I think Peavy will turn in a pretty decent year. Around 3.75 era, 13-14 wins, and quite a few k's. Not bad at all from a #4 or #5 starter. Plus the potential of a solid breakout is there. Worth the shot in my opinion.
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giants8307 wrote:Petco park is a pitchers park, according to preliminary reports.
Uhh, Qualcomm was a pitcher's park too. Even if Petco IS a pitcher's park, it won't be as friendly as Qualcomm was.
hybrid wrote:haven't you heard that you can't base everything on mere statistics? also it seems if you were a big peavy fan you would know why his K rate went down. his pitch counts were high as account of trying to strike out hitters, so in a move that he made that shows his progress as a pitcher that not only has great stuff but also thinks. he went ahead and didn't try to strike out every batter, he let them but the ball in play more to have better pitch counts. listen you just can't look at stats, if you do you will miss lots of things.
Ok, so let's pretend you're right and he stopped trying to K hitters. So tell me this- how come his walk rate increased? You'd think by letting the hitters put the ball into play more, he'd have better control, right? And yes, i've heard you can't base everything on statistics, but that's usually spouted by people like you who have no idea what stats to look at and what each stats means. Which is exactly what you proved in your post, you don't understand how to use stats.
again you don't look at anything besides stats, don't you remember he had an injury? that could of quite easily effected his control, don't you think?
ok took what you said was correct but i don't see what you mean by increasing walk rate.
first 2 months 58 1/3 IP 30 BB
second 2 months 60 2/3 IP 27 BB
last 2 months 65 2/3 25 BB
so it looks to me he had better control as the season progressed w/ even more IP's each time. the only thing i guess you mean is his walk rate from his first year in the league to this last year. it's also sometimes common that pitchers don't do as well their second time around a league as hitters adjust to them and learn to lay off certain pitches. you take of his first 2 months and really is walk rate wasn't that different from his rookie year.
fine, all ya guys stay away, stay very far away from all those Padres ... Go draft Jorge De Paula instead ... he is a Yankee so he must be good .. right?
wr, is there any REASON for us to think optimistically about Peavy?
His walk rate went from 3 BB/9 to almost 4 BB/9, while his K's decreased. He doesn't have a great WHIP either. Maybe if you guys explained why you think so highly of him, people wouldn't disagree with it.
And "I watched him pitch and think he'll be good" isn't the kind of reasoning I'm looking for. So far all I've seen are excuses for why he was wasn't good.
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LBJackal wrote:is there any REASON for us to think optimistically about Peavy?
How about a 22-year old kid having a 4.1 ERA 1.31 WHIP with an improved lineup this year???
How about a 3.02 ERA 58 K's in his final 65 2/3 innings??
Oh god no, that declining K rate....is scary!!! He only struck out 156 in 194.2 IP. I'm sure you were bashing Maddux at 22 also because his K rate was low. (249 IP, 140 K's)
No one here is saying he'll be the best SP in baseball. Go draft the flavor of the day Jeremy Affeldt, watch him get blisters, and make a post here crying about how you should of drafted Peavy over him.
LBJackal wrote:is there any REASON for us to think optimistically about Peavy?
How about a 22-year old kid having a 4.1 ERA 1.31 WHIP with an improved lineup this year???
How about a 3.02 ERA 58 K's in his final 65 2/3 innings??
Oh god no, that declining K rate....is scary!!! He only struck out 156 in 194.2 IP. I'm sure you were bashing Maddux at 22 also because his K rate was low. (249 IP, 140 K's)
Some good points, although you could have done without the personal attacks and foul language hiding behind the guest name. Weak.
Peavy turned 22 last May. He had one bad month but really came on strong down the stretch. His K rate may have fallen a little bit, but 7.2 per 9 IP is still very respectable. I think he's capable of posting numbers similar to last year's August and September over the course of a full season.
Umm maddux was never a strikeout pitcher, so he wouldnt have a great K rate. Also Affledt had offseason surgery to remove his fingernails, solving the blister problem. As for peavy, i think he will be fine as a 4th or 5th starter.
Just because in one third of the season he was good doesn't make him any better than other guys who post similar numbers. How about the middle third of the season when he had a 5.40 ERA and 37 K's in 60 IP? Of course he'll be good if you only look at his good months.
I'm saying, what separates him from other young pitchers who have mediocre stats? He doesn't have a good WHIP or K/9, which are usually signs of future success, so what reason is there for me to believe those stats will increase?
Obviously he is capable of a 4.00 ERA and 150 K's, but people are talking so highly about him and comparing him to Greg Maddux.
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by Madison » Sat Apr 03, 2004 2:10 pm 
