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Postby LBJackal » Sat Apr 03, 2004 3:56 pm

You'll take Peavy over Millwood? Peavy will be lucky to get an ERA below 4, won't K a lot, won't have a good WHIP, and won't get as many wins as Millwood. People over-value youth so much it's unbelievable. Peavy's potential is what Millwood is right now. And that's if everything goes right, and even if it does, it 's still a few years away.

Having potential to be a good starter and actually being one are totally different things. Peavy is a 4th or 5th starter, and if you rely on anything more than that from him prepare to be disappoined. Millwood is a decent #2 starter. Big difference.

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Postby Spartans Rule » Sat Apr 03, 2004 4:26 pm

Yikes, Peavy over Millwood? I'm a big Peavy fan but thats crazy. Millwood's K/BB ratio was excellent last year and he's very capable of a return to 2002 form. Like Jackal said, Peavy's upside is what Millwood already is.
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Postby Ridgerunner » Sat Apr 03, 2004 4:28 pm

Peavey could be a number three starter in fantasy.....That is if one already had Pedro and Schilling
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Postby Guest » Sat Apr 03, 2004 4:39 pm

Millwood: 4.01 1.25 WHIP 14-12 222 IP 169 K's
Peavy: 4.11 1.31 WHIP 12-11 194 IP 156 K's

Please don't pull the "down year" card. Seems 3 of his last 4 years have been down.

I'll wait 6-8 rounds later for Peavy or spend $10+ less.

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Postby mkooljr1 » Sat Apr 03, 2004 4:47 pm

Guest, you're spitting out the wrong stats. Millwood had a much better walk rate, a slightly lower K rate, and almost half Peavy's HR rate. You seem to be ignoring that Peavy gave up 1.5 HR/9. That's beyond AWFUL for a starter. And this in a pitcher's park! For Peavy to break out, he needs to reverse the trend of his declining K rate, decrease his walk rate back to around 3, and get his HR rate down to around 1. That's a lotta improvements he must make before he could breakout. You wanna draft him before Millwood banking on him improving in all 3 of his skill metrics?? Too many needed improvements to expect a breakout. And i have to admit, i love when people pick an arbitrary 1 or 2 month period of good eras to point to an expected breakout. I could pick 1 or 2 months for any pitcher of their best era and say they will breakout!
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Postby Guest » Sat Apr 03, 2004 4:53 pm

mkooljr1 wrote:I could pick 1 or 2 months for any pitcher of their best era and say they will breakout!

Millwood was a BUST last year. He had no other options but remaining with the Phillies.

Peavy had one bad month -- the rest were solid. I'm not saying he'll "breakout", I'm saying he'll be as good if not better than the much overpaid Kevin Millwood.

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Postby wrveres » Sat Apr 03, 2004 7:18 pm

LBJ, I have rarely known you to change your mind .. You battle with the best of them ...

Jacob Peavy just completed his first full season in the Big Leagues at age 22. He never saw AAA, he came straight up from AA. During his entire career he has enjoyed a 3/1 K/BB ratio, including his callup in 2002 against big league pitchers. Last year, on a very awful Padres team, he still managed to finish above .500. He had one horible month last year, July, which coincedently .... he was injured with a sore obligue and still pitched through it ...

he finished up the season facing Big Leaguers that had now seen him three or four times, but he still posted 1.07 whip in AUG and a 1.16 WHIP in September, bad oblique and all.

But what really strikes me funny, is that you are critical of people saying "Look at his last two months" but yet disregard him because his over all numbers look "bad" because of one "injured" month.

if you take out his injured month, that he pitched through mind you..

he posts a 3.53 ERA and a 1.23 ratio .... for the year for the last place Padres ...

while the homeruns are a concern at age 22, he will quickly learn and ......

He will be better than Millwood. maybe even in 2004.
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