to find another Burnett somewhere easily enough.

:-D Who would have made that bet coming into the season. That in some leagues Lincecum might not be enough to get you Burnett.
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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby ATLbraves » Mon Jun 11, 2012 1:15 pm

MaudDib wrote:
MashinSpuds wrote:Counter offer by asking him to throw in someone with Lincecum. ;)

I would do it because it's worth the gamble. If it doesn't work out you should be able to find another Burnett somewhere easily enough.

:-D Who would have made that bet coming into the season. That in some leagues Lincecum might not be enough to get you Burnett.

Yeah very true. Even tho I do believe Burnett has always had the stuff to be as good of a pitcher as Lincecum, he has just never been able to harness it.
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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby MashinSpuds » Mon Jun 11, 2012 2:20 pm

Back in 2008, Lincecum had a stellar break out year while Burnett threw 230+ K's with 18 wins for the Blue Jays. That was the last official time when these two guys were considered in the same trade sentence together without causing laughter. Four years later ...
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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby mcmbpd » Mon Jun 11, 2012 2:42 pm

I agree, the potential benefit here far outweighs the risk. I've been contemplating adding Burnett for a while now in a 12 team mixed H2H league. I've held off this long simply because I already own James McDonald and that would be waaaay too many Pirates starters for my taste...keep in mind that I'm an O's fan so I feel your pain, lol :-D Many "experts" are calling for a rebound from Lincecum, propping him up as a prime buy-low candidate. I've got the extra innings package and I've watched all of Lincecum starts, especially those against the Dodgers, my NL team. I haven't seen anything that indicates that Lincecum is going to magically turn things around...I also don't see anything that points to some unknown injury lying below the surface. All I see is a guy who has been a rock in the past, but has now averaged 220 IP/season over the last four years. And while he's only 26 yrs old he reminds me of another ace who started to break down around the same age, maybe you've heard of him: Jake Peavy. I think we are simly witnessing the decline of Tim Lincecum and his "big" injury is coming very soon. That being said I don't see that happening this year and I believe he will rebound somewhat. His numbers will not come anywhere close to his previous seasons though. I'd look for numbers that will at the very least be comparable to Burnett for the rest of the season...so you make the deal because of that and just hope for an even bigger rebound. Like you said, in the past you wouldn't have even thought twice about this deal....giventhe current situation though I think your trepedation is justified. But the gamble is worth it for someone as wildly unpredictable as Burnett.
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Re: Tim Lincecum for AJ Burnett WHIR

Postby DLRBusiness » Mon Jun 11, 2012 5:37 pm

getting lincecum is worth the risk. definetely get lincecum.
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