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Determining when a player is 'For Real'

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How long does it take for you to declare someone 'for real'?

Poll ended at Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:17 am

One month
No votes
Two months
Half a season
One full season
No votes
Two full seasons
More than two full seasons
No votes
Total votes : 8

Determining when a player is 'For Real'

Postby MashinSpuds » Wed Jun 06, 2012 9:17 am

Every year players come out of the woodwork and start hitting or pitching like superstars. Some players fizzle after a week, a month, or half a season. Others, like Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols, never stop. However, every year fantasy baseball managers hem and haw over whether or not a player is worth picking up, trading for, or keeping given a sample size of statistical data. Everyone is different in their evaluation of how much of a sample set is needed to determine if a player has arrived or not.

If the sample size of statistics is favorable, how long does it take for you to declare that a player has become 'for real'?
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Re: Determining when a player is 'For Real'

Postby J35J » Wed Jun 06, 2012 10:23 am

The answer to that is not the same for every player...a couple of important questions to ask for each player...

How old is the player?
What was and is his pedigree?
What league and competition is/was he facing and at what age was he doing it at?
How was he actually performing compared to his pedigree/hype?

...there are other questions to ask and things to look at but knowing the answers to the above questions is a good place to start ..there will always be exceptions but at least it's a good start.
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Re: Determining when a player is 'For Real'

Postby Ender » Wed Jun 06, 2012 1:56 pm

If you just stuck a players stats in front of me I'd answer 2 full seasons. There are plenty of cases where I'll buy in from a lot less than that though.
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